ASYMMETRIC RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN OIL PRICE AND EXCHANGE RATE: THE CASE OF ROMANIA

Year 2018, Volume: 28 Issue: 1, 143 - 154, 31.01.2018

İzzet Taşar

https://doi.org/10.18069/firatsbed.372639

Abstract

The
fragile structure of the global economy in the last decades makes it necessary
for policy makers to have consistent predictions on the future values of the
commodities and assets and also exchange rates. The fact that it is still the
biggest source of energy, oil, has a crucial importance for the real economy
and even financial markets. In this study, the relation of the real oil price
and the real exchange rate in Romania will be investigated for the period of
2004:4 to 2014:10 using monthly data. Results in the tests suggest that Romania
should consider the real oil price and real exchange rate causality due to the
fact that there is a significant causality between the variables.

Keywords

Oil Prices, Exchange Rate, Romania, Asymmetric Causality

Petrol Fiyatları ve Döviz Kuru Arasındaki Nedenselliğin Araştırılması, Romanya Örneği

Abstract

Global
ekonomi sözlüğünde kırılganlık terimi sıkça karşılaşılan bir terim
olagelmiştir. Bu da politika yapıcılar için önemli bir husustur. Enerji üretim için
çok önemli bir girdi konumundadır ve bu girdi hala büyük ölçüde petrolden
karşılanmaktadır. Bu çalışmada petrol fiyatları ve döviz kuru ilişkisi Romanya
için irdelenmiştir. Bu çalışmanın veri aralığı 2004:4 ve 2014:10 tarih
aralığındadır. Araştırmanın sonucu Romanya için petrol fiyatları ve döviz kuru
arasında anlamlı bir ilişiki olduğunu göstermektedir.

Keywords

Petrol Fiyatları, Döviz Kuru, Romanya, Asimetrik Nedensellik

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