Is The Median Voter Hypothesis Valid in Developed Countries?

Abstract

According to the median-voter hypothesis, the size of the public sector in terms of the redistribution of income is determined by the majority rule. This hypothesis suggests that an increase in average income relative to median income increases the size of government, because voters that have the median income are the decision-making voters. The meaning of the size of the public sector here is social expenditures, tax rates, and public debts. This paper aims to analyze the validity of the median-voter hypothesis on the basis of 24 developed countries for the period 2004-2018. Results of the analysis conducted via the Arellano-Bover/Blundell-Bond Two-Stage System Generalized Method of Moments influentially support the claims of the median voter hypothesis about social expenditures, tax rates, and public debts. Results are also valid in terms of their different versions that include control variables of the constructed master patterns.

Keywords

• Median Voter Hypothesis
• Public Debts
• Social Expenditures
• Marginal Tax Rate
• Dynamic Panel Data Analysis

Gelişmiş Ülkelerde Ortanca Seçmen Hipotezi Geçerli mi?

Abstract

Ortanca seçmen hipotezine göre gelirin yeniden dağıtımı açısından kamu kesimi büyüklüğü, çoğunluk kuralı tarafından belirlenir. Bu hipotez, ortalama gelirin ortanca gelire göre artışının kamu büyüklüğünü artırdığını ileri sürer. Çünkü ortanca gelire sahip olan seçmen karar verici seçmendir. Burada kamu büyüklüğünden kasıt ise, sosyal harcamalar, vergi oranları ve kamu borçlarıdır. Bu çalışma da ortanca seçmen hipotezinin geçerliliğini, 24 gelişmiş ülke üzerinden 2004-2018 dönemi için araştırmayı amaçlar. Arellano-Bover/Blundell-Bond İki Aşamalı Sistem Genelleştirilmiş Momentler Methodu ile yapılan analiz sonuçları; ortanca seçmen hipotezinin sosyal harcama, vergi oranları ve kamu borçlanması ile ilgili iddialarını güçlü bir şekilde desteklemektedir. Sonuçlar, kurulan ana modellerin kontrol değişkenlerini içeren farklı versiyonları açısından da geçerlidir.

Keywords

• Ortanca Seçmen Hipotezi
• Kamu Borçları
• Sosyal Harcamalar
• Marjinal Vergi Oranı
• Dinamik Panel Veri Analizi

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