Dış Borç ve Askeri Harcamalar İlişkisi: Seçilmiş Orta Doğu Ülkeleri Üzerine Ekonometrik Bir Çalışma

Abstract

Bu çalışma seçilmiş 5 Orta Doğu ülkesinin (İran, Lübnan, Mısır, Türkiye ve Ürdün) özelinde dış borçlar ve askeri harcamalar ilişkisini, 1990-2019 dönemi için yıllık veri seti kullanarak ampirik olarak analiz etmeyi amaçlamaktadır. Dış borçlar ve askeri harcamalar arasındaki nedensellik ilişkisi Kónya’nın (2006) Bootstrap panel Granger nedensellik analizinden istifade edilerek araştırılmıştır. Analiz sonucuna göre Türkiye için dış borçtan askeri harcamalara doğru tek yönlü bir nedensellik ilişkisinin olduğu; İran ve Mısır için çift yönlü bir nedensellik ilişkisi olduğu tespit edilmiştir. Lübnan ve Ürdün için ise böyle bir ilişkinin olmadığı görülmüştür.

Keywords

• Dış Borçlar
• Askeri Harcamalar
• Bootstrap Panel Granger Nedensellik Analizi
• Orta Doğu Ülkeleri

The Relation of External Debt and Military Expenditures: An Econometric Study on Selected Middle East Countries

Abstract

This study aims to analyze empirically the nexus among, external debt and military expenditures in the context of selected 5 Middle East countries (Iran, Lebanon, Egypt, Turkey and Jordan) by using annual data set for the period 1990-2019. The causality relationship between external debt and military expenditures has been investigated by utilizing Kónya's (2006) Bootstrap panel Granger causality analysis. The results of the analysis was determined there exists a one-way causality running from external debt to military expenditures for Turkey; two-way causality relation for Iran and Egypt. But there is no such relationship for Lebanon and Jordan.

Keywords

• External Debt
• Military Expenditures
• Bootstrap Panel Granger Causality Analysis
• Middle East Countries

References

1. Abdelfattah, Yasmine M., Aamer S. Abu-Qarn, J. Paul Dunne and Shadwa Zaher (2014), “The Demand for Military Spending in Egypt”, Defence and Peace Economics, Volume: 25, Issue: 3, p. 231-245.
2. Ahmed, Abdullahi D. (2012), “Debt Burden, Military Spending and Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Dynamic Panel Data Analysis”, Defence and Peace Economics, Volume: 23, Issue: 5, p. 485–506.
3. Alexander, W. Robert J. (2013) “The Defence-Debt Nexus: Evidence From The High-Income Members of Nato”, Defence and Peace Economics, Volume: 24, Issue: 2, p. 133-145.
4. Ali, Hamid E. (2012), “Military Expenditures and Inequality in The Middle East and North Africa: A Panel Analysis”, Defence and Peace Economics, Volume: 23, Issue: 6, p. 575- 589.
5. Alptekin, Aynur and Paul Levine (2012), “Military Expenditure and Economic Growth: A Meta-analysis”, European Journal of Political Economy, Volume: 28, Issue: 4, p. 636- 650.
6. Araji, Salim, Vladimir Hlasny, Layal Mansour Ichrakieh and Vito Intini (2019), “Targeting Debt in Lebanon: A Structural Macro-econometric Model”, Middle East Development Journal, Volume: 11, Issue: 1, p. 75-104.
7. Azadi, Pooya (2019), “Governance and Development in Iran”, Stanford University-Stanford Iran 2040 Project, Working Paper No: 8, 1-58, https://iranian- studies.stanford.edu/sites/g/files/sbiybj6191/f/publications/governance-and-development-in-iran.pdf (Erişim Tarihi: 28.10.2020).
8. Azadi, Pooya and Matin Mirramezani (2019), “Iran’s Large and Growing Financing Gap”, Stanford University-Stanford Iran 2040 Project, iranian- studies.stanford.edu/iran2040, https://iranian-studies.stanford.edu/iran-2040 project/publications/Irans_large_and_growing_financing_gap (Erişim Tarihi: 28.10.2020).

9. Azam, Muhammad and Yi Feng (2017). Does Military Expenditure Increase External Debt? Evidence From Asia”, Defence and Peace Economics, Volume: 28, Issue: 5, p.550- 567.
10. Brzoska, Michael (1983), “Research Communication: The Military Related External Debt of Third World Countries.” Journal of Peace Research, Volume: 20, Issue: 3, p. 271-277.
11. Dimitraki, Ourania and Sandar Win (2020), “Military Expenditure Economic Growth Nexus in Jordan: An Application of ARDL Bound Test Analysis in the Presence of Breaks”, Defence and Peace Economics, Volume: 1-19. DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2020.1730113
12. Dizaji, Sajjad Faraji and Mohammad Reza, Farzanegan (2018), “Do sanctions reduce the military spending in Iran?”, MAGKS Joint Discussion Paper Series in Economics, No: 31, p. 1-32, http://hdl.handle.net/10419/200687 (Erişim Tarihi: 21.09.2020).
13. Dunne, J. Paul, Ron P. Smith and Dirk Willenbockel (2005), “Models of Military Expenditure and Growth: A Critical Review”, Defence and Peace Economics, Volume: 16, Issue: 6, p.449-461.
14. Dunne, J. Paul, S. Perlo-Freeman and Aylin Soydan (2004), “Military Expenditure and Debt in South America”, Defence and Peace Economics, Volume:15, Issue:2, p.173-187.
15. Farzanegan, Mohammad Reza (2014), “Military Spending and Economic Growth: The Case of Iran”, Defence and Peace Economics, Volume: 25, Issue: 3, p. 247–269, http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/10242694.2012.723160 (Erişim Tarihi: 21.09.2020).
16. Feridun, Mete (2005), “An Economic Analysis of the Military Expenditure and External Debt in Argentina”, International Economics , Volume: 58, Issue: 4, p. 391-403.
17. Georgantopoulos, Andreas G., and Anastasios D. Tsamis (2011), “The Interrelationship between Military Expenditure and External Debt: Patterns of Causation in Northern Africa Countries”, Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies, Volume: 3, Issue: 4, p. 264-273.
18. Günlük-Senesen, Gülay (2004), “The Role of Defence on External Indebtedness: An Assessment of Turkey”, Defence and Peace Economics, Volume: 15, Issue: 2, p.145– 156.
19. Karagöl, Erdal Tanas (2005), “Defence Expenditures and External Debt in Turkey” Defence and Peace Economics, Volume: 16, Issue: 2, p. 117–125.
20. Karagöl, Erdal Tanas (2005), “The Relationship between External Debt, Defence Expenditures and Gnp Revisited: The Case of Turkey”, Defence and Peace Economics, Volume: 17, Issue: 1, p. 47–57.
21. Keyifli, Nazlı ve Sacit Hadi Akdede (2020), “Politik Kutuplaşma ve Devletin Ekonomik Boyutu”, Sosyoekonomi, Cilt: 28, Sayı: 44, s. 319-335.
22. Khan, Lubna, Imtiaz Arif and Sundus Waqar (2020), “The Impact of Military Expenditure on External Debt: The Case of 35 Arms Importing Countries”, Defence and Peace Economics, https://doi.org/10.1080/10242694.2020.1723239 (Erişim Tarihi: 01.11.2020).
23. Kollias, Christos, George Manolas and Suzanna-Maria Paleologouc (2004), “Military Expenditure and Government Debt in Greece: Some Preliminary Empirical Findings” Defence and Peace Economics, Volume: 15, Issue: 2, p. 189–197.
24. Kónya, László (2006), “Exports and Growth: Granger Causality Analysis on OECD Countries with a Panel Data Approach”, Economic Modelling, Volume: 23, p. 978–992.
25. Looney, Robert E. (1987), “Impact of Military Expenditures on Third World Debt”, Canadian Journal of Development Studies, Volume: 8, Issue: 1, p.7–26.
26. Looney, Robert E., ve P. C. Frederiksen (1986), “Defense Expenditures, External Public Debt and Growth in Developing Countries” Journal of Peace Research, Volume: 23, Issue: 4, p. 329–337.
27. Nikolaidou, Eftychia (2016), “The Role of Military Expenditure and Arms Imports in The Greek Debt Crisis”, The Economics of Peace and Security Journal, Volume: 11, Issue: 1, p. 18-27.
28. Pesaran, M.H. (2004)., General Diagnostic Tests for Cross Section Dependence in Panels. Cambridge Working Papers in Economics, 435, London: BP.
29. Pesaran, M.H. ve Yamagata, T. (2008), “Testing Slope Homogeneity in Large Panels”, Journal of Econometrics, Volume: 142, Issue: 1, p. 50-93.
30. Pesaran, M.H., Ullah, A. ve T. Yamagata (2008), “A Bias‐Adjusted LM Test of Error Cross‐ Section Independence”, The Econometrics Journal, Volume: 11, Issue: 1, p. 105-127.
31. Sahebe, Mohammadian Mansoor and Golkhandan (2015), “The Influence of Military Spending on External Debt in Iran”, Journal of Financial Economics (Financial Economics and Development), Volume:9, Issue: 32, p. 139-161.
32. Sezgin, Selami (2004), “An Empirical Note on External Debt and Defence Expenditures in Turkey”, Defence and Peace Economics, Volume: 15, Issue: 2, p. 199–203.
33. SIPRI (2020a), SIPRI Yearbook 2020 Armaments, Disarmament and International Security.
34. SIPRI (2020b), Trends in International Arms Transfers 2019, SIPRI Fact Sheet.
35. Smyth, Russell and Paresh Kumar Narayan (2009), “A Panel Data Analysis of the Military Expenditure–External Debt Nexus: Evidence from Six Middle Eastern Countries”, Journal of Peace Research, Volume:46, Issue:2, p.235-250.
36. Swamy, P.A.V.B. (1970), “Efficient Inference In A Random Coefficient Regression Model”, Econometrica, Volume: 38, Issue: 2, p. 311-323.
37. Topal, Mehmet Hanefi (2108), “Türkiye’de askeri harcamalar ile ekonomik büyüme arasındaki ilişkinin bir analizi (1960-2016)”, Maliye Dergisi, Ocak-Haziran 2018, Sayı: 174, s. 175-202.