Türkiye Stock Market in the Shadow of COVID-19 Pandemic: A QARDL Approach

Abstract

This study examines the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on the Türkiye stock market between March 14, 2020, and April 29, 2022, using the Quantile Autoregressive Distributed Lag (QARDL) model. The research investigates the relationship between the BIST100 index and selected economic indicators across quantiles ranging from 0.05 to 0.95. These indicators include daily new COVID-19 cases, the dollar exchange rate (FX), Brent crude oil prices (OIL), and credit default swap (CDS) rates. Findings indicate that an increase in COVID-19 cases has a negative impact on the stock market across various quantiles. While the dollar exchange rate generally shows a positive relationship with the BIST100 index, Brent crude oil prices, and CDS rates exhibit a negative impact. These results highlight the complex effects of both internal and external factors on the Türkiye stock market, providing significant insights for policymakers and future research.

Keywords

• QARDL
• COVID-19 Pandemic
• Credit Default Swaps
• Turkish Stock Market
• Crude oil
• Exchange Rate

COVID-19 Pandemisinin Gölgesinde Türk Borsası: Bir QARDL Yaklaşımı

Abstract

Bu çalışma, 14 Mart 2020 ile 29 Nisan 2022 tarihleri arasında COVID-19 pandemisinin Türk borsası üzerindeki etkilerini, Kantil Otoregresif Dağıtılmış Gecikme (QARDL) modelini kullanarak incelemektedir. Araştırma, BIST100 endeksi ve seçilen ekonomik göstergeler arasındaki ilişkiyi 0,05'ten 0,95'e kadar değişen kantillerde inceler. Bu göstergeler COVID-19 günlük yeni vakaları, dolar kuru (FX), Brent petrol fiyatları (OIL) ve kredi temerrüt takası oranları (CDS)’dır. Bulgular, COVID-19 vakalarının artışının borsa üzerinde farklı kantillerde negatif bir etkisi olduğunu göstermektedir. Dolar kuru, BIST100 endeksi ile pozitif bir ilişki sergilerken, ham petrol fiyatları ve CDS oranları negatif bir etki göstermektedir. Bu sonuçlar hem içsel hem de dışsal etkenlerin Türk borsası üzerindeki etkilerini ve bu etkilerin karmaşıklığını ortaya koymakta, politika yapıcıları ve gelecekteki araştırmalar için önemli çıkarımlar sunmaktadır.

Keywords

• COVID-19 Pandemisi
• Kredi Temerrüt Riski Takas Oranları
• BIST-100
• Brent Petrol
• Dolar Kuru
• QARDL

References

1. Açıkgöz, Ö. & Günay, A. (2021). Short-Term Impact of The Covid-19 Pandemic on The Global and Türkiye Economy. Türkiye Journal of Medical Sciences, 51(Special Issue 1), 3182-3193. https://doi.org/10.3906/sag-2106-271
2. Akçağlayan, A. & Tuzcu, S. E. (2023). The Asymmetric Impacts of Oil Prices and Selected Macroeconomic Variables on Stock Markets: The Case of Turkey. Sosyoekonomi, 31(55), 125-149. https://doi.org/10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2023.01.07
3. Alan, B. & Aybars, A. (2022, January 1). The Effect of COVID-19 on the Insurance Sector of Emerging Market Countries. https://scite.ai/reports/10.29228/jore.16
4. Ali, M., Alam, N. & Rizvi, S. A. R. (2020). Coronavirus (COVID-19)-An Epidemic or Pandemic for Financial Markets. Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, 27, 100341. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbef.2020.100341.
5. Atıcı Ustalar, S. & Sanlisoy, S. (2021). Covid-19 Küresel Salgınının Hisse Senedi Piyasası Oynaklığı Üzerindeki Etkisi: Bist100 Uygulaması. Ömer Halisdemir Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 14(4), 1143-1158.
6. Atilgan, C. & Afşar, K. E. (2022). Covid-19 Pandemisinin BİST 100 Şirketleri Arasındaki Sektörel Bağlantılara Etkisi: Minimum Kapsayan Ağaç Analizi. Bilgi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 24(1), 53-82. https://doi.org/10.54838/bilgisosyal.1035807
7. Atri, H., Kouki, S. & Gallali, M. I. (2021). The Impact of COVID-19 News, Panic and Media Coverage on The Oil and Gold Prices: An ARDL Approach. Resources Policy, January. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resourpol.2021.102061.
8. Basuony, M. A. K., Bouaddi, M., Ali, H. & EmadEldeen, R. (2021). The Effect of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Global Stock Markets: Return, Volatility, and Bad State Probability Dynamics. Journal of Public Affairs, e2761. https://doi.org/10.1002/pa.2761

9. Bellégo, C., Benatia, D. & Pape, L.-D. (2022). Dealing with Logs and Zeros in Regression Models. CREST - Série des Documents de Travail, 2019-13. https://ssrn.com/abstract=3444996
10. Borsa Istanbul (BIST). (2022). Borsa Istanbul Historic and Reference Data Platform. https://datastore.borsaistanbul.com/
11. Bouri, E., Cepni, O., Gabauer, D. & Gupta, R. (2021). Return Connectedness Across Asset Classes Around The COVID-19 Outbreak. International Review of Financial Analysis, 73, Article 101646. https://doi.org/10.1016/ j.irfa.2020.101646
12. Cehreli, C., Dursun, I. & Barlas, Y. (2017). Speculative Dynamics of Exchange Rates in Turkey: A System Dynamics Approach. YILDIZ Social Science Review, 103-120. https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/download/article-file/407597
13. Çelik, S. & Yılmaz, M. (2021). The Impact of COVID-19 on Stock Returns: Evidence from Turkey. Journal of Economics and Administrative Sciences, 25(49), 1-16.
14. Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye (CBRT). (2022). Exchange Rates (Daily). Electronic Data Delivery System. https://evds2.tcmb.gov.tr/
15. Cho, J. S., Kim, T. H. & Shin, Y. (2015). Quantile Cointegration in The Autoregressive Distributed-Lag Modeling Framework. Journal of Econometrics, 188(1), 281-300. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2015.05.003.
16. Civan, Z., Şimşek, G. G. & Çinar, U K. (2022). What Are the Macroeconomic Drivers of the Asset Returns of Türkiye Banks?. https://scite.ai/reports/10.3846/tede.2022.17750
17. Cohn, J. B., Liu, Z. & Wardlaw, M. (2022). Count (and Count-Like) Data in Finance. Journal of Financial Economics. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3800339
18. Coşkun, Y., Seven, Ü., Ertuğrul, H. M. & Ulussever, T. (2017). Capital Market and Economic Growth Nexus: Evidence from Turkey. Central Bank Review, 17(1), 19-29. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cbrev.2017.02.003.
19. Cutcu, I. & Dineri, E. (2021). The Effect of The Pandemic on Exchange Rates: An Application on Turkey. International Journal of Economics, Politics, Humanities & Social Science, 4, 182-193.
20. Demirgüç-Kunt, A., Pedraza, A. & Ruiz-Ortega, C. (2021). Banking Sector Performance During The COVID-19 Crisis. Journal of Banking and Finance, 133(August). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2021.106305
21. Dineri, E. & Çütçü, İ. (2020). The COVID-19 Process and The Exchange Rate Relation: An Application in Turkey. Research Square, 1-18. http://dx.doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-49026/v1
22. Durdu, C. B., Martin, A. & Zer, I. (2020). The Role of US Monetary Policy in Banking Crises Across the World. IMF Economic Review, 68(1), 66-107. https://doi.org/10.1057/s41308-020-00109-1
23. Effiom, L. & Uche, E. (2021). Oil Price, Exchange Rate and Stock Price in Nigeria: Fresh Insights Based on Quantile ARDL Model. Economics and Policy of Energy and the Environment, 2021(1), 59-79.
24. Eichengreen, B. & Hausmann, R. (1999). Exchange Rates and Financial Fragility. NBER Working Paper Series. http://www.nber.org/papers/w7418
25. Erdaş, M. (2022). The Impact of Financial Drivers on Credit Default Swap (CDS) in Turkey: The Cointegration with Structural Breaks and FMOLS Approach. Istanbul Business Research, 51(1), 25-46. https://doi.org/10.26650/ibr.2021.51.895637.
26. Erden, B. & Aslan, Ö. F. (2022). The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic Outbreak on The Sustainable Development of The Türkiye Banking Sector. Frontiers in Environmental Science, 10(September), 1-12. https://doi.org/10.3389/fenvs.2022.989070
27. Eren, M. & Basar, S. (2016). Effects of Credit Default Swaps (CDS) on BIST-100 Index. Ecoforum Journal, 5(3). http://www.ecoforumjournal.ro/index.php/eco/article/view/527
28. Fernandes, N. (2020). Economic Effects of Coronavirus Outbreak (COVID-19) on the World Economy. IESE Business School Spain. SSRN Electronic Journal, 1-29. ISSN 1556-5068, Elsevier BV.
29. Gao, H. & Chen, G. T. (2022, October 30). Crude Oil Price Shocks and Stock Market Volatility: Evidence from China. https://scite.ai/reports/10.5539/res.v14n4p39
30. Gazel, S.. (2016). Cointegration and Causality Between Bist 100 Index and Gold Price. International Journal of Business and Management, 5, 337-344.
31. Godil, D. I., Sharif, A., Agha, H. & Jermsittiparsert, K. (2020). The Dynamic Non-Linear Influence of ICT, Financial Development, and Institutional Quality on CO2 Emission in Pakistan: New Insights from QARDL Approach. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 27(19), 24190-24200. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-020-08619-1
32. Gokmenoglu, K., Azin, V. & Taspinar, N. (2015). The Relationship Between Industrial Production, GDP, Inflation and Oil Price: The Case of Turkey. Procedia Economics and Finance, 25, 497-503. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/S2212-5671(15)00762-5
33. Habib, M. M., Mileva, E. & Stracca, L. (2017). The Real Exchange Rate and Economic Growth: Revisiting the Case Using External Instruments. Journal of International Money and Finance, 73, 386-398. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jimonfin.2017.02.014
34. Hanson, J. & Roache, S. K. (2020, April 17). The Impact of COVID-19 on Emerging Markets Economies’ Financial Conditions. https://www.risk.net/journal-of-risk/7956416/the-relationship-between-crude-oil-futures-and-exchange-rates-in-the-context-of-the-covid-19-shock-a-tale-of-two-markets
35. Hao, X., Sun, Q. & Xie, F. (2022). The COVID-19 Pandemic, Consumption and Sovereign Credit Risk: Cross-Country Evidence. Economic Modelling, 109(February). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2022.105794.
36. Harvey, C. R. (2020). The Economic and Financial Implications of the COVID-19 Pandemic. The Mayo Center for Asset Management at the University of Virginia Darden School of Business and the Financial Management Association International Virtual Seminars Series, April. https://www.darden.virginia.edu/mayo-center/events/virtualspeaker-series
37. Hashmi, S. M. & Chang, B. H. (2023). Asymmetric Effect of Macroeconomic Variables on the Emerging Stock Indices: A Quantile ARDL Approach. International Journal of Finance & Economics, 28(1), 1006-1024.
38. Hashmi, S. M., Chang, B. H., Huang, L. & Uche, E. (2022). Revisiting the Relationship Between Oil Prices, Exchange Rate, and Stock Prices: An Application of Quantile ARDL Model. Resources Policy, 75, 102543. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resourpol.2021.102543
39. Ibn-Mohammed, T., Mustapha, K. B., Godsell, J., Adamu, Z., Babatunde, K. A., Akintade, D. D., Acquaye, A., Fujii, H., Ndiaye, M. M., Yamoah, F. A. & Koh, S. C. L. (2021). A Critical Review of the Impacts of COVID-19 on the Global Economy and Ecosystems and Opportunities for Circular Economy Strategies. Resources, Conservation and Recycling, 164(May 2020), 105169. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resconrec.2020.105169
40. IMF. (2021). Emerging Markets: Prospects and Challenges. World Economic Outlook, April 2021: Managing Divergent Recoveries (Chapter 2). https://www.oecd.org/coronavirus/policy-responses/covid-19-and-global-capital-flows-2dc69002/
41. Ismayilov, J. & Gürler, Ö. K. (2022). The Effect of Credit Default Swaps, Oil Prices and Exchange Rates on Turkey’s Energy Sector: The Example of Bist Electricity Index. https://scite.ai/reports/10.11611/yead.1168027
42. Jabeen, S., Farhan, M., Zaka, M. A., Fiaz, M. & Farasat, M. (2021). COVID and World Stock Markets: A Comprehensive Discussion. Frontiers in Psychology, 12, 7633461
43. Jiang, C., Zhang, Y., Razi, U. & Kamran, H. W. (2021). The Asymmetric Effect of COVID-19 Outbreak, Commodities Prices and Policy Uncertainty on Financial Development in China: Evidence from QARDL Approach. Economic Research-Ekonomska Istrazivanja, 35(1), 2003-2022. https://doi.org/10.1080/1331677X.2021.1930092
44. John, C. & Draper, N. R. (1980). An Alternative Family of Transformations. Applied Statistics, 29(2), 190-197. https://doi.org/10.2307/2986305
45. Kandil, M., Berument, H. & Dincer, N. N. (2007). The Effects of Exchange Rate Fluctuations on Economic Activity in Turkey. Journal of Asian Economics, 18(3), 466-489. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.asieco.2006.12.015.
46. Karahan, Ö. (2020). Influence of Exchange Rate on the Economic Growth in the Türkiye Economy. Financial Assets and Investing, 11(1), 21-34. https://doi.org/10.5817/fai2020-1-2
47. Kartal, M. T. (2020). The Behavior of Sovereign Credit Default Swaps (CDS) Spread: Evidence from Turkey with the Effect of Covid-19 Pandemic. Quantitative Finance and Economics, 4(3), 489-502. https://doi.org/10.3934/qfe.2020022
48. Kartal, M. T., Depren, Ö. & Kılıç Depren, S. (2021). Do Monetary Policy Measures Affect Foreign Exchange Rates During The COVID-19 Pandemic? Evidence from Turkey. Journal of BRSA Banking and Financial Markets, 175-202. https://doi.org/10.46520/bddkdergisi.987416
49. Korkmaz, T. & Yılmaz, M. (2020). The Effects of COVID-19 on Stock Market Volatility: Evidence from Turkey. Journal of Asian Finance Economics and Business, 7(11), 893-912.
50. Köse, N. & Ünal, E. (2021). The Effects of The Oil Price and Oil Price Volatility on Inflation in Turkey. Energy, 226, 120392. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2021.120392
51. Levine, R. & Zervos, S. (1998). Stock Markets, Banks, and Economic Growth. The American Economic Review, 88(3), 537-558. http://www.jstor.org/stable/116848
52. Li, Chuanjian, Su, Z. W., Yaqoob, T. & Sajid, Y. (2021). COVID-19 and Currency Market: A Comparative Analysis of Exchange Rate Movement in China and USA During Pandemic. Economic Research-Ekonomska Istrazivanja, 35(1), 2477-2492. https://doi.org/10.1080/1331677X.2021.1959368
53. Liu, Y., Qiu, B. & Wang, T. (2021). Debt Rollover Risk, Credit Default Swap Spread and Stock Returns: Evidence from the COVID-19 Crisis. Journal of Financial Stability, 53, 100855. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfs.2021.100855
54. MaCurdy, T. E. & Pencavel, J. H. (1986). Testing between Competing Models of Wage and Employment Determination in Unionized Markets. Journal of Political Economy, 94(3), S3–S39. http://www.jstor.org/stable/1837175
55. Masoud, N. M. H. (2013). The Impact of Stock Market Performance Upon Economic Growth. International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, 3(4), 788-798. https://doi.org/10.5958/2249-7323.2018.00034.2
56. Mazur, M., Dang, M. & Vega, M. (2021). COVID-19 and the March 2020 Stock Market Crash. Evidence from S&P1500. Finance Research Letters, 38, 1-8.
57. Nhuyen, B. H. (2022). Three Essays on The Effects of Credit Default Swaps. Victoria University of Wellington.
58. Nwosa, P. I. (2021). Oil Price, Exchange Rate and Stock Market Performance During the COVID-19 Pandemic: Implications for TNCs and FDI Inflow in Nigeria. Transnational Corporations Review, 13(1), 125-137. https://doi.org/10.1080/19186444.2020.1855957
59. OECD. (2020). The Impact of Coronavirus (COVID-19) and the Global Oil Price Shock on the Fiscal Position of Oil-Exporting Developing Countries. https://www.oecd.org/coronavirus/policy-responses/the-impact-of-coronavirus-covid-19-and-the-global-oil-price-shock-on-the-fiscal-position-of-oil-exporting-developing-countries-8bafbd95/
60. Oksuz, E., Malhan, S., Gonen, M. S., Kutlubay, Z., Keskindemirci, Y. & Tabak, F. (2021). COVID-19 Healthcare Cost and Length of Hospital Stay in Turkey: Retrospective Analysis from The First Peak of The Pandemic. Health Economics Review, 11(1), 39. https://doi.org/10.1186/s13561-021-00338-8
61. Ottone, M., Bartolini, L., Bonvicini, L. & Rossi, P. (2023). The Effect of Diabetes on COVID-19 Incidence and Mortality: Differences between Highly-Developed-Country and High-Migratory-Pressure-Country Populations. https://scite.ai/reports/10.3389/fpubh.2023.969143
62. Öztürk, Ö., Şişman, M. Y., Uslu, H. & Çıtak, F. (2020). Effect of COVID-19 Outbreak on Türkiye Stock Market: A Sectoral-Level Analysis. Hitit University Journal of Social Sciences Institute, 13(1), 56-68.
63. Pak, A., Adegboye, O. A., Adekunle, A. I., Rahman, K. M., McBryde, E. S. & Eisen, D. P. (2020). Economic Consequences of the COVID-19 Outbreak: The Need for Epidemic Preparedness. Frontiers in Public Health, 8(May), 1-4. https://doi.org/10.3389/fpubh.2020.00241
64. Razzaq, A., Sharif, A., Ahmad, P. & Jermsittiparsert, K. (2021). Asymmetric Role of Tourism Development and Technology Innovation on Carbon Dioxide Emission Reduction in the Chinese Economy: Fresh Insights from QARDL Approach. Sustainable Development, 29(1), 176-193. https://doi.org/10.1002/sd.2139
65. Salisu, A. A., Sikiru, A. A. & Vo, X. V. (2020). Pandemics and the Emerging Stock Markets. Borsa Istanbul Review, 20, 40-48. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.bir.2020.11.004
66. Sharif, A., Aloui, C. & Yarovaya, L. (2020). COVID-19 Pandemic, Oil Prices, Stock Market, Geopolitical Risk and Policy Uncertainty Nexus in The US Economy: Fresh Evidence from The Wavelet-Based Approach. International Review of Financial Analysis, 70(April), 101496. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.irfa.2020.101496
67. Sharma, G. D., Tiwari, A. K., Jain, M., Yadav, A. & Erkut, B. (2021). Unconditional and Conditional Analysis Between Covid-19 Cases, Temperature, Exchange Rate and Stock Markets Using Wavelet Coherence and Wavelet Partial Coherence Approaches. Heliyon, 7(2), e06181. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.heliyon.2021.e06181
68. Smith, B. & Jones, A. (2020). Nonrivalry and the Economics of Data. American Economic Review, 110(9), 2819-2858. Doi: 10.1257/aer.20191330
69. Spash, C. L. (2021). ‘The Economy’ as If People Mattered: Revisiting Critiques of Economic Growth in a Time of Crisis. Globalizations, 18(7), 1087-1104. https://doi.org/10.1080/14747731.2020.1761612
70. Syed, S. A. S. (2022). Stock Market in The Age of COVID19: Mere Acclimatization or Stockholm Syndrome?. Journal of Economic Asymmetries, 25(December 2021), e00245. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeca.2022.e00245
71. Toparlı, E. A., Çatık, A. N. & Balcılar, M. (2019). The Impact of Oil Prices on the Stock Returns in Turkey: A TVP-VAR Approach. Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, 535, 122392. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.physa.2019.122392
72. Topcu, M. & Gulal, O. S. (2020). The Impact of COVID-19 on Emerging Stock Markets. Finance Research Letters, 36, 101691.
73. Tuna, G. (2022). The Influence of Oil Price Shocks on BIST100 Index during Covid-19 Pandemic Period: Evidence from Turkey. International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 12(1), 1-8.
74. Tuna, K. (2022). The Effects of Volatilities in Oil Price, Gold Price and VIX Index on Türkiye BIST 100 Stock Index in Pandemic Period. Istanbul Journal of Economics, 72(1), 39-54. https://doi.org/10.26650/ISTJECON2021-1034794
75. Umar, M., Su, C. W., Rizvi, S. K. A. & Shao, X. F. (2021). Bitcoin: A Safe Haven Asset and A Winner Amid Political and Economic Uncertainties in the US?. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 167(April 2020), 120680. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2021.120680.
76. Ustaoğlu, E. (2022). Analysis of Relations between CDS, Stock Market, and Exchange Rate: Evidence from Covid-19. Journal of Research in Economics Politics and Finance,7(2), 301-315. Doi: 10.30784/epfad.1085420
77. Winkelmann, R. (2008). Econometric Analysis of Count Data. Springer Science World Government Bonds. (2022). World Government Bonds. http://www.worldgovernmentbonds.com/cds-historical-data/turkey/5-years/
78. Worldometer. (2022). Worldometer Statistics. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
79. WTO. (2021). Highlights of World Trade in 2020. World Trade Statistical Review 2021. https://doi.org/10.30875/58d7116b-en
80. WTO. (2022). WTO STATS Database. https://stats.wto.org/?idSavedQuery=28b93b35-5a28-42eb-a719-883dce2dd974
81. Xie, T. & Zhang, J. (2022). Financial Default Risk Prediction Algorithm Based on Neural Network Under the Background of Big Data. https://scite.ai/reports/10.1155/2022/8743778
82. Yahoo. (2023). Crude Oil July 23 (Cl=F) Stock Historical Prices Data. Yahoo! Finance. https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CL=F/history/
83. Yılmaz M., Kaya H., Coşkun E. & Korkmaz T. (2021). The Impact of COVID-19 on Sectoral Indices: Evidence from Wavelet Coherence Analysis for Turkey. Journal of Risk and Financial Management, 14(2), 66.
84. Zhang, W. & Hamori, S. (2021). Crude Oil Market and Stock Markets During The COVID-19 Pandemic: Evidence from the US, Japan, and Germany. International Review of Financial Analysis, 74, 101702. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.irfa.2021.101702
85. Zhang, Y., Liu, Z. & Shen, Y. (2020). Economic Policy Uncertainty and Exchange Rate: A Quantile-On-Quantile Approach. International Review of Economics & Finance, 69, 483-4933
86. Zhao, L., Rasoulinezhad, E., Sarker, T. & Taghizadeh-Hesary, F. (2023). Effects of COVID-19 on Global Financial Markets: Evidence from Qualitative Research for Developed and Developing Economies. The European Journal of Development Research, 35(1), 148-166. https://doi.org/10.1057/s41287-021-00494-x
87. Zivot, E. & Andrews, D. W. K. (2002). Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil-Price Shock, and the Unit-Root Hypothesis. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 20(1), 25-44. https://doi.org/10.1198/073
88. Li, Z., Farmanesh, P., Kirikkaleli, D. & Itani, R. (2022). A Comparative Analysis of COVID-19 and Global Financial Crises: Evidence from US Economy. Economic Research-Ekonomska Istraživanja, 35(1), 2427-2441. https://doi.org/10.1080/1331677X.2021.1952640