COVID-19’un Avrupa Futbol Kulüplerinin Hisse Senedi Getirileri Üzerindeki Etkileri: Olay Çalışması Analizi

Abstract

COVID-19 salgını tüm dünyada büyük mali sorunlar yaratmıştır. Futbol endüstrisi de bu büyük küresel krizden olumsuz yönde etkilenmiştir. Salgın yüzünden tüm ligler belirli bir süre ertelenmiştir. Özellikle TV, bilet satış ve reklam gelirlerine bağlı olan futbol kulüpleri önemli ölçüde zarar görmüştür. Bu durumun futbol kulübü hisse senetlerinin getirilerine yansıması kaçınılmazdır. Bu çalışmanın amacı COVID-19 salgınının Avrupa borsalarında işlem gören tüm futbol kulübü hisse senetlerine getirisine etkisini incelemektir. Bu amaç doğrultusunda yöntem olarak olay çalışması seçilmiştir. Olay günü olarak da Dünya Sağlık Örgütü’nün COVID-19’u küresel bir salgın gün ilan ettiği 11 Mart 2020 tarihi belirlenmiştir. Elde edilen sonuçlara göre, kısa dönem penceresinde tüm futbol kulübü hisse senetlerinin pandemi ilan tarihi öncesi beş ile sonrası beş gün arası kümülatif anormal getiri ortalaması (CAAR) negatif gerçekleşmiştir. Bu tarihler arası futbol kulüplerinin CAAR ortalaması -%14,21 ile -%103,13 arası değişmektedir. On dokuz kulübün ortalaması -%46,56’dır. Uzun dönem penceresinden yani olay günü sonrası altıncı gün ile otuz altıncı gün arası CAAR -%5,00 ile %60,78 arasında gerçekleşmiştir. Bu pencerede kulüplerin ortalaması %24,90’dır. Çalışmada ayrıca futbol kulübü hisse senetleri ülke ulusal endeksleri ile kıyaslanmıştır. Ülke futbol kulübü hisse senetleri ortalama getiri kayıpları kısa dönem penceresinde ülke ulusal endeks getirilerine göre daha fazladır. Ancak uzun dönem penceresinde bunun tam tersi durum söz konusudur. Bununla birlikte futbol kulübü hisse senetlerinin getiri oynaklıkları ülke ulusal endekslerine göre daha fazladır. Bu durum da futbol kulübü hisse senetlerini riskli hisse senetleri olduğunu ortaya koymaktadır. Ayrıca, anormal getirilerin varlığı futbol hisse senetleri piyasasının kriz dönemlerinde etkinlikten uzak olduğunu da göstermektedir.

Keywords

• COVID-19 salgını
• Futbol Kulübü Hisse Senetleri
• Avrupa Borsaları
• Olay Çalışması Yöntemi
• Etkin Piyasalar Hipotezi

Effects of COVID-19 on Stock Returns of European Football Clubs: An Event Study Analysis

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic has created major financial problems all over the world. The football industry has also been negatively affected by this global crisis. Due to the epidemic, all leagues have been postponed for a certain period of time. In particular, football clubs, which depend on TV, ticket sales and advertising revenues, have suffered significantly. It is inevitable that this situation will be reflected in the returns of football club stocks. The aim of this study is to examine the effect of the COVID-19 epidemic on the return of all football club stocks traded in European stock markets. For this purpose, event study was chosen as the method. 11 March 2020, when the World Health Organization declared COVID-19 a global epidemic day, was determined as the event day. According to the results, the cumulative abnormal average return (CAAR) of all football club stocks was negative between five days before and five days after the pandemic declaration date. The CAAR of football clubs between these dates varies between -14.21% and -103.13%. In the long-term window, between the sixth day and the thirty-sixth day after the event day, the CAAR was between -5.00% and 60.78%. In the study, football club stocks were also compared with country national indices. The average return losses of country football club stocks are higher than the country national index returns in the short-term window. However, the opposite is true in the long-term window. In addition, the existence of abnormal returns during the crisis also shows that the football stock market is not an efficient market.

Keywords

• COVID-19 Outbreak
• Football Club’s Stocks
• European Stock Exchanges
• Event Study Analysis
• Efficient Market Hypothesis

References

1. Alam, M. M., & Abdurraheem, I. I. (2021). COVID-19 and the financial crisis in the sports sector around the world. Sport in Society, 1-14.
2. Armitage, S. (1995). Event study methods and evidence on their performance. Journal of economic surveys, 9(1), 25-52.
3. Corrado, C. J., & Zivney, T. L. (1992). The specification and power of the sign test in event study hypothesis tests using daily stock returns. Journal of Financial and Quantitative analysis, 27(3), 465-478.
4. Derouiche, K., & Frunza, M. (2020). How did COVID-19 shape the Tweets sentiment impact upon stock prices of sport companies? Available at SSRN 3649726.
5. Doğan, M., Kevser, M., & Sarıgül, S. S. (2021). Analysis of the relationship between notifications of football clubs and stock returns usıng event study method. Sosyal Ekonomik Araştırmalar Dergisi, 21(1), 67-76.
6. Drewes, M., Daumann, F., & Follert, F. (2021). Exploring the sports economic impact of COVID-19 on professional soccer. Soccer & Society, 22(1-2), 125-137.
7. DW. (2020). Coronavirus and sports: What happened in March 2020?. https://www.dw.com/en/coronavirus-and-sports-what-happened-in-march-2020/a-53229343, Erişim Tarihi: 06.01.2022.
8. Evans, S. (2021). UEFA to lift 30% COVID limit on crowds. https://www.reuters.com/article/soccer-uefa-idINKBN2BM1V0, Erişim Tarihi: 07.01.202.

9. Fama, E., (1965), The behaviour of stock market prices. Journal of Business, 38, 34 – 104.
10. Fama, E., (1970). Efficient capital markets: a review of theory and empirical work. Journal of Finance, 25, 383 – 417.
11. Fama, E. F., & French, K. R. (1996). The CAPM is wanted, dead or alive. The Journal of Finance, 51(5), 1947-1958.
12. FIFA. (2019). Global transfer market report 2019: Men professional football. https://digitalhub.fifa.com/m/248987d86f2b9955/original/x2wrqjstwjoailnncnod-pdf.pdf Erişim Tarihi: 11.01.2022.
13. Fühner, J., Schmidt, S. L., & Schreyer, D. (2021). Are diversified football clubs better prepared for a crisis? First empirical evidence from the stock market. European Sport Management Quarterly, 21(3), 350-373.
14. Garcia-del-Barrio, P., & Szymanski, S. (2009). Goal! Profit maximization versus win maximization in soccer. Review of Industrial Organization, 34(1), 45-68.
15. Hammerschmidt, J., Durst, S., Kraus, S., & Puumalainen, K. (2021). Professional football clubs and empirical evidence from the COVID-19 crisis: Time for sport entrepreneurship?. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 165, 120572.
16. International Monetary Fund (IMF). (2020a). World Economic Outlook: The Great Lockdown. Washington, DC, April.
17. International Monetary Fund (IMF). (2020b). World Economic Outlook: A Long and Difficult Ascent. Washington, DC, October.
18. Kendall, M. G., & Hill, A. B. (1953). The analysis of economic time-series-part i: Prices. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A (General), 116(1), 11-34.
19. KPMG. (2020). Season one after the Covid outbreak. https://www.footballbenchmark.com/library/season_one_after_the_covid_outbreak. Erişim Tarihi: 07.01.2022.
20. Limba, F. B., Rijoly, J. C. D., & Tarangi, M. I. (2020). Black swan global market: Analysis of the effect of the COVID-19 death rate on the volatility of European football club stock prices (Case Study of Juventus FC, Manchester United, Ajax Amsterdam and Borussia Dortmund). JMBI UNSRAT (Jurnal Ilmiah Manajemen Bisnis dan Inovasi Universitas Sam Ratulangi)., 7(3). Matkovskyy, R., & Jalan, A. (2022). Football vs cryptos: which scores the goal during COVID-19?. Available at SSRN 4017746.
21. Pacicco, F., Vena, L., & Venegoni, A. (2019). Market reactions to ECB policy innovations: A cross-country analysis. Journal of international money and finance, 91, 126-137.
22. Quansah, T., Frick, B., Lang, M., & Maguire, K. (2021). The Importance of Club Revenues for Player Salaries and Transfer Expenses—How Does the Coronavirus Outbreak (COVID-19) Impact the English Premier League?. Sustainability, 13(9), 5154.
23. Ruihley, B. J., & Li, B. (2020). Sport and the coronavirus crisis special issue: an introduction. International Journal of Sport Communication, 13(3), 289-293. Szymanski, S., & Weimar, D. (2019). Insolvencies in professional football: A German Sonderweg. International Journal of Sport Finance, 14(1), 54-68.
24. Tovar, J. (2021). Soccer, World War II and coronavirus: A comparative analysis of how the sport shut down. Soccer & Society, 22(1-2), 66-74.
25. UEFA. (2020). Chronology: UEFA response to COVID-19 pandemic. https://www.uefa.com/insideuefa/about-uefa/news/025c-0f8e776686e3-9f77b5a55c0e-1000--chronology-uefa-response-to-covid-19-pandemic/ Erişim Tarihi: 12.01.2022.
26. World Health Organization (WHO). (2021). WHO Coronavirus (COVID-19) Dashboard, https://covid19.who.int/, Erişim Tarihi: 12.12.2021.