The Impact of Economic and Foreign Trade Policy Uncertainties on the Foreign Trade Balance between U.S. and China: An Analysis with Boundary Testing and ARDL

Abstract

This study analyzes the impact of the increase in economic and trade policy uncertainties in the U.S. and China on the U.S. foreign trade balance with China by using the Ng-Perron unit root test, boundary testing, and ARDL methods, with reference to the data for the period 2000:Q1-2021:Q3. The analyses indicated that the increase in uncertainties in U.S. economic policies had a positive effect on the U.S. foreign trade balance in the long run, while the increase in uncertainties in China's economic policies had a negative effect on the U.S. foreign trade balance in the short and long run. It was also found that increased trade policy uncertainties in the U.S. did not have a significant impact on the U.S. foreign trade balance while increased trade policy uncertainties in China was shown to negatively affect the U.S. foreign trade balance with China in the short and long run. All these indications suggest that U.S. trade sanctions against China do not benefit the U.S. The study also found that increases in the real exchange rate had a negative impact on the U.S. foreign trade balance in the short and long run, which justifies U.S. policy regarding the exchange rate pressures against China.

Keywords

• US-China Trade Balance
• Economic Policy Uncertainity
• Trade Policy Uncertainity

Ekonomi ve Dış Ticaret Politikası Belirsizliklerinin ABD-Çin Dış Ticaret Dengesine Etkileri: Sınır Testi ve ARDL ile Bir Analiz

Öz

Bu araştırmada ABD ve Çin’deki ekonomik ve ticaret politikası belirsizliklerindeki artışların, ABD’nin Çin’e karşı olan dış ticaret dengesi üzerindeki etkileri, 2000:Q1-2021:Q3 dönemi verileri kullanılarak Ng-Perron birim kök testi, Sınır Testi ve ARDL yöntemleri ile analiz edilmiştir. Analizler sonucunda; ABD’nin ekonomi politikalarındaki belirsizliklerin artmasının ABD’nin Çin’e olan dış ticaret dengesini uzun dönemde olumlu yönde etkilediği, Çin’in ekonomi politikalarındaki belirsizliklerin artmasının ise ABD’nin Çin’le olan dış ticaret dengesini hem uzun hem de kısa dönemde de olumsuz yönde etkilediği bulgusuna ulaşılmıştır. ABD’deki ticaret politikalarındaki belirsizliklerin artmasının ABD’nin Çin’le olan dış ticaret dengesi üzerinde anlamlı bir etkisinin olmadığı görülürken, Çin’deki ticaret politikalarındaki belirsizliklerin artmasının ise ABD’nin Çin karşısındaki dış ticaret dengesini kısa ve uzun dönemlerde olumsuz yönde etkilediği gösterilmiştir. Tüm bu emareler ABD’nin Çin’e karşı uyguladığı ticari yaptırımların kendisine fayda sağlamadığına işaret etmektedir. Diğer taraftan reel döviz kurundaki artışların, ABD’nin dış ticaret dengesini kısa dönemde de uzun dönemde de olumsuz yönde etkilediği görülmüştür. Bu nokta, ABD’nin Çin’e karşı kur baskısına ilişkin politikalarının haklılığına dayanak teşkil etmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• ABD-Çin Dış Ticaret Dengesi
• Ekonomi ve Ticaret Politikası Belirsizlikleri

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