Asymmetric Relationships Between Natural Gas Price Inflation and Macroeconomic Factors: The Case of Turkey

Abstract

Energy inflation is one of the main factors affecting macroeconomic indicators. The price inflation of natural gas, which is the basic input of electricity generation, housing, industry and service sectors and causes less CO2 emissions than other fossil fuel energy types, is the focus of this study. Natural gas, like other fossil fuels, is a scarce energy source and is not evenly distributed around the world. For this reason, some countries export natural gas, while others import natural gas. Countries that are foreign-dependent in natural gas are affected by the political, geographical and economic conjuncture of the countries they import from. In this context, Turkey was affected by Russia-Ukraine war and natural gas prices increased accordingly. The study aims to determine the asymmetric relationships between natural gas price inflation and macroeconomic factors in Turkey. For this purpose, autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) and nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) models were used for Turkey's 1998Q1-2023Q2 data. As a result of the analysis, it was determined that there was an asymmetric relationship between natural gas inflation and producer price index, gross domestic product, balance of payments. The results obtained showed the importance of natural gas found in the Black Sea and natural gas pipelines passing through Turkey (TANAP etc.), and an ecopolitical evaluation was made in this context.

Keywords

• Natural Gas Price Inflation
• Current Account Deficit
• Inflation
• Economic Growth
• Energy Economy

Doğalgaz Fiyat Enflasyonu ve Makroekonomik Faktörler Arasındaki İlişki: Türkiye Örneği

Öz

Enerji enflasyonu, makroekonomik göstergeleri etkileyen temel faktörlerden biridir. Elektrik üretimi, konutlar, sanayi, hizmet sektörlerinin temel girdisi olan ve diğer fosil yakıtlı enerji türlerine göre daha az CO2 emisyonuna neden olan doğalgazın, fiyat enflasyonu, bu çalışmanın odak noktasını oluşturmaktadır. Doğalgaz diğer fosil kaynaklı yakıtlar gibi kıt bir enerji kaynağı olup Dünya’ya eşit dağılmamıştır. Bu nedenle bazı ülkeler doğalgaz ihraç ederken, bazıları da doğalgaz ithal etmektedir. Doğalgazda dışa bağımlı ülkeler, ithalat yaptıkları ülkelerin siyasi, coğrafi ve ekonomik konjonktüründen etkilenmektedir. Bu bağlamda Türkiye, Rusya-Ukrayna savaşından etkilendi ve buna bağlı olarak doğalgaz fiyatları yükselmiştir. Çalışmanın amacı, doğalgaz fiyat enflasyonu ile makroekonomik faktörler arasındaki asimetrik ilişkileri tespit etmektir. Bu amaçla, Türkiye’nin 1998Q1-2023Q2 verileri için gecikmesi dağıtılmış otoregresif (ARDL) and doğrusal olmayan gecikmesi dağıtılmış otoregresif (NARDL) modelleri kullanılmıştır. Analiz sonucunda, doğalgaz enflasyonu ve üretici fiyat endeksi, gayri safi yurt içi hasıla ödemeler dengesi arasında asimetrik ilişki olduğu belirlenmiştir. Elde edilen sonuçlar, Karadeniz’de bulunan doğalgaz ve güzergahı Türkiye’den geçen doğalgaz boru hatlarının (TANAP vb.) önemini göstermiş, bu çerçevede ekopolitik bir değerlendirme yapılmıştır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Doğalgaz Fiyat Enflasyonu
• Cari Açık
• Enflasyon
• Ekonomik Büyüme
• Enerji Ekonomisi

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