Demografik Göstergelerin Enflasyonla İlişkisi: Avrupa Birliği Örneği

Year 2021, , 879 - 901, 18.09.2021

Emin Ahmet Kaplan , Neslihan Burgaz

https://doi.org/10.25295/fsecon.945256

Abstract

AB ülkelerinin “baby boom” sonrası kadın başına düşen çocuk sayısı hızla azalmış ve günümüzde bu sayı nüfusun yenilenme düzeyinin altında seyretmiştir. Kadın başına çocuk sayısının azalması nedeniyle genç bağımlı nüfus ve çalışma çağındaki nüfus yapısı da etkilenmiştir. Bu süre zarfında bilim, teknoloji ve sağlık sistemindeki gelişmeler neticesinde ölüm oranları azalmış ve yaşlı bağımlı nüfus artmıştır. Doğum ve ölüm oranlarındaki azalışın demografik göstergelere yansıması toplam talep ve toplam arz aracılığıyla enflasyonu etkilemektedir.
Bu kapsamda çalışmada AB ülkelerinde 1996-2020 dönemine ait demografik göstergelerin enflasyon üzerinde etkisini test etmek için panel veri analizi yapılmıştır. Bağımlı değişken olarak enflasyon, bağımsız değişken olarak ise demografik göstergeler, GSYH ve işsizlik kullanılmıştır. Analiz sonucuna göre yaşlı bağımlı nüfusun, ekonomik büyümenin, işsizliğin, çalışma çağındaki nüfusun enflasyonu düşürdüğü, genç bağımlı nüfusun ve nüfus artış hızındaki artışın ise enflasyonu yükselttiği tespit edilmiştir.

Keywords

Demografik Değişim, Avrupa Birliği, Enflasyon, Panel Veri Analizi

The Relationship Between Demographic Indicators and Inflation: The Example of the European Union

Abstract

After the “baby boom” of EU countries, the number of children per woman decreased rapidly and today this number is below the replacement level of the population. Due to the decrease in the number of children per woman, the structure of the young dependent population and the working age population has also been affected. During this period, as a result of developments in science, technology and health system, mortality rates decreased and the elderly dependent population increased. The reflection of the decrease in birth and death rates on demographic indicators affects inflation through aggregate demand and aggregate supply.
In this context, panel data analysis was conducted to test the effect of demographic indicators for the period 1996-2020 on inflation in EU countries. Inflation was used as the dependent variable and demographic indicators, GDP and unemployment were used as the independent variables. According to the results of the analysis, it has been determined that the elderly dependent population, economic growth, unemployment, and the working age population reduce inflation, while the young dependent population and the increase in the population growth rate increase inflation.

Keywords

Demographic Change, European Union, Inflation, Panel Data Analysis

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