To Trust or Not to Trust: A Cross-National Study of Trust and Leadership Access in Sports Labour Markets

Abstract

This paper investigates the relationship between societal trust and the age at which individuals are appointed to managerial positions in association football. Using a comprehensive dataset of 35,037 football manager appointments across 46 countries from all continents between 1900 and 2024, this study examined whether cultural differences in trust levels explain the variation in career advancement patterns observed globally. Trust has been measured using the Global Preferences Survey (GPS), which provides experimentally validated trust measures across countries. The analysis revealed a negative relationship between societal trust and appointment age: a one-unit increase in trust is associated with leaders being appointed 1.10 years younger on average. This effect persists after controlling for economic development indicators, institutional quality measures, and other cultural preferences. While younger appointees have longer tenures, there is no relationship between societal trust levels and tenure duration. These findings suggest that trust serves as an important cultural foundation that enables societies to identify, develop, and promote young talent more effectively. The results have implications for understanding cross-national differences in sports labour market dynamics, human capital allocation, and organisational practices.

Keywords

• Trust
• Leadership Selection
• Labour Markets
• Cultural Economics
• Human Capital

Güvenmek ya da Güvenmemek: Spor Sektöründe Güven ve Liderlik Pozisyonlarına Erişim Üzerine 46 Ülkeden Bulgular

Öz

Bu makale, toplumsal güven ile bireylerin futboldaki liderlik pozisyonlarına atanma yaşları arasındaki ilişkiyi incelemektedir. 46 ülkeden 1900’den 2024’e kadar 35.037 futbol teknik direktörü atamasını içeren bir veri seti kullanarak, güven düzeylerindeki farklılıkların küresel olarak gözlemlenen kariyerlerdeki değişimi açıklayıp açıklamadığı araştırılmıştır. Güven, deneysel olarak doğrulanmış Küresel Tercihler Anketi (GPS) kullanılarak ölçülmüştür. Analiz, toplumsal güven ile atanma yaşı arasında negatif bir ilişki olduğunu ortaya koymaktadır. Güvendeki bir birimlik artış, liderlerin ortalama 1,10 yıl daha genç yaşta atanmasıyla ilişkilidir. Bu etki, ekonomik kalkınma göstergeleri, kurumsal kalite ölçütleri ve diğer kültürel tercihler kontrol edildikten sonra da devam etmektedir. Genç yaşta atananlar daha uzun görev sürelerine sahip olsalar da toplumsal güven düzeyleri ile görev süreleri arasında bir ilişki bulunmamaktadır. Bu bulgular, güvenin toplumların genç yetenekleri daha etkin bir şekilde belirlemesini, geliştirmesini ve terfi ettirmesini sağlayan önemli bir kültürel temel olarak hizmet ettiğini göstermektedir. Sonuçlar, spor işgücü piyasası dinamikleri, beşeri sermaye tahsisi ve örgütsel uygulamalardaki ülkeler arası farklılıkları anlamak için çıkarımlar sunmaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Güven
• Liderlik Seçimi
• İşgücü Piyasaları
• Kültürel Ekonomi
• Beşeri Sermaye

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