Estimation of Tax Loss and Evasion in Turkey with Data Mining Process

Abstract

Tax losses and evasion are one of the biggest problems in our country as well as all over the world. In addition to audits, statistical techniques and machine learning algorithms are also of great importance in detecting tax losses and evasion. In this study, the tax loss and evasion rate has been estimated by the data mining process depending on factors such as inflation rate, unemployment, tax burden, trade openness, economic growth (GDP), and the size of government. Twelve modeling techniques were used in the data mining process. The results obtained from each model were compared and the best model was determined using some statistical indicators. Accordingly, the Gaussian processes model gave the most successful result in estimating tax loss and evasion rate, with R2, MAE and RMSE values of 0.931, 0.2356 and 0.2473, respectively. The weight values of the variables affecting the tax loss and evasion rate were determined by sensitivity analysis. It has been observed that the factors with the highest positive effect on tax losses and evasion are unemployment and inflation rates. These factors are followed by tax burden and GDP values. It was seen that the size of government and the trade openness factors had a negative effect on the tax loss and evasion rate. It is thought that the results obtained from the study will contribute to the estimation of the tax loss and evasion rate in our country.

Keywords

• Tax loss
• Tax evasion
• Data mining

Veri Madenciliği Süreci ile Türkiye'de Vergi Kayıp ve Kaçakların Tahmini

Öz

Vergi kayıp ve kaçakları tüm dünyada olduğu gibi ülkemizde de en büyük sorunlardan biridir. Denetimlerin yanı sıra, istatistiksel teknikler ve makine öğrenimi algoritmaları da vergi kayıp ve kaçaklarının tespitinde büyük önem taşımaktadır. Bu çalışmada vergi kayıp ve kaçak oranı; enflasyon oranı, işsizlik, vergi yükü, cari açık, ekonomik büyüme (GSYİH), devletin büyüklüğü gibi faktörlere bağlı olarak veri madenciliği süreci ile tahmin edilmiştir. Veri madenciliği sürecinde on iki modelleme tekniği kullanılmıştır. Her modelden elde edilen sonuçlar karşılaştırılmış ve bazı istatistiksel göstergeler kullanılarak en iyi model belirlenmiştir. Buna göre, vergi kayıp ve kaçak oranı tahmininde en başarılı sonucu R2, MAE ve RMSE değerleri sırasıyla 0,931, 0,2356 ve 0,2473 olan Gaussian processes modeli vermiştir. Vergi kayıp ve kaçak oranını etkileyen değişkenlerin ağırlık değerleri duyarlılık analizi ile belirlenmiştir. Vergi kayıp ve kaçaklarında pozitif etkisi en yüksek olan faktörlerin işsizlik ve enflasyon oranları olduğu görülmüştür. Bu faktörleri vergi yükü ve GSYİH değerleri izlemektedir. Devletin büyüklüğü ve cari açık faktörlerinin ise vergi kayıp ve kaçak oranı üzerinde negatif etkiye sahip olduğu görülmüştür. Çalışmadan elde edilen sonuçların ülkemizdeki vergi kayıp ve kaçak oranının tahmin edilmesine katkı sağlayacağı düşünülmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Vergi kaybı
• Vergi kaçağı
• Veri madenciliği

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