Sürdürülebilirlik Mümkün Mü? Türkiye’de Büyüme, Finansal Gelişme ve Askeri Harcamalar Arasında Fourier Temelli Bir Denge Arayışı

Abstract

Bu çalışma, Türkiye ekonomisine ilişkin 1970–2022 dönemini kapsayan veriler ışığında, ekonomik büyüme, finansal gelişme ve askeri harcamaların çevresel sürdürülebilirlik üzerindeki etkilerini Yük Kapasite Faktörü (LCF) çerçevesinde ampirik olarak analiz etmektedir. Ampirik analizde, yapısal kırılmaları ve doğrusal olmayan eğilimleri dikkate alabilen Fourier tabanlı birim kök, eşbütünleşme ve dinamik en küçük kareler (DOLS) yöntemlerinden yararlanılmıştır. Elde edilen bulgular, söz konusu üç makroekonomik değişkenin çevresel sürdürülebilirlik üzerinde uzun vadede istatistiksel olarak anlamlı ve negatif yönlü etkiler yarattığını ortaya koymaktadır. Fourier terimlerinin anlamlılığı ise, çevre-ekonomi ilişkisinde yapısal dalgalanmaların belirleyici rol oynadığını göstermektedir. Bu kapsamda çalışma, sürdürülebilir büyüme, yeşil finansman ve çevre dostu savunma politikalarının önemine vurgu yapmakta; çevresel sınırları gözeten bütüncül bir makroekonomik politika tasarımının gerekliliğini ortaya koymaktadır. Fourier temelli ekonometrik tekniklerin uygulanması bakımından da literatüre yöntemsel katkı sağlayan bu çalışma, çevresel sürdürülebilirliğin çok boyutlu belirleyicilerine dair önemli bulgular sunmaktadır.

Keywords

• Çevresel Kalite
• Ekonomik Büyüme
• Finansal Gelişme
• Askeri Harcamalar
• Fourier Temelli Ampirik Analiz

Is Sustainability Possible? A Fourier-Based Quest for Balance Among Growth, Financial Development, and Military Expenditures in Türkiye

Abstract

This study empirically analyzes the impact of economic growth, financial development, and military expenditures on environmental sustainability within the framework of the Load Capacity Factor (LCF), using data for Türkiye covering the period 1970–2022. The empirical strategy employs Fourier-based unit root, cointegration, and dynamic ordinary least squares (DOLS) methods, which account for structural breaks and nonlinear trends. The results indicate that all three macroeconomic variables have statistically significant and negative long-run effects on environmental sustainability. Furthermore, the statistical significance of the Fourier terms suggests that structural fluctuations play a decisive role in shaping the relationship between the economy and the environment. In this context, the study highlights the importance of sustainable growth, green finance, and environmentally responsible defense strategies, emphasizing the necessity of a holistic macroeconomic policy framework that respects ecological limits. By incorporating Fourier-based econometric techniques, the study also provides a methodological contribution to the literature and offers novel insights into the multidimensional determinants of environmental sustainability.

Keywords

• Environmental Quality
• Economic Growth
• Financial Development
• Military Expenditures
• Fourier-Based Empirical Analysis

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