MAINTAINABILITY OF THE RUSSIAN CURRENT ACCOUNT: HEPSAĞ, FADF, FKSS UNIT ROOT TESTS

Year 2021, Volume: 6 Issue: 4, 699 - 708, 31.12.2021

Yılmaz Toktaş

Abstract

The foreign trade structure of Russia consists of two product bases that have an important place in the world economy, such as crude oil and gas. Russia has not encountered current account deficits during the study period, which is one of the main problems that transition economies are experiencing during the transition to the market-led system. The main purpose of the study is to examine the sustainability of Russia's current account in the period 2003Q1-2020Q1 with Hepsağ (2021), FADF and FKSS unit root tests. As a result of the Hepsağ unit root test with ADF and CSR tests applied to compare in the study, it was found that the current account of Russia is not stable, that is, the current account is unsustainable. As a result of the FADF and FKSS tests, it was determined that the current account is stable, as well as the current account of Russia is sustainable. Considering the changes that may occur in Russia's energy exports in the future along with the changes in energy policies in the world

Keywords

current account, russia, sustainability

RUSYA CARİ İŞLEMLER HESABININ SÜRDÜRÜLEBİLİRLİĞİ: HEPSAĞ, FADF, FKSS BİRİM KÖK TESTLERİ

Abstract

Rusya’nın dış ticaret yapısı crude oil ve gas gibi dünya ekonomisinde önemli yere sahip iki ürün temelinden oluşmaktadır. Geçiş ekonomilerinin market-led sisteme geçiş süreçlerinde yaşadıkları temel sorunlardan biri olan car işlemler hesabı açıklarıyla çalışma dönemi boyunca Rusya karşılaşmamıştır. Çalışmanın temel amacı 2003Q1-2020Q1 döneminde Rusya’nın Cari işlemler hesabının sürdürülebilirliğinin Hepsağ (2021), FADF ve FKSS birim kök testleriyle incelemektedir. Çalışmada karşılaştırma yapmak üzere uygulanan ADF ve KSS testleriyle Hepsağ birim kök testi sonucunda Rusya’nın cari işlemler hesabının durağan olmadığı yani cari işlemler hesabının sürdürülemez olduğu soncunda ulaşılmıştır. FADF ve FKSS testleri sonucunda ise cari işlemler hesabının durağan olduğu yanı Rusya’nın cari işlemler hesabının sürdürülebilir olduğu tespit edilmiştir. Dünya’daki enerji politikalarında meydana gelen değişimlerle birlikte ileride Rusya’nın enerji ihracatında meydana gelebilecek değişimlerde göz önüne alındığında konunun önemi ortaya çıkmaktadır.

Keywords

Cari İşlemler Hesabı, Rusya, Fourier Birim Kök testleri, Nonlinear Birim Kök Testi

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