Savunma Harcamalarının Ekonomik Büyüme Üzerindeki Etkileri: Türkiye Örneği

Öz

Bu çalışmada 1990-2023 yılları arası savunma harcamalarının (SH) ekonomik büyüme (EB) üzerine etkileri incelemektedir. SH’nin EB üzerine etkileri araştırıldığı modellerde EB’nin belirleyicileri kontrol değişken olarak sıklıkla kullanılmaktadır. Bu nedenle çalışmada kullanılan modele Dünya Belirsizlik Endeksi (WUI) dahil edilmiştir. Böylece çalışma literatüre katkı sağlamaktadır. Öte yandan, Türkiye'de son yıllarda savunma sanayinde yaşanan gelişmeler dikkat çekicidir. Dolayısıyla savunma harcamalarının ekonomik ve politik etkileri bu çalışmanın hazırlanmasını teşvik etmiştir. Bu çalışmada, değişkenler arasındaki eşbütünleşik ilişkiyi belirlemek için AARDL yöntemi ve devamında uzun dönemli bulguları elde etmek için hata düzeltme modeli kullanılmıştır. Elde edilen bulgulara göre, sabit sermaye yatırımları hem kısa hem de uzun dönemde EB’yi pozitif yönde etkilemektedir. Dış ticaret açıkları EB’yi uzun dönemde olumlu etkilerken, kısa dönemde olumsuz etkilemektedir. Dünya belirsizlik endeksi uzun dönemde EB üzerinde negatif bir etkiye sahipken, kısa dönemde değişkenler arasında herhangi bir ilişki bulunmamaktadır. Son olarak, SH’nin hem kısa hem de uzun dönemde EB üzerinde pozitif bir etkiye sahip olduğu sonucuna varılmıştır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Savunma Harcamaları
• Ekonomik Büyüme
• Ekonomi Politikaları
• Zaman Serisi Analizi

The Effects of Defence Expenditures on Economic Growth: A Case Study on Turkey

Abstract

This study examines the effects of defence expenditures (DE) on economic growth (EG) between 1990 and 2023. In models where the effects of defence expenditures on economic growth are investigated, the determinants of economic growth are frequently used as control variables. For this reason, the World Uncertainty Index (WUI) is included in the model used in the study. Thus, the study contributes to the literature. On the other hand, the developments in the defence industry in Türkiye in recent years are remarkable. Therefore, the economic and political effects of DE encouraged the preparation of this study. In this study, the AARDL method is used to determine the cointegrated relationship between variables, and then the error correction model is used to obtain long-run findings. According to the findings, fixed capital investments positively affect EG in both the short and long run. While foreign trade deficits affect EG positively in the long run, they affect it negatively in the short run. While the world uncertainty index has a negative effect on EG in the long run, there is no relationship between the variables in the short run. Finally, it is concluded that DE has a positive effect on EG in both the short and long run.

Keywords

• Defence Expenditures
• Economic Growth
• Economic Policies
• Time Series Analysis

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