Avrupa Hava Sahasında Petrol Bağımlılığı ve Karlılık Arasındaki İlişki Üzerine Araştırma

Abstract

Hava Seyrüsefer (Navigasyon) karlılığı sivil havacılığın en önemli konularından biridir. Sivil havacılıkta bu alanda daha iyi kârlılık oranları sağlamak için ülkelerin hava sahalarının daha etkili ve etkin kullanılmasına odaklanması gerekmektedir. Avrupa kıtası, petrol kaynaklarının seyrekliliği ile bilinmektedir. Bu araştırmada Avrupa hava sahasında petrol ve petrole bağlı ürün ithali ile hava sahası kullanımı arasında bir ilişki olup olmadığı araştırılmaktadır. Bunu yaparken, araştırma modeline GDP, işgücü, yolcu ve kargo sayıları, nüfus değişkenleri koyulmuştur. Araştırma, ülkeler dikkate alındığında, en karlı navigasyon hizmetlerinin özellikleri konusunda önemli bir bilimsel boşluğu kapatacaktır. MABAC skorlarına göre en hava trafik sahasının karlı kullanımı arttıkça, petrol ve petrol ithali artmaktadır. Bu durum Avrupa Havacılık Sisteminde ve hava coğrafyasında beklenen bir sonuç olmakla birlikte, 2017-2020 yılları arasında Gayri Safi Yurtiçi Hasıla, İşgücü, Hava yolcu sayıları gibi diğer değişkenler de dikkate alındığında oldukça önemli bir bulgudur. Türkiye, Gürcistan, Ermenistan, Estonia, Arnavutluk, Letonya ve İspanya gibi ülkeler, coğrafi ve hava trafiği yönetimi açısından olarak stratejik konumlarının yanı sıra, en yüksek seviyede petrol ve petrol türevi ithal eden ülkelerdir.

Keywords

• Hava Seyrüsefer
• Karlılık
• MABAC
• Petrol Bağımlılığı

Research on the Relationship Between Oil Dependence and Profitability in the Airspace of Europe

Abstract

Air Navigation profitability is one of the key issues in civil aviation. To ensure good profitability ratios in civil aviation, the countries should focus on efficient and effective air space utilization. The European continent is known for the rareness of oil resources. This research investigates if there is a relationship between oil importing and air space utilization in European air space. While it realizes GSYIH, labour force, passenger and cargo numbers are utilized. It will close an important scientific gap regarding the features of the most profitable navigation services considering countries. According to MABAC scores, generally, as the profitability scores increase, the importing of oil and oil-related products increases. This situation is an expected result in the European Aviation System and air geography, but it is also so important finding as other variables are taken into account such as Gross Domestic Product, Labor force, and Air passenger numbers between the years 2017-2020. Countries such as Turkey, Georgia, Armenia, Estonia, Albania, Latvia and Spain are the most oil and oil-related importing countries, besides their strategic locations regarding geography and air traffic management.

Keywords

• Air Navigation
• Profitability
• MABAC
• Oil Dependence

References

1. Ball, M., Donohue, G. & Hoffman, K. (2006). Auctions for the safe, efficient, and equitable allocation of airspace system resources. Combinatorial Auctions, 1.
2. Bauranov, A. & Rakas, J. (2021). Designing airspace for urban air mobility: A review of concepts and approaches. Progress in Aerospace Sciences, 125, 100726.
3. Becker, T. (2016). Russia's oil dependence and the EU (No. 38). SITE Working paper.
4. Berdysheva, S. & Ikonnikova, S. (2021). The energy transition and shifts in fossil fuel use: the study of international energy trade and energy security dynamics. Energies, 14(17), 5396.
5. Bernstein, J., Richter, A. W. & Throckmorton, N. A. (2020). Covid-19: A view from the labor market (April 2020). FRB of Dallas Working Paper No. 2010. http://dx.doi.org/10.24149/wp2010
6. Bluszcz, A. (2017). European economies in terms of energy dependence. Quality & Quantity, 51, 1531-1548.
7. Button, K. & Neiva, R. (2013). Single European Sky and the functional airspace blocks: Will they improve economic efficiency?. Journal of Air Transport Management, 33, 73-80.
8. Button, K. & Neiva, R. (2014). Economic efficiency of European air traffic control systems. Journal of Transport Economics and Policy (JTEP), 48(1), 65-80.

9. Chen, J., Xie, Q., Shahbaz, M., Song, M. & Wu, Y. (2021). The fossil energy trade relations among BRICS countries. Energy, 217, 119383.
10. Christie, E. (2007). Oil and gas dependence of EU-15 countries (No. 343). wiiw Research Report. https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/204115/1/wiiw-research-rep-343.pdf, Access time: 19.12.2024.
11. Gaxiola, C. A. N., Barrado, C., Royo, P. & Pastor, E. (2018). Assessment of the North European free route airspace deployment. Journal of Air Transport Management, 73, 113-119.
12. Ge, F. & Fan, Y. (2013). Quantifying the risk to crude oil imports in China: An improved portfolio approach. Energy Economics, 40, 72-80.
13. Ghosh, S. (2009). Import demand of crude oil and economic growth: Evidence from India. Energy Policy, 37(2), 699-702.
14. Habibi, Z., Habibi, H. & Mohammadi, M. A. (2022). The potential impact of COVID-19 on the Chinese GDP, trade, and economy. Economies, 10(4), 73.
15. Havrlant, D., Darandary, A. & Muhsen, A. (2021). Early estimates of the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on GDP: A case study of Saudi Arabia. Applied Economics, 53(12), 1317-1325.
16. Hoekstra, J. M., Maas, J., Tra, M. & Sunil, E. (2016, June). How do layered airspace design parameters affect airspace capacity and safety? Proceedings of the 7th International Conference on Research in Air Transportation (1-8). ICRAT Philadelphia, USA.
17. Jena, P. R., Majhi, R., Kalli, R., Managi, S. & Majhi, B. (2021). Impact of COVID-19 on GDP of major economies: Application of the artificial neural network forecaster. Economic Analysis and Policy, 69, 324-339.
18. Kim, H. S. & Baek, J. (2013). Assessing dynamics of crude oil import demand in Korea. Economic Modelling, 35, 260-263.
19. Kopardekar, P., Bilimoria, K. & Sridhar, B. (2007, September). Initial concepts for dynamic airspace configuration. 7th AIAA ATIO Conf, 2nd CEIAT Int'l Conf on Innov and Integr in Aero Sciences, 17th LTA Systems Tech Conf; followed by the 2nd TEOS Forum (7763).
20. Krozel, J., Penny, S., Prete, J. & Mitchell, J. S. (2007). Automated route generation for avoiding deterministic weather in transition airspace. Journal of Guidance, Control, and Dynamics, 30(1), 144-153.
21. Lin, B. & Bai, R. (2021). Oil prices and economic policy uncertainty: Evidence from global, oil importers, and exporters’ perspective. Research in International Business and Finance, 56, 101357.
22. Liu, L. J., Jiang, H. D., Liang, Q. M., Creutzig, F., Liao, H., Yao, Y. F., ... & Wei, Y. M. (2023). Carbon emissions and economic impacts of an EU embargo on Russian fossil fuels. Nature Climate Change, 13(3), 290-296.
23. Mitchell, J., Polishchuk, V. & Krozel, J. (2006, August). Airspace throughput analysis considering stochastic weather. AIAA Guidance, Navigation, and Control conference and exhibit (6770).
24. Ölçen, O. & Alnıpak, S. (2023). A profitability analysis of air navigation service providers in European Zone: COVID-19 crisis. Journal of Aviation, 7(1), 110-122.
25. Oster, C. V. & Strong, J. F. (2009). Managing the skies-public policy, organization and financing of air traffic management. Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, 28(1), 182-185.
26. Ostroumov, I., Kharchenko, V. & Kuzmenko, N. (2019). An airspace analysis according to area navigation requirements. Aviation, 23(2), 36-42.
27. Pickering, B., Lombardi, F. & Pfenninger, S. (2022). Diversity of options to eliminate fossil fuels and reach carbon neutrality across the entire European energy system. Joule, 6(6), 1253-1276.
28. Raffarin, M. (2004). Congestion in European airspace. Journal of Transport Economics and Policy (JTEP), 38(1), 109-125.
29. Rapaić, S. & Novaković, M. (2013). Dependence of the EU energy market on Russian oil and gas. Institute of International Politics and Economics. http://repozitorijum.diplomacy.bg.ac.rs/328/ , Access time: 19.12.2024.
30. Rezaei Sadr, N., Bahrdo, T. & Taghizadeh, R. (2022). Impacts of Paris Agreement, fossil fuel consumption, and net energy imports on CO2 emissions: a panel data approach for three West European countries. Clean Technologies and Environmental Policy, 24(5), 1521-1534.
31. Salisu, A. A., Adediran, I. A. & Gupta, R. (2022). A note on the COVID-19 shock and real GDP in emerging economies. Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 58(1), 93-101.
32. Schönsteiner, K., Massier, T. & Hamacher, T. (2016). Sustainable transport by use of alternative marine and aviation fuels—A well-to-tank analysis to assess interactions with Singapore's energy system. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 65, 853-871.
33. Skorup, B. (2019). Auctioning airspace. NCJL & Tech., 21, 79.
34. Sun, M., Gao, C. & Shen, B. (2014). Quantifying China's oil import risks and the impact on the national economy. Energy Policy, 67, 605-611.
35. Sun, X., Liu, C., Chen, X. & Li, J. (2017). Modelling systemic risk of crude oil imports: Case of China’s global oil supply chain. Energy, 121, 449-465.
36. Sunil, E., Hoekstra, J., Ellerbroek, J., Bussink, F., Vidosavljevic, A., Delahaye, D. & Aalmoes, R. (2016, June). The influence of traffic structure on airspace capacity. In 7th International Conference on Research in Air Transportation (Vol. 4).
37. Tatoğlu, F. (2020). Econometrics of panel data (5. Version 2020).
38. Vieira, L. C., Longo, M. & Mura, M. (2023). From carbon dependence to renewables: The European oil majors' strategies to face climate change. Business Strategy and the Environment, 32(4), 1248-1259.
39. Villard, P. & De La Cámara, J. (2012). ‘Case studies on commercialization, privatization and economic oversight of airports and air navigation services providers’–A tool for policy-makers, policy analysts and practitioners. Journal of Airport Management, 6(2), 133-140.
40. Vivoda, V. (2009). Diversification of oil import sources and energy security: a key strategy or an elusive objective?. Energy Policy, 37(11), 4615-4623.
41. Wang, D., Ding, R., Gong, Y., Wang, R., Wang, J. & Huang, X. (2020). Feasibility of the Northern Sea Route for oil shipping from the economic and environmental perspective and its influence on China's oil imports. Marine Policy, 118, 104006.
42. Wang, W., Fan, L. W. & Zhou, P. (2022). Evolution of global fossil fuel trade dependencies. Energy, 238, 121924.
43. Wu, G., Liu, L. C. & Wei, Y. M. (2009). Comparison of China's oil import risk: Results based on portfolio theory and a diversification index approach. Energy Policy, 37(9), 3557-3565.
44. Wu, G., Wei, Y. M., Fan, Y. & Liu, L. C. (2007). An empirical analysis of the risk of crude oil imports in China using an improved portfolio approach. Energy policy, 35(8), 4190-4199.
45. Yahya, M., Dutta, A., Bouri, E., Wadström, C. & Uddin, G. S. (2022). Dependence structure between the international crude oil market and the European markets of biodiesel and rapeseed oil. Renewable Energy, 197, 594-605.
46. Zelinski, S. & Lai, C. F. (2011). Comparing methods for dynamic airspace configuration. 2011 IEEE/AIAA 30th Digital Avionics Systems Conference (3A1-1). IEEE.
47. Zhang, H. Y., Ji, Q. & Fan, Y. (2013). An evaluation framework for oil import security based on the supply chain with a case study focused on China. Energy Economics, 38, 87-95.
48. Zhao, X. & Wu, Y. (2007). Determinants of China's energy imports: an empirical analysis. Energy Policy, 35(8), 4235-4246.