Türkiye’de Uygulanan Orta Vadeli Programlar: Sorunlar ve Çözüm Önerileri

Year 2023, , 453 - 470, 29.10.2023

Haluk Yergin , Nida Günsan , Kaan Yiğenoğlu

https://doi.org/10.25295/fsecon.1294517

Abstract

Türkiye, stratejik amaçlar temelinde kamu politikalarını şekillendirmek ve kaynak tahsisini bu çerçevede yönlendirmek için, ilk Orta Vadeli Programını (OVP) 2006-2008 dönemini (ilk OVP'nin uygulama yılı aynı zamanda Avrupa Birliği'ne katılım müzakerelerinin başlangıç yılıdır) kapsayacak şekilde hazırlamıştır. İlk OVP dahil günümüze kadar toplam 18 tane OVP ilan edilmiştir ve son OVP 2023-2025 dönemini kapsamaktadır. OVP'ler bütçe politikası açısından bir rehber olduğu gibi aynı zamanda kamu maliyesi açısından büyük öneme sahiptir. Ülkemizde uygulanmaya başlandığı dönemlerde OVP kapsamında genel olarak büyüme ve istihdam, kamu maliyesi, ödemeler dengesi ve fiyat istikrarı gibi hususlar değerlendirilmiştir. Dünya ekonomisindeki gelişmelere ve önceliklere bağlı olarak son yıllarda OVP'lerin içeriğinde değişikliklere gidilmiştir. Bu kapsamda 2023-2025 dönemini kapsayan OVP'de "Yeşil Dönüşüm" ve "Finansal İstikrar" başlıklarına da yer verilmiştir. OVP'lerde ortaya konulan hedeflerin ve gerçekleşen rakamların bütçe performansının doğru şekilde değerlendirilmesi ve kamu maliyesindeki istikrarın devamlılığı açısından takip edilmesi gerekmektedir. Bu çalışmada, OVP'lerde belirlenen hedeflere ne ölçüde ulaşıldığı ve ulaşılmadıysa bunun sebeplerinin neler olduğu analiz edilmektedir. Çalışmada 2006 yılından günümüze kadar ilan edilen OVP'ler incelendiği için Türkiye ekonomisinin performansı hakkında önemli çıkarımların yapılacağı ve ayrıca sorunların tespitinde ve çözümünde daha doğru değerlendirmelerin yapılacağı düşünülmektedir.

Keywords

Orta Vadeli Program, Bütçeleme, Kamu Maliyesi

Medium Term Programmes Implemented in Türkiye: Problems and Solution Suggestions

Abstract

Türkiye prepared its first Medium Term Programme (MTP) covering the period 2006-2008 (the year of implementation of the first MTP was also the year of the start of the accession negotiations to the European Union) in order to shape public policies on the basis of strategic objectives and direct resource allocation accordingly. Including the first MTP, a total of 18 MTPs have been announced so far, and the last MTP covers the period 2023-2025. MTPs are not only a guide for budget policy but also of great importance for public finance. In the periods when the MTP was implemented in Türkiye, issues such as growth and employment, public finance, balance of payments, and price stability were generally evaluated within the scope of the MTP. In recent years, changes have been made in the content of MTPs in line with the developments and priorities in the world economy. In this context, "Green Transformation" and "Financial Stability" were also included in the MTP covering the 2023-2025 period. The targets set in the MTPs and the actual figures should be monitored in order to assess the budget performance correctly and to maintain the stability of public finances. This study analyses to what extent the targets set in the MTPs have been achieved and, if not, what the reasons for this failure are. This study analyses to what extent the targets set in the MTPs have been achieved and, if not, what the reasons for this failure are. Since the MTPs announced in 2006 are analyzed in this study, it is thought that important inferences will be made about the performance of the Turkish economy and more accurate evaluations will be made in identifying and solving problems.

Keywords

Medium Term Programme, Budgeting, Public Finance

References

• Allen, R. & Tommasi, D. (Eds.). (2001). Managing Public Expenditure: A Reference Book for Transition Countries. France: OECD Publishing.
• Aras, O. N., Erdoğan, E. & Kök, R. (2015). Türkiye’de Uygulanan Orta Vadeli Programın Ödemeler Dengesi Tahminleri Doğrultusunda Performansının Analizi. Finans Politik & Ekonomik Yorumlar, 51(595), 7-23.
• Bulut, E. & Köktaş, C. (2014). Yeni Yılda, Orta Vadeli Program Işığında Rakamlarla Türkiye Ekonomisi. Gümrük & Ticaret Dergisi, 2, 131-138.
• Demirbaş, T. (2020). The Experience of a Medium-Term Expenditure Framework in Türkiye. H. Kıral & T. Akdemir (Ed.), Public Financial Management Reforms in Türkiye: Progress and Challenges (Volume 1). USA: Springer.
• Gültepe, M. (2022). The Impact of Future Technologies on The Productivity of Turkish Exporters. https://www.wipo.int/edocs/pubdocs/en/wipo-pub-2000-2022-expert-contribution8-en-the-impact-of-future-technologies-on-the-productivity-of-turkish-exporters-global-innovation-index-2022-15th-edition.pdf
• Holmes, M. & Evans, A. (2003). A Review of Experience in Implementing Medium Term Expenditure Frameworks in A PRSP Context: A Synthesis of Eight Country Studies. London: Overseas Development Institute.
• IMF. (2021). IMF Executive Board Concludes 2021 Article IV Consultation with Turkey. https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2021/06/11/pr21169-turkey-imf-executive-board-concludes-2021-article-iv-consultation
• Kara, F. (2014). Parlamento ve Çok Yıllı Bütçeleme: Türkiye Örneği. Yasama Dergisi, (27), 12-152. Medium-Term Programme. (2006-2008). https://www.sbb.gov.tr/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/Medium_Term_Programme-2006-2008.pdf.
• OECD. (2022). OECD Reviews of Evaluation and Assessment in Education: Student Assessment in Turkey. https://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/sites/71ee93b4-en/index.html?itemId=/content/component/71ee93b4-en
• Portulans Institute. (2022). The Turkish Exporters Assembly Tells Us About Turkey’s Digital Transformation, and How to Stay Future-Ready. https://portulansinstitute.org/the-turkish-exporters-assembly-tells-us-about-turkeys-digital-transformation-and-how-to-stay-future-ready/
• Premchand, A. (1983). Government Budgeting and Expenditure Controls-Theory and Practice. Washington: International Monetary Fund.
• Presidency of the Republic of Türkiye Investment Office. (2021). Türkiye’s Foreign Direct Investment Strategy (2021-2023). https://www.invest.gov.tr/en/pages/turkey-fdi-strategy.aspx
• Pwc. (2022). FX and Inflation: Turkey Expected to Be Highly Inflationary. https://viewpoint.pwc.com/dt/us/en/pwc/in_briefs/assets/ib202203.pdf
• SBB. (2022). https://www.sbb.gov.tr/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/Orta-Vadeli-Program-2023-2025.pdf (Access date: December 12, 2022).
• Schick, A. (1986). Macro-Budgetary Adaptations to Fiscal Stress in Industrialized Democracies. Public Administration Review, 46(2), 124-134. https://doi.org/10.2307/976164
• Schick, A. (1990). 3 Why the Deficit Persists as a Budget Problem: Role of Political Institutions. Government Financial Management. International Monetary Fund. https://www.elibrary.imf.org/downloadpdf/book/9781557751492/ch004.pdf
• Shinde, R. & Kaynak, D. (2016). Analysis of the Turkish Education System: A System Dynamics Approach on Dropouts and Deficiencies in Job Market. 34th International Conference of the System Dynamics Society (17-21). https://proceedings.systemdynamics.org/2016/proceed/papers/P1255.pdf
• Türkiye Cumhuriyeti Cumhurbaşkanlığı Strateji ve Bütçe Başkanlığı. https://www.sbb.gov.tr/temel-ekonomik-gostergeler/
• Undersecretariat of State Planning Organization. (2005). Medium Term Programme (2006-2008). https://ms.hmb.gov.tr/uploads/2019/10/Medium-Term-Program-2006-2008.pdf
• UNDP. (2022). “Digital Way” Builds Competitiveness of SMEs. https://www.undp.org/turkiye/press-releases/digital-way-builds-competitiveness-smes
• World Bank. (2003). Türkiye Country Economic Memorandum, Towards Macroeconomic Stability and Sustained Growth (In Three Volumes) Volume I: Summary Report, Report No: 26301-TU. World Bank. (2022). https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/turkey/overview