Konjonktürel Dalgalanmalarda Maliye Politikasının Yönü: OECD Örneği

Öz

Bu çalışmanın temel amacı 2002-2021 dönemine 33 OECD ülkesinde konjonktürel dalgalanmalar karşısında maliye politikasının yönünü tespit etmektir. Bu amaçla yola çıkan çalışma iki temel araştırma sorusuna dayanmaktadır. Bunlardan ilki “OECD ülkelerinde, konjonktürel dalgalanmalar karşısında maliye politikasının yönü nasıl şekillenmektedir?” İkincisi ise: “Ülkelerin belirli bir büyüme trendi yakalamış olması konjonktürel dalgalanmalar karşısında maliye politikasının yönünü etkilemekte midir?” şeklindedir. Bu sorulardan ilki doğrusal dinamik panel veri yöntemiyle; İkincisi ise Kremer vd. (2013) tarafından geliştirilen dinamik panel eşik yaklaşımıyla test edilmiştir. Elde edilen bulgular kullanılan maliye politikası aracına göre etkinin farklılaştığını göstermektedir. Buna göre tespit edilen eşik değerlere bağlı olmaksızın; vergilerin konjonktür yanlısı, kamu tüketim harcamalarının ise konjonktür karşıtı olduğu desteklenmektedir. Aynı zamanda ekonomik şokların yaşandığı dönemleri ayrıştırmak için kullanılan kukla değişken de kamu tüketim harcamalarının konjonktür karşıtlığını güçlü bir şekilde desteklemektedir. Bu bulgular ekonomik büyüme düzeylerinden bağımsız olarak konjonktürün şiddetini azaltmada kamu harcamalarının daha etkin bir araç olarak kullanılabileceğini göstermektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Konjonktürel Dalgalanma
• Maliye Politikası
• Panel Veri Analizi

Direction of Fiscal Policy in Cyclical Fluctuations: OECD Example

Abstract

The main objective of this study is to determine the direction of fiscal policy in the face of cyclical fluctuations in 33 OECD countries for the period 2002-2021. In this framework, the study is based on two main research questions. The first one is ‘How is the direction of fiscal policy shaped in OECD countries in the face of cyclical fluctuations?’ The second one is: ‘Does the fact that countries have achieved a certain growth trend affect the direction of fiscal policy in the face of cyclical fluctuations?’. The first one of these questions is tested with the linear dynamic panel data method; the second one is tested with the dynamic panel threshold approach developed by Kremer et al. (2013). The findings show that the effect differs according to the fiscal policy instrument used. Accordingly, regardless of the threshold values determined, it is supported that taxes are pro-cyclical while public consumption expenditures are anti-cyclical. At the same time, the dummy variable used to differentiate the periods of economic shocks also strongly supports the countercyclicality of public consumption expenditures. These findings suggest that public expenditures can be used as a more effective tool in reducing the severity of business cycles, regardless of the level of economic growth.

Keywords

• Cyclical Fluctuations
• Fiscal Policy
• Fiscal Policy
• Panel data analysis

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