Yükselen Piyasa Ekonomilerinde Uluslararası Rezerv Birikimi: Küresel Faktörlerin Rolü

Abstract

Bu çalışma, küresel likidite ve riskin yükselen piyasa ekonomilerinin rezerv birikiminde önemli bir etken olup olmadığını International Monetary Fund (IMF) tarafından yükselen piyasa ekonomisi olarak nitelendirilen 46 ülke ve 2000-2019 dönemi için incelemektedir. Panel veri teknikleri ve Lane & Milesi-Ferretti’ye (2022) ait External Wealth of Nations II veri tabanına ve küresel faktörler için çeşitli veri kaynaklarına dayanan geniş bir veriseti kullanılarak yapılan bu çalışma, ilk olarak küresel likidite ve uluslararası rezervler arasında pozitif yönlü bir ilişki olduğunu göstermektedir. İkinci olarak finansal faktörlerin artan etkisini dikkate alarak sermaye girişleri, sermaye kontrolleri ve küresel faktörlerin ortak etkilerini test etmekte ve ülkelerin (i) küresel likiditenin bol olduğu dönemlerde dış yükümlülükler arttıkça ve (ii) yüksek güven kaybının olduğu dönemlerde sermaye kontrol politikası sıkılaştıkça daha fazla rezerv biriktirme eğiliminde olduklarına dair kanıtlar sunmaktadır. Son olarak bu çalışma, hangi tür sermaye girişinin uluslararası rezervler üzerinde daha etkili olduğunu ve rezerv birikiminin belirleyenlerinin örneklem dönemi içinde değişip değişmediğini sorgulamaktadır. Sonuçlar, ülkelerin doğrudan yabancı yatırım girişlerine (DYY) diğer sermaye giriş türlerinden daha fazla tepki verdiğini ve küresel likidite ve riskin etkilerinin 2008-2019 döneminde daha belirgin olduğunu ortaya koymaktadır.

Keywords

• Uluslararası rezervler
• küresel likidite
• küresel risk
• yükselen piyasa ekonomileri

International Reserve Accumulation in Emerging Market Economies: The Role of Global Factors

Abstract

This study examines whether global liquidity and risk matter for the international reserve accumulation in 46 countries characterized as Emerging Market Economies (EMEs) by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) from 2000 to 2019. By using panel data techniques and a broad dataset based on Lane and Milesi-Ferretti's (2022) External Wealth of Nations II database and various data sources for global factors, this paper first shows that global liquidity is positively associated with international reserve holdings. Second, in consideration of greater reliance on financial factors, it tests the joint effects of capital inflows, capital controls, and global factors and provides evidence that countries tend to accumulate larger international reserves as (i) external liabilities grow in periods of abundant global liquidity and (ii) capital control policy tightens in periods of high confidence loss. Finally, this work questions which type of capital inflow has a greater impact on international reserve holdings and whether the drivers of reserve accumulation evolved over the sample period. The results suggest that countries respond to FDI inflows more than other inflows, and the impacts of global liquidity and risk become more apparent between 2008 and 2019.

Keywords

• international reserves
• global liquidity
• global risk
• emerging market economies

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