Asymmetrical Effects Of Interest Rates On The Money Demand Function In Turkey

Öz

Central banks need to have an effective monetary policy in order to achieve their goals. For having an effective monetary policy, a stable and predictable money demand function is required. In this context, purpose of this study is determined stability of money demand function and asymmetric effect of interest rates on the money demand function in Turkey over the period 2005Q04-2019Q03. For this goal we cried out non-linear autoregressive distributed lag approach (NARDL) developed by (Greenwood-Nimmo, Shin, and Treeck 2010) and (Shin, Yu, and Greenwood-Nimmo 2013). According to the results, the effect of interest ratepos and income on long run money supply are positive. While interest rateneg and exchange rate effect negatively. In addition, according the results money demand function in Turkey is stable and our finding and estimated function is consistent with monetarist approach which believes for haveing an effective monetary policy, a stable money demand function is required.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Money Demand Function,Non-Linear Autoregressive Distributed Lag Approach (NARDL),Internet Rate

Türkiye’de Para Talebi Fonksiyonu ve Faiz Oranının Simetrik Etkisi

Öz

Merkez bankalarının belirledikleri hedeflere ulaşabilmeleri için etkin bir para politikasına sahip olmaları gerekmektedir. Etkin bir para politikasına sahip olmak için de istikrarlı ve öngörülebilir bir para talep fonksiyonu gerekmektedir. Bu bağlamda, bu çalışmanın amacı doğrultusunda, 2005Q04-2019Q03 üç aylık verilerini kullanarak Türkiye’de faiz oranının para talebi fonksiyonuna olan asimetrik etkisi araştırılmıştır. Bu çalışmada (Greenwood-Nimmo, Shin, and Treeck 2010) ve (Shin, Yu, and Greenwood-Nimmo 2013) tarafından geliştirilen Çoğaltıcı Doğrusal Olmayan ve NLARDL sınır testi (Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag Bound Test) yöntemi kullanılmıştır. Sonuçlara göre uzun dönemdeki gelir, faizpos oranı doğrusal ve pozitif yönde etkiler bırakırken faizneg oranı ve döviz kuru negatif yönde etkilemiştir. Ayrıca, tahmin edilen model bulguları etkin bir para politikası için istikrarlı para talebi fonksiyonunun gerekliliğini savunan monetarist yaklaşımı desteklemektedir ve Türkiye’de para talebinin istikrarlı olduğunu onaylamaktadır. İstikrarlı bir para talebi, merkez bankasının para politikasını kontrol ederek reel ekonomiyi etkileyebileceğini göstermektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Para Talebi Fonksiyonu,Doğrusal Olmayan Otoregresif Dağıtılmış Gecikme Yaklaşımı (NARDL),Faiz Oranı

Kaynakça

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