Jeopolitik Risklerin ve Savunma Harcamalarının İktisadi Büyümeyle İlişkisi: MIST Ülkeleri Örneği

Year 2023, , 1929 - 1947, 18.09.2023

Onur Demirci , Fatih Volkan Ayyıldız

https://doi.org/10.25295/fsecon.1277050

Abstract

Savunma harcamalarının GSYH içindeki payının yüksek oluşu bazı ekonomilerde büyüme üzerinde olumsuz bir etki yaratmaktadır. Arz yönlü iktisatçılar bu etkinin, kaynakların daha verimli ve üretime dönük alanlarda değerlendirilmesiyle giderilebileceğini savunmaktadır. Keynesyen görüş ise askeri harcamaların çarpan mekanizması yoluyla iktisadi büyümeyi pozitif etkileyebileceğini öne sürmektedir. Bu argüman, artan savunma harcamalarının toplam harcamaları artıracağını, toplam harcamaların da toplam talebi artıracağını ve böylece iktisadi büyümenin ivme kazanacağı anlayışına dayanmaktadır. Savunma harcamaları sürekli yüksek seyreden ülkelerde bu duruma sebebiyet veren faktörler arasında savaş, deprem ve göçmen sorunları gibi jeopolitik riskler de gösterilebilir. Bu riskleri yüksek olan ülkelerin savunma harcamalarının da GSYH içinde görece önemli bir paya sahip olduğu gözlenebilmektedir. Ekonomi yazınında savunma harcamaları ve ekonomik büyüme ilişkisi üzerine geniş bir literatür mevcut iken jeopolitik risklerin bu denkleme dahil olduğu çalışmalar az sayıdadır. Bu çalışma jeopolitik riskler ve savunma harcamalarının iktisadi büyüme ile nedensellik bağının varlığını MIST ülkeleri (Meksika, Endonezya, Güney Kore ve Türkiye) kapsamında tahmin etmeyi amaçlamaktadır. Çalışma kapsamında jeopolitik risklerin ölçümü için GPR endeksi (Caldara & Lacoviello, 2022) kullanılarak Dumitrescu & Hurlin (2012) panel nedensellik testine başvurulmuştur. Sonuçlar büyümeden her iki değişkene doğru geri beslemeli nedenselliğe dair kanıtlar sunarken jeopolitik riskten savunma harcamalarına doğru bir nedenselliğe de işaret etmektedir.

Keywords

Jeopolitik Risk, Askeri Keynesyen, Savunma Harcamaları, İktisadi Büyüme

The Relationship of Geopolitical Risks and Defense Expenditures with Economic Growth: The Example of MIST Countries

Abstract

The high share of defense expenditures in GDP has a negative effect on growth in some economies. Supply-side economists argue that this effect should be eliminated by utilizing resources in more efficient and production-oriented areas. The Keynesian view, on the other hand, argues that military spending can positively affect economic growth through the multiplier mechanism. This argument is based on the understanding that increasing defense expenditures will increase total expenditures, increase aggregate demand in total expenditures, and thus economic growth will gain momentum. Among the factors that cause this situation in countries with constantly high defense expenditures, geopolitical risks like war, earthquakes and immigration problems can be shown as examples for those expenditures. It can be observed that the defense expenditures of these countries with such risks have a relatively significant and high share in their respective GDPs. While there is extensive literature on the relationship between defense expenditures and economic growth in the economic literature, there are few studies that include geopolitical risks in this equation. This study aims to predict the existence of causality between geopolitical risks and defense expenditures and economic growth within the context of MIST countries (Mexico, Indonesia, South Korea and Turkey). Within the scope of the study, Dumitrescu & Hurlin’s (2012) panel causality test was applied by using the GPR index (Caldara & Lacoviello, 2022) for the measurement of geopolitical risks. The results obtained provide evidence of a causal relationship with feedback from economic growth to both variables, while also pointing to causality from geopolitical risk to defense spending.

Keywords

Geopolitical Risk, Military Keynesianism, Defense Expenditures, Economic Growth

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