ASYMMETRIC IMPACT OF OIL PRICES ON EXCHANGE RATE AND STOCK PRICES: THE CASE OF TURKEY

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the asymmetric impact of oil price changes on the Turkish Stock Market (BISTALL) and the exchange rate (Dollar/Lira) by applying the NARDL model. The sample period starts in January 2010 and ends in June 2019, yielding a total of 114 observations. The findings of the empirical analysis suggest that in the long run an increase (a decrease) in oil prices does not have any impact on both the stock market returns of the Turkish Stock Market and the exchange rate in Turkey. This result indicates that the Turkish market is not very sensitive to the changes in oil price changes. In the short run, however, the asymmetry of oil price fluctuations is observed for both models.

Keywords

• Nonlinear ARDL (NARDL),oil prices,stock prices,exchange rate

PETROL FİYATLARININ DÖVİZ KURU VE HİSSE SENEDİ GETİRİLERİ ÜZERİNDEKİ ASİMETRİK ETKİSİ: TÜRKİYE ÖRNEĞİ

Abstract

Bu çalışmanın amacı, Türkiye’de Ocak, 2010 – Haziran, 2019 dönemi aylık veriler kullanılarak petrol fiyatlarının döviz kuru (Dolar/TL) ve Borsa İstanbul (BİSTTÜM) fiyatları üzerindeki asimetrik etkisi doğrusal olmayan ARDL eşbütünleşme (NARDL) yöntemiyle analiz etmektir. Çalışmadan elde edilen bulgular sonucunda, petrol fiyatlarında meydana gelen hem pozitif hem de negatif değişmeler hisse senedi fiyatlarını ve döviz kurunu uzun dönemde istatistiksel olarak etkilememektedir. Bu sonuçla, petrol fiyatlarından hisse senedi fiyatları ve döviz kuruna doğru herhangi bir asimetrik aktarım bulunamamıştır ve bu durum Türkiye’de hem hisse senedi fiyatlarının hem de döviz kurunun petrol fiyatı şoklarına karşı duyarsız olduğunu göstermektedir. Son olarak, her iki model için petrol fiyatlarında kısa dönemde meydana gelen dalgalanmalar asimetrik etkiye neden olmaktadır

Keywords

• Asimetrik ARDL,petrol fiyatları,hisse senedi fiyatları,döviz kuru

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