Gelişmiş Ülkelerde Sektörlerarası Üretim–Enerji Tüketimi Bağlantıları ve Toplam Faktör Verimliliği ile Enerji Enflasyonunun Rolü

Abstract

Yüksek gelirli ülkelerde üretim faaliyetleri ve enerji tüketimi ilişkisi üzerine gelişen geniş literatür, sektörlerarası enerji bağlantılarını çoğunlukla dikkate almamaktadır. Bu çalışma ise, 19 gelişmiş ülkenin 1990-2019 dönemini kapsayan panel veri setini kullanarak, tarım, sanayi ve hizmetler sektörlerinde kişi başına üretimin bu sektörlerde ve ayrıca taşıma sektöründe kişi başına enerji tüketimine olan çapraz etkilerini araştırmaktadır. Ayrıca toplam faktör verimliliği, enerji fiyatları ve nüfus göstergelerindeki değişimlerin de etkisini kontrol eden çalışma, CS-ARDL (yatay kesit genişletilmiş gecikmesi dağıtılmış otoregresif) tahmin prosedürünü uygulamaktadır. Kısa ve uzun dönem tahminler uyumlu bir biçimde şu temel bulguları ortaya koymaktadır. Tarımsal enerji tüketimi kendi üretiminden ve başka sektörlerdeki üretimden etkilenmemektedir. Sanayi enerji tüketimi kendi üretimi ile pozitif ilişkili iken hizmet üretimiyle negatif ilişkilidir. Hizmetler enerji tüketimi, büyüyen sanayi üretimiyle birlikte artmaktadır. Taşıma enerji tüketimi tarımsal ve hizmet üretimiyle pozitif ilişkilidir. Teknolojik gelişmeyi ifade eden toplam faktör verimliliği değişimi, tüm sektörlerdeki enerji tüketimiyle pozitif ilişkilidir. Yüksek enerji enflasyonu taşıma sektörü enerji tüketimini azaltırken sanayi ve hizmet sektörlerinde enerji tüketimini artırmaktadır. Çalışma, gelişmiş ülkelerin genel enerji etkinliği hedeflerini niçin ve nasıl sektörlerarası enerji bağlantılarına göre ayarlamak durumunda olduklarını tartışmaktadır.

Keywords

• Sektörel enerji tüketimi
• Sektörel Üretim
• Sektörlerarası enerji bağlantıları
• Toplam Faktör Verimliliği
• Enerji Enflasyonu
• CS-ARDL

Intersectoral Production–Energy Consumption Linkages and Roles of Multifactor Productivity and Energy Inflation in Developed Countries

Abstract

The vast literature on the relationship between production activities and energy consumption in high-income countries mostly ignores intersectoral energy linkages. Therefore, this study investigates the cross impacts of per capita production in agriculture, industry, and services sectors on per capita energy consumption in these sectors, as well as the transport sector, using a panel dataset covering 19 developed countries’ 1990-2019 period. By also controlling the changes in multifactor productivity, energy prices, and population indicators, the study applies the CS-ARDL (cross-sectionally augmented autoregressive distributed lag) estimation procedure. The short-run and long-run estimations agreeably reveal the following key findings. Agricultural energy consumption is affected by neither its own production nor that of other sectors. Industrial energy consumption is positively associated with its own production but negatively associated with service production. Service energy consumption is increased by growing industrial production. Transport energy consumption is positively associated with agricultural and service production. Multifactor productivity change, which refers to technological progress, is positively associated with energy consumption in all sectors. Higher energy inflation decreases transport energy consumption but increases energy consumption in the industrial and services sectors. The study further discusses why and how developed countries should adjust overall energy efficiency targets to intersectoral energy linkages.

Keywords

• Sectoral Energy Consumption
• Sectoral Production
• Intersectoral Energy Linkages
• Multifactor Productivity
• Energy Inflation
• CS-ARDL

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