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Asymmetric Relationships Between Natural Gas Price Inflation and Macroeconomic Factors: The Case of Turkey

Year 2024, , 342 - 361, 28.01.2024
https://doi.org/10.25295/fsecon.1365330

Abstract

Energy inflation is one of the main factors affecting macroeconomic indicators. The price inflation of natural gas, which is the basic input of electricity generation, housing, industry and service sectors and causes less CO2 emissions than other fossil fuel energy types, is the focus of this study. Natural gas, like other fossil fuels, is a scarce energy source and is not evenly distributed around the world. For this reason, some countries export natural gas, while others import natural gas. Countries that are foreign-dependent in natural gas are affected by the political, geographical and economic conjuncture of the countries they import from. In this context, Turkey was affected by Russia-Ukraine war and natural gas prices increased accordingly. The study aims to determine the asymmetric relationships between natural gas price inflation and macroeconomic factors in Turkey. For this purpose, autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) and nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) models were used for Turkey's 1998Q1-2023Q2 data. As a result of the analysis, it was determined that there was an asymmetric relationship between natural gas inflation and producer price index, gross domestic product, balance of payments. The results obtained showed the importance of natural gas found in the Black Sea and natural gas pipelines passing through Turkey (TANAP etc.), and an ecopolitical evaluation was made in this context.

References

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  • Alıcı, V. A. & Kızıltan, A. (2023). Türkiye’de Enerji Enflasyonunun Enflasyon Oranları Üzerindeki Etkisi. Trends in Business and Economics, 37(1), 12-22.
  • Andreani, M. & Giri, F. (2023). Not a Short-Run Noise! The Low-Frequency Volatility of Energy Inflation. Finance Research Letters, 51, 103477
  • Apergis, N. & Payne, J. E. (2009). Energy Consumption and Economic Growth: Evidence from the Commonwealth of Independent States. Energy Economics, 31(5), 641-647. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2009. 01.011
  • Bawa, S., Abdullahi, I. S. & Ibrahim, A. (2016). Analysis of Inflation Dynamics in Nigeria (1981-2015). CBN Journal of Applied Statistics, 7(1), 255-276.
  • Bayat, T., Şahbaz, A. & Akçacı, T. (2013). Petrol Fiyatlarının Dış Ticaret Açığı Üzerindeki Etkisi: Türkiye Örneği. Erciyes Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, (42), 67-90.
  • Bernanke, B. S. (2007, 10 July). Inflation Expectations and Inflation Forecasting. Speech at the Monetary Economics Workshop of the National Bureau of Economic Research Summer Institute, Cambridge, Massachusetts. https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/bernanke20070710a.htm, 03.09.2023.
  • Breitenfellner, A., Cuaresma, J. C. & Mayer, P. (2015). Energy Inflation and House Price Corrections. Energy Economics, 48, 109-116.
  • Bulut, E. (2020). Döviz Piyasaları Teori ve Politika. Ankara: Pelikan Yayınevi.
  • Choi, S., Furceri, D., Loungani, P., Mishra, S. & Poplawski-Ribeiro, M. (2018). Oil Prices and Inflation Dynamics: Evidence from Advanced and Developing Economies. Journal of International Money and Finance, 82, 71-96.
  • Chuku, C. A., Akpan, U. F., Sam, N. R. & Effiong, E. L. (2011). Oil Price Shocks and the Dynamics of Current Account Balances in Nigeria. OPEC Energy Review, 35(2), 119-139.
  • Clark, T. E. & Terry, S. J. (2010). Time Variation in the Inflation Passthrough of Energy Prices. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 42(7), 1419-1433.
  • Corsello, F. & Tagliabracci, A. (2023). Assessing the Pass-Through of Energy Prices to Inflation in the Euro Area. Bank of Italy Occasional Paper, (745), 4-20.
  • Cunado, J. & De Gracia, F. P. (2005). Oil Prices, Economic Activity and Inflation: Evidence for Some Asian Countries. The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, 45(1), 65-83.
  • Demirbaş, M., Türkay, H. & Türkoğlu, M. (2009). Petrol Fiyatlarındaki Gelişmelerin Türkiye’nin Cari Açığı Üzerine Etkisinin Analizi. Süleyman Demirel Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 14(3), 289-299.
  • Destek, M. A. (2016). Renewable Energy Consumption and Economic Growth in Newly Industrialized Countries: Evidence from Asymmetric Causality Test. Renewable Energy, 95, 478-484.
  • Destek, M. A. & Sinha, A. (2020). Renewable, Non-Renewable Energy Consumption, Economic Growth, Trade Openness and Ecological Footprint: Evidence from Organisation for Economic Co-Operation and Development Countries. Journal of Cleaner Production, 242, 118537.
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  • Dickey, D. A. & Fuller, W. A. (1981). Likelihood Ratio Tests for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root. Econometrica, 49, 1057-1072.
  • Doğan, M., Tekbaş, M. & Gursoy, S. (2022). The Impact of Wind and Geothermal Energy Consumption on Economic Growth and Financial Development: Evidence on Selected Countries. Geothermal Energy, 10(1), 1-14.
  • Erdoğan, S. & Bozkurt, H. (2009). Türkiye’de Cari Açığın Belirleyicileri: Mgarch Modelleri ile Bir İnceleme. Maliye ve Finans Yazıları, 1(84), 135-172.
  • Eti, S., Dinçer, H., Gökalp, Y., Yüksel, S. & Kararoğlu, D. (2023). Identifying Key Issues to Handle the Inflation Problem in the Healthcare Industry Caused by Energy Prices: An Evaluation with Decision-Making Models. U. Akkucuk (Ed.), Managing Inflation and Supply Chain Disruptions in the Global Economy (162-178). USA: IGI Global.
  • Giri, F. (2022). The Relationship between Headline, Core, and Energy Inflation: A Wavelet Investigation. Economics Letters, 210, 110214.
  • Güler İ. & Kaplan, E. A. (2022). The Relationship Between Oil Prices and Macroeconomic Indicators in Turkey. Administrative and Economics Sciences, Chapter III, 31.
  • Güler, G. (2022). The Importance of Black Sea Natural Gas for Sustainable Economic Development in Turkey. International Economics Congress Book.
  • Haider, A., Ahmed, Q. M. & Jawed, Z. (2014). Determinants of Energy Inflation in Pakistan: An Empirical Analysis. The Pakistan Development Review, 53(4), 491-504.
  • IMF. (2023). International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook Database. https://www.imf.org/en/ Publications/WEO/weo-database/2023/April, 05.09.2023.
  • Iqbal, S., Yasmin, F., Safdar, N. & Safdar, M. (2021). Investigation of Energy Inflation Dynamics in Pakistan: Revisiting the Role of Structural Determinants. Review of Applied Management and Social Sciences, 4(2), 371-380. https://doi.org/10.47067/ramss.v4i2.137
  • Karabulut, G. & Danışoğlu, A. Ç. (2006). Türkiye’de Cari İşlemler Açığının Büyümesini Etkileyen Faktörler. Gazi Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 8(1), 47-63.
  • Kevser, M., Tekbaş, M., Doğan, M., & Koyluoglu, S. (2022). Nexus Among Biomass Energy Consumption, Economic Growth, and Financial Development: Evidence from Selected 15 Countries. Energy Reports, 8, 8372-8380.
  • Kousar, S., Sabir, S. A., Ahmed, F. & Bojnec, Š. (2022). Climate Change, Exchange Rate, Twin Deficit, and Energy Inflation: Application of VAR Model. Energies, 15(20), 7663.
  • Köse, N. & Ünal, E. (2021). The Effects of the Oil Price and Oil Price Volatility on Inflation in Turkey. Energy, 226, 120392.
  • LeBlanc, M. & Chinn, M. D. (2004). Do High Oil Prices Presage Inflation? The Evidence from G-5 Countries. UC Santa Cruz Economics Working Paper No. 561. SCCIE Working Paper No. 04-04. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.509262
  • Lıaqat, M., Ashraf, A., Nisar, S. & Khursheed, A. (2022). The Impact of Oil Price Inflation on Economic Growth of Oil Importing Economies: Empirical Evidence from Pakistan. The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business, 9(1), 167-176.
  • Maslow, A. H. (1943). A Theory of Human Motivation. Psychological Review, 50, 370-396.
  • Okumus, I., Guzel, A. E. & Destek, M. A. (2021). Renewable, Non-Renewable Energy Consumption and Economic Growth Nexus in G7: Fresh Evidence from CS-ARDL. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 28(40), 56595-56605.
  • Özlale, Ü. & Pekkurnaz, D. (2010). Oil Prices and Current Account: A Structural Analysis for the Turkish Economy. Energy Policy, 38(8), 4489-4496.
  • Pata, U. K., Erdogan, S. & Ozkan, O. (2023). Is Reducing Fossil Fuel Intensity Important for Environmental Management and Ensuring Ecological Efficiency in China?. Journal of Environmental Management, 329, 117080.
  • Pesaran, M. H. & Shin, Y. (1998) An Autoregressive Distributed-Lag Modelling Approach to Cointegration Analysis. Econometrics and Economic Theory in the 20th Century: The Ragnar Frisch Centennial Symposium, 31, 371-413.
  • Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y. & Smith, R. J. (2001). Bounds Testing Approaches to the Analysis of Level Relationships. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16(3), 289-326.
  • Qianqian, Z. (2011). The Impact of International Oil Price Fluctuation on China's Economy. Energy Procedia, 5, 1360-1364.
  • Shahbaz, M., Destek, M. A., Okumus, I. & Sinha, A. (2019). An Empirical Note on Comparison Between Resource Abundance and Resource Dependence in Resource Abundant Countries. Resources Policy, 60, 47-55.
  • Shahbaz, M., Topcu, B. A., Sarıgül, S. S. & Doğan, M. (2023). Energy Imports as Inhibitor of Economic Growth: The Role of Impact of Renewable and Non-Renewable Energy Consumption. The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, 1-26.
  • Shin, Y., Yu, B. & Greenwood-Nimmo, M. (2014). Modelling Asymmetric Cointegration and Dynamic Multipliers in an ARDL Framework. W. C. Horrace & R. C. Sickles (Eds.), Festschrift in Honor of Peter Schmidt: Econometric Methods and Applications. New York: Springer Science & Business Media.
  • Siyaset, Ekonomi ve Toplum Araştırmaları Vakfı (SETA). (2022). 2022’de Türkiye. M. Ataman & C. D. Uzun (Der.). https://setav.org/assets/uploads/2022/12/2022deTr.pdf 01.08.2023.
  • Soliman, A. M., Lau, C. K., Cai, Y., Sarker, P. K. & Dastgir, S. (2023). Asymmetric Effects of Energy Inflation, Agri-inflation and CPI on Agricultural Output: Evidence from NARDL and SVAR Models for the UK. Energy Economics, 126, 106920.
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Doğalgaz Fiyat Enflasyonu ve Makroekonomik Faktörler Arasındaki İlişki: Türkiye Örneği

Year 2024, , 342 - 361, 28.01.2024
https://doi.org/10.25295/fsecon.1365330

Abstract

Enerji enflasyonu, makroekonomik göstergeleri etkileyen temel faktörlerden biridir. Elektrik üretimi, konutlar, sanayi, hizmet sektörlerinin temel girdisi olan ve diğer fosil yakıtlı enerji türlerine göre daha az CO2 emisyonuna neden olan doğalgazın, fiyat enflasyonu, bu çalışmanın odak noktasını oluşturmaktadır. Doğalgaz diğer fosil kaynaklı yakıtlar gibi kıt bir enerji kaynağı olup Dünya’ya eşit dağılmamıştır. Bu nedenle bazı ülkeler doğalgaz ihraç ederken, bazıları da doğalgaz ithal etmektedir. Doğalgazda dışa bağımlı ülkeler, ithalat yaptıkları ülkelerin siyasi, coğrafi ve ekonomik konjonktüründen etkilenmektedir. Bu bağlamda Türkiye, Rusya-Ukrayna savaşından etkilendi ve buna bağlı olarak doğalgaz fiyatları yükselmiştir. Çalışmanın amacı, doğalgaz fiyat enflasyonu ile makroekonomik faktörler arasındaki asimetrik ilişkileri tespit etmektir. Bu amaçla, Türkiye’nin 1998Q1-2023Q2 verileri için gecikmesi dağıtılmış otoregresif (ARDL) and doğrusal olmayan gecikmesi dağıtılmış otoregresif (NARDL) modelleri kullanılmıştır. Analiz sonucunda, doğalgaz enflasyonu ve üretici fiyat endeksi, gayri safi yurt içi hasıla ödemeler dengesi arasında asimetrik ilişki olduğu belirlenmiştir. Elde edilen sonuçlar, Karadeniz’de bulunan doğalgaz ve güzergahı Türkiye’den geçen doğalgaz boru hatlarının (TANAP vb.) önemini göstermiş, bu çerçevede ekopolitik bir değerlendirme yapılmıştır.

References

  • Akıncı, M., Aktürk, E. & Yılmaz, Ö. (2012). Petrol Fiyatları ile Ekonomik Büyüme Arasındaki İlişki: OPEC ve Petrol İthalatçısı Ülkeleri İçin Panel Veri Analizi. Uludağ Journal of Economy & Society/Uludağ Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 31(2).
  • Alıcı, V. A. & Kızıltan, A. (2023). Türkiye’de Enerji Enflasyonunun Enflasyon Oranları Üzerindeki Etkisi. Trends in Business and Economics, 37(1), 12-22.
  • Andreani, M. & Giri, F. (2023). Not a Short-Run Noise! The Low-Frequency Volatility of Energy Inflation. Finance Research Letters, 51, 103477
  • Apergis, N. & Payne, J. E. (2009). Energy Consumption and Economic Growth: Evidence from the Commonwealth of Independent States. Energy Economics, 31(5), 641-647. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2009. 01.011
  • Bawa, S., Abdullahi, I. S. & Ibrahim, A. (2016). Analysis of Inflation Dynamics in Nigeria (1981-2015). CBN Journal of Applied Statistics, 7(1), 255-276.
  • Bayat, T., Şahbaz, A. & Akçacı, T. (2013). Petrol Fiyatlarının Dış Ticaret Açığı Üzerindeki Etkisi: Türkiye Örneği. Erciyes Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, (42), 67-90.
  • Bernanke, B. S. (2007, 10 July). Inflation Expectations and Inflation Forecasting. Speech at the Monetary Economics Workshop of the National Bureau of Economic Research Summer Institute, Cambridge, Massachusetts. https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/bernanke20070710a.htm, 03.09.2023.
  • Breitenfellner, A., Cuaresma, J. C. & Mayer, P. (2015). Energy Inflation and House Price Corrections. Energy Economics, 48, 109-116.
  • Bulut, E. (2020). Döviz Piyasaları Teori ve Politika. Ankara: Pelikan Yayınevi.
  • Choi, S., Furceri, D., Loungani, P., Mishra, S. & Poplawski-Ribeiro, M. (2018). Oil Prices and Inflation Dynamics: Evidence from Advanced and Developing Economies. Journal of International Money and Finance, 82, 71-96.
  • Chuku, C. A., Akpan, U. F., Sam, N. R. & Effiong, E. L. (2011). Oil Price Shocks and the Dynamics of Current Account Balances in Nigeria. OPEC Energy Review, 35(2), 119-139.
  • Clark, T. E. & Terry, S. J. (2010). Time Variation in the Inflation Passthrough of Energy Prices. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 42(7), 1419-1433.
  • Corsello, F. & Tagliabracci, A. (2023). Assessing the Pass-Through of Energy Prices to Inflation in the Euro Area. Bank of Italy Occasional Paper, (745), 4-20.
  • Cunado, J. & De Gracia, F. P. (2005). Oil Prices, Economic Activity and Inflation: Evidence for Some Asian Countries. The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, 45(1), 65-83.
  • Demirbaş, M., Türkay, H. & Türkoğlu, M. (2009). Petrol Fiyatlarındaki Gelişmelerin Türkiye’nin Cari Açığı Üzerine Etkisinin Analizi. Süleyman Demirel Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 14(3), 289-299.
  • Destek, M. A. (2016). Renewable Energy Consumption and Economic Growth in Newly Industrialized Countries: Evidence from Asymmetric Causality Test. Renewable Energy, 95, 478-484.
  • Destek, M. A. & Sinha, A. (2020). Renewable, Non-Renewable Energy Consumption, Economic Growth, Trade Openness and Ecological Footprint: Evidence from Organisation for Economic Co-Operation and Development Countries. Journal of Cleaner Production, 242, 118537.
  • Dickey, D. A. & Fuller, W. A., (1979). Distribution of the Estimators for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 74, 427-431.
  • Dickey, D. A. & Fuller, W. A. (1981). Likelihood Ratio Tests for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root. Econometrica, 49, 1057-1072.
  • Doğan, M., Tekbaş, M. & Gursoy, S. (2022). The Impact of Wind and Geothermal Energy Consumption on Economic Growth and Financial Development: Evidence on Selected Countries. Geothermal Energy, 10(1), 1-14.
  • Erdoğan, S. & Bozkurt, H. (2009). Türkiye’de Cari Açığın Belirleyicileri: Mgarch Modelleri ile Bir İnceleme. Maliye ve Finans Yazıları, 1(84), 135-172.
  • Eti, S., Dinçer, H., Gökalp, Y., Yüksel, S. & Kararoğlu, D. (2023). Identifying Key Issues to Handle the Inflation Problem in the Healthcare Industry Caused by Energy Prices: An Evaluation with Decision-Making Models. U. Akkucuk (Ed.), Managing Inflation and Supply Chain Disruptions in the Global Economy (162-178). USA: IGI Global.
  • Giri, F. (2022). The Relationship between Headline, Core, and Energy Inflation: A Wavelet Investigation. Economics Letters, 210, 110214.
  • Güler İ. & Kaplan, E. A. (2022). The Relationship Between Oil Prices and Macroeconomic Indicators in Turkey. Administrative and Economics Sciences, Chapter III, 31.
  • Güler, G. (2022). The Importance of Black Sea Natural Gas for Sustainable Economic Development in Turkey. International Economics Congress Book.
  • Haider, A., Ahmed, Q. M. & Jawed, Z. (2014). Determinants of Energy Inflation in Pakistan: An Empirical Analysis. The Pakistan Development Review, 53(4), 491-504.
  • IMF. (2023). International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook Database. https://www.imf.org/en/ Publications/WEO/weo-database/2023/April, 05.09.2023.
  • Iqbal, S., Yasmin, F., Safdar, N. & Safdar, M. (2021). Investigation of Energy Inflation Dynamics in Pakistan: Revisiting the Role of Structural Determinants. Review of Applied Management and Social Sciences, 4(2), 371-380. https://doi.org/10.47067/ramss.v4i2.137
  • Karabulut, G. & Danışoğlu, A. Ç. (2006). Türkiye’de Cari İşlemler Açığının Büyümesini Etkileyen Faktörler. Gazi Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 8(1), 47-63.
  • Kevser, M., Tekbaş, M., Doğan, M., & Koyluoglu, S. (2022). Nexus Among Biomass Energy Consumption, Economic Growth, and Financial Development: Evidence from Selected 15 Countries. Energy Reports, 8, 8372-8380.
  • Kousar, S., Sabir, S. A., Ahmed, F. & Bojnec, Š. (2022). Climate Change, Exchange Rate, Twin Deficit, and Energy Inflation: Application of VAR Model. Energies, 15(20), 7663.
  • Köse, N. & Ünal, E. (2021). The Effects of the Oil Price and Oil Price Volatility on Inflation in Turkey. Energy, 226, 120392.
  • LeBlanc, M. & Chinn, M. D. (2004). Do High Oil Prices Presage Inflation? The Evidence from G-5 Countries. UC Santa Cruz Economics Working Paper No. 561. SCCIE Working Paper No. 04-04. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.509262
  • Lıaqat, M., Ashraf, A., Nisar, S. & Khursheed, A. (2022). The Impact of Oil Price Inflation on Economic Growth of Oil Importing Economies: Empirical Evidence from Pakistan. The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business, 9(1), 167-176.
  • Maslow, A. H. (1943). A Theory of Human Motivation. Psychological Review, 50, 370-396.
  • Okumus, I., Guzel, A. E. & Destek, M. A. (2021). Renewable, Non-Renewable Energy Consumption and Economic Growth Nexus in G7: Fresh Evidence from CS-ARDL. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 28(40), 56595-56605.
  • Özlale, Ü. & Pekkurnaz, D. (2010). Oil Prices and Current Account: A Structural Analysis for the Turkish Economy. Energy Policy, 38(8), 4489-4496.
  • Pata, U. K., Erdogan, S. & Ozkan, O. (2023). Is Reducing Fossil Fuel Intensity Important for Environmental Management and Ensuring Ecological Efficiency in China?. Journal of Environmental Management, 329, 117080.
  • Pesaran, M. H. & Shin, Y. (1998) An Autoregressive Distributed-Lag Modelling Approach to Cointegration Analysis. Econometrics and Economic Theory in the 20th Century: The Ragnar Frisch Centennial Symposium, 31, 371-413.
  • Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y. & Smith, R. J. (2001). Bounds Testing Approaches to the Analysis of Level Relationships. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16(3), 289-326.
  • Qianqian, Z. (2011). The Impact of International Oil Price Fluctuation on China's Economy. Energy Procedia, 5, 1360-1364.
  • Shahbaz, M., Destek, M. A., Okumus, I. & Sinha, A. (2019). An Empirical Note on Comparison Between Resource Abundance and Resource Dependence in Resource Abundant Countries. Resources Policy, 60, 47-55.
  • Shahbaz, M., Topcu, B. A., Sarıgül, S. S. & Doğan, M. (2023). Energy Imports as Inhibitor of Economic Growth: The Role of Impact of Renewable and Non-Renewable Energy Consumption. The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, 1-26.
  • Shin, Y., Yu, B. & Greenwood-Nimmo, M. (2014). Modelling Asymmetric Cointegration and Dynamic Multipliers in an ARDL Framework. W. C. Horrace & R. C. Sickles (Eds.), Festschrift in Honor of Peter Schmidt: Econometric Methods and Applications. New York: Springer Science & Business Media.
  • Siyaset, Ekonomi ve Toplum Araştırmaları Vakfı (SETA). (2022). 2022’de Türkiye. M. Ataman & C. D. Uzun (Der.). https://setav.org/assets/uploads/2022/12/2022deTr.pdf 01.08.2023.
  • Soliman, A. M., Lau, C. K., Cai, Y., Sarker, P. K. & Dastgir, S. (2023). Asymmetric Effects of Energy Inflation, Agri-inflation and CPI on Agricultural Output: Evidence from NARDL and SVAR Models for the UK. Energy Economics, 126, 106920.
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There are 57 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language English
Subjects Growth, Inflation, Macroeconomics (Other)
Journal Section Articles
Authors

İlkay Güler 0000-0003-1289-6652

Publication Date January 28, 2024
Published in Issue Year 2024

Cite

APA Güler, İ. (2024). Asymmetric Relationships Between Natural Gas Price Inflation and Macroeconomic Factors: The Case of Turkey. Fiscaoeconomia, 8(1), 342-361. https://doi.org/10.25295/fsecon.1365330

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