Testing Import-Led Growth Hypothesis in North Cyprus: An Empirical Investigation From Cointegration and Causality Tests

Year 2011, Volume: 2 Issue: 2, 27 - 38, 01.08.2011

Salih Katırcıoğlu Elif Katırcıoğlu

Abstract

Mevcut çalışma, Türkiye Cumhuriyeti’nden başka bir ülke tarafından tanınmayan ve 40 yıldan fazla bir süredir, Kıbrıs sorunun çözümsüzlüğünden dolayı ekonomik sancıları yaşayan, Kuzey Kıbrıs Türk Cumhuriyeti’nde, İthalat’a Dayalı Büyüme Hipotezi’ni test etmeyi hedeflemektedir. Mevcut çalışmada uygulanan eşbütünleme testleri, ithalat ile reel gelir arasında uzun dönemli bir denge ilişkisinin olduğunu ortaya koymaktadır; ithalat'ın katkısı ile reel gelir uzun dönem dengesine 99%’luk hızla yaklaşmaktadır. Fakat, Granger nedensellik testleri, Kuzey Kıbrıs için ithalata dayalı büyüme hipotezinin varlığını onaylamamaktadır

Keywords

İthalata Dayalı Büyüme, Ekonomik Büyüme, Eşbütünleme

References

• Cheung, Y. and Lai, K. (1993), “Finite-sample sizes of Johansen’s likelihood ratio tests for co-integration”, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, August, 313- 328.
• Deme, M. (2002), “An examination of the trade-led growth hypothesis in Nigeria: A co-integration, causality, and impulse response analysis”, The Journal of Developing Areas, 36/1, 1-15.
• Dickey, D. and Fuller, W. A. (1981), “Likelihood ratio statistics for autoregressive time series with a unit root”, Econometrica, 49, 1057-1072.
• Engle, R. F. and Granger, C. W. J. (1987), “Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation and testing”, Econometrica, 55, 251-76.
• Gonzalo, J. (1994), “Five alternative methods of estimating long-run equilibrium relationships”, Journal of Econometrics, 60, 203-33.
• Gujarati, D. N. (2003), Basic Econometrics, 4th Edition, Mc Graw-Hill International.
• Jenkins, H. P. and Katircioglu, S. (2010), “The Bounds Test Approach for Cointegration and Causality between Financial Development, International Trade and Economic Growth: The Case of Cyprus”, Applied Economics, 42 (13): 1699- 1707.
• Johansen, S. (1988), “Statistical analysis of co-integrating vectors”, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 12, 231-54.
• Johansen, S. and Juselius, K. (1990), “Maximum likelihood estimation and inference on co-integration with application to the demand for money”, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 52, 169-221.
• Katircioglu, S. (2009), “Revisiting the Tourism-led-growth Hypothesis for Turkey Using the Bounds Test and Johansen Approach for Cointegration”, Tourism Management, 30/1, 17-20.
• Katircioglu, S. (2010a), “Trade and Growth in a Non-Recognized Small Island State: Evidence from the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus”, Journal of Business Economics and Management, 11/1, 112-130.
• Katircioglu, S. (2010b), “International Tourism, Higher Education, and Economic Growth: the Case of North Cyprus”, The World Economy, 33/12, 1955-1972.
• Kremers, J. M., Erisccos, N. R. and Dolado, J. J. (1992), “The power of cointegration tests”, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 54, 325-46.
• Kuznets, S. (1966), Economic Growth of Small Nations, the Modern Economic Growth, Yale University Press: London.
• Osterwald-Lenum, M. (1992), “A note with quantiles of the asymptotic distribution of the ML co-integration rank tests statistics”, Oxford Bulletin of Economic and Statistics, 54, 461-72.
• Phillips, P. C. B. and Perron, P. (1988), “Testing for a unit root in time series regression”, Biometrica, 75, 335-346.
• State Planning Organization (SPO) (2011), Economic And Social Indicators, North Cyprus: Follow Up And Coordination Department, Prime Ministry, Nicosia