Belirsizliğin Uluslararası Ticaret Üzerindeki Asimetrik Etkileri: NARDL Modeline Dayalı Ampirik Bir İnceleme

Abstract

Belirsizlik, yatırımların ertelenmesine, tasarrufların artmasına, tüketimin azalmasına ve sonuç olarak da uluslararası ticaret hacmini azalmasına ve ekonomik yavaşlamaya yol açmaktadır. Küresel belirsizlik ve uluslararası ticaret arasında asimetrik bir ilişki olduğu kabul edilmektedir. Başka bir ifadeyle, belirsizliklerin artmasının küresel ticaret hacmini azaltması, belirsizliklerin azalmasının ise küresel ticaret hacmini artırması beklenmektedir. Bu durum, pozitif ve negatif şoklara karşı küresel ticaret hacminde oluşacak etkilerin ayrıştırılması gereğini ortaya koyması bakımından önem arz etmektedir. Bu kapsamda çalışmada, 1990:Q1-2022:Q2 döneminde küresel belirsizlik ve uluslararası ticaret arasındaki ilişkinin sırasıyla Dünya Belirsizlik Endeksi (World Uncertanity Index-WUI) ve Baltık Kuru Yük Endeksi (Baltic Dry Index-BDI) serileri üzerinden araştırılması amaçlanmaktadır. Çalışmada söz konusu seriler arasındaki uzun ve kısa dönemli asimetrik ilişkiler, doğrusal olmayan gecikmesi dağılmış otoregresif model (Non-Linear Autoregressive Distributed Lag-NARDL) yaklaşımıyla incelenmektedir. Çalışmada ulaşılan sonuçlar, inceleme döneminde analize konu olan iki değişken arasında asimetrik bir ilişkinin var olduğunu ve Dünya Belirsizlik Endeksi’nde meydana gelen azalışların Baltık Kuru Yük Endeksi’ni artırıcı etki yarattığını göstermektedir.

Keywords

• Dünya Belirsizlik Endeksi
• Uluslararası Ticaret
• NARDL.

Asymmetric Effects of Uncertanity on International Trade: An Empirical Investigation Based on The NARDL Model

Abstract

Uncertainty leads to postponement of investments, increased savings, reduced consumption and, consequently, reduced international trade volume and economic slowdown. It is accepted that there is an asymmetric relationship between global uncertainty and international trade. In other words, an increase in uncertainty is expected to decrease the volume of global trade, while a decrease in uncertainty is expected to increase the volume of global trade. This situation is important in terms of the need to decompose the effects of positive and negative shocks on the volume of global trade. In this context, this study aims to investigate the relationship between global uncertainty and international trade over the period 1990:Q1-2022:Q2 using the World Uncertanity Index (WUI) and Baltic Dry Index (BDI) series, respectively. In the study, the long and short-run asymmetric relationships between these series are analyzed with the Non-Linear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) approach. The results of the study show that there is an asymmetric relationship between the two variables analyzed in the analysis period and that decreases in the World Uncertainty Index have an increasing effect on the Baltic Dry Index.

Keywords

• World Uncertanity Index
• International Trade
• NARDL

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