Üniversite Eğitimi Almaya Değer mi? Türkiye’de Asgari Ücret, İşgücü Arzı Kompozisyonu ve Beceri Temelli Ücret Farkı: 2004-2023 Dönemi

Öz

Bu makale, asgari ücret değişikliklerinin ve işgücündeki nitelikli iş gücünün oranının Türkiye’deki beceri temelli ücret farkı üzerindeki etkisini analiz etmektedir. 2004-2023 dönemi arasını kapsayan Hanehalkı İşgücü Anketi (HİA) mikro veri setleri kullanılmıştır. İlk olarak, becerili ve becerisi düşük gruplar arasındaki ücret farklılıkları, örneklem seçim hatasını dikkate alan Heckman tipi bir ücret denklemi ile analiz edilmiştir. Ardından, Blinder-Oaxaca ayrıştırma tekniği kullanılarak her yıl için beceri temelli ücret farkı hesaplanmıştır. Son olarak, mikro verilerden türetilen ücret farkının bağımlı değişken olarak kullanıldığı ekonometrik model oluşturulmuştur. Bağımsız değişkenler, işgücündeki nitelikli iş gücünün oranı (mikro verilerden hesaplanmış) ve enflasyona göre düzeltilmiş gerçek asgari ücret değişiklikleridir. Bu metodoloji, konuyu daha geniş bir makroekonomik perspektiften incelememize olanak tanımaktadır. Heckman ücret denklemlerinden elde edilen sonuçlar, becerili ve becerisi düşük çalışanlar arasındaki ücret belirleme faktörleri ve iş bulma olasılıkları üzerinde önemli farklılıklar olduğunu ortaya koymaktadır. Beceri temelli ücret farkını etkileyen genel faktörleri inceleyen ekonometrik analiz, asgari ücretteki %1’lik bir artışın ücret farkını %0,15 oranında azalttığını göstermektedir. Ayrıca, iş gücündeki nitelikli işçilerin oranındaki %1’lik bir artış, ücret farkını %0,26 oranında azaltmaktadır. Bu sonuçlar, eğitimle bağlantılı olan ücret avantajının giderek azaldığını ve bu durumun gelecekte üniversite diplomalarına olan talebin düşmesine yol açabileceğini göstermektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Asgari Ücret
• Heckman Örneklem Seçimi
• Blinder-Oaxaca Ayrıştırması
• Anket Verisi Analizi

Is University Education Worth It? Minimum Wage, Labor Supply Composition and Skill-Based Wage Gap in Türkiye: 2004-2023 Period

Abstract

This study analyzes the effect of minimum wage changes and the proportion of skilled labor in the employment on the skill-based wage gap in Türkiye. We utilize Household Labor Force Survey (HLFS) micro data sets, covering the period from 2004 to 2023. We first analyze wage disparities between skilled and unskilled groups through a Heckman-type wage equation that accounts for sample selection. Subsequently, we compute the skill-based wage gap for each year using the Blinder-Oaxaca method. Finally, we apply an econometric model where the wage gap, derived from the microdata, serves as the dependent variable. Explanatory variables are the proportion of skilled labor in employment (calculated from the microdata) and real minimum wage changes, adjusted for inflation by deflating the average annual nominal increase. This methodology allows us to explore the issue from a broader macroeconomic perspective. The results from the Heckman wage equations reveal significant differences in the effect of factors on wage determination and job-finding probabilities between skilled and unskilled employees. The econometric analysis, which examines the overall factors influencing the skill-based wage gap, reveals that a 1% rise in the minimum wage leads to a 0.15% decrease in the wage gap. Additionally, a 1% increase in the proportion of skilled workers in the workforce results in a 0.26% reduction in the wage gap. These results suggest that the wage advantage tied to education is gradually decreasing, potentially leading to a future drop in the demand for university degrees.

Keywords

• Minimum Wage
• Heckman Sample Selection
• Blinder-Oaxaca Decomposition
• Survey Data Analysis

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