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Determinants of Economic Growth: The Case of Turkey Under Structural Breaks

Year 2019, Volume: 3 Issue: 1, 202 - 227, 31.01.2019
https://doi.org/10.25295/fsecon.2019.01.008

Abstract

In this study, the impacts of financial development, inflation, financial and trade openness on Turkey’s economic growth are examined over the period 1974-2017. The study, in which Fourier-Shin (FSHIN) cointegration test is performed, detects the existence of cointegrated series. According to the results of the fully modified ordinary least squares (FMOLS) and dynamic ordinary least squares (DOLS) methods based on the estimation of long-term coefficients, it is determined that financial development positively affects financial and trade openness as well as economic growth, whereas inflation has negative impacts.

References

  • Agenor, P.R., & Montiel, P.J. (2008). Development Macroeconomics. UK: Princeton University Press.
  • Arrow, K. J. (1962). The Economic Implications of Learning by Doing. The Review of Economic Studies, 29(3), 155-173.
  • Aydoğan, E.T., Uslu, Ç.L. & Ketenci, N. (2017). Determinants of Economic Growth in Emerging Countries Under Structural Breaks Consideration. Sosyoekonomi, 25(33), 37-58.
  • Baliamoune-Lutz, M. (2009). Institutions, Trade, and Social Cohesion in Fragile States: Implications for Policy Conditionality and Aid Allocation. Journal of Policy Modeling, 31(6), 877-890.
  • Barro, R. J. (1990). Government Spending in a Simple Model of Endogeneous Growth. Journal of Political Economy, 98(5, Part 2), 103-125.
  • Barro, R. J. (1999). Determinants of Economic Growth: Implications of the Global Evidence for Chile. Cuadernos de Economía, 443-478.
  • Barro, R.J. & Salai-Martin, X. (2004). Economic Growth. USA: The MIT Press.
  • Berber, M. (2017). İktisadi Büyüme ve Kalkınma. Trabzon: Celepler Matbaacılık Yayın ve Dağıtım.
  • Bocutoğlu, E. (2015). Makro İktisat. Trabzon: Murathan Yayınevi.
  • Chirwa, T. G., & Odhiambo, N. M. (2016). Macroeconomic Determinants of Economic Growth: A Review of International Literature. South East European Journal of Economics and Business, 11(2), 33-47.
  • Crosby, M. (2004). Exchange Rate Volatility and Macroeconomic Performance in Hong Kong. Review of Development Economics, 8(4), 606-623.
  • Domar, E. D. (1947). Expansion and Employment. The American Economic Review, 37(1), 34-55.
  • Ehrlich, I. (1990). The Problem of Development: Introduction. Journal of Political Economy, 98(5, Part 2), 1-11.
  • Fetahi-Vehapi, M., Sadiku, L., & Petkovski, M. (2015). Empirical Analysis of the Effects of Trade Openness on Economic Growth: An Evidence for South East European Countries. Procedia Economics and Finance, 19, 17-26.
  • Gallup, J. L., Sachs, J. D., & Mellinger, A. D. (1999). Geography and Economic Development. International Regional Science Review, 22(2), 179-232.
  • Göçer, İ. (2013). Ekonomik Büyümenin Belirleyicileri: Sınır Testi Yaklaşımı. Siyaset, Ekonomi ve Yönetim Araştırmaları Dergisi, 1(1), 75-91.
  • Harrod, R. F. (1939). An Essay in Dynamic Theory. The Economic Journal, 49(193), 14-33.
  • Ismihan, M., Metin-Ozcan, K., & Tansel, A. (2005). The Role of Macroeconomic Instability in Public and Private Capital Accumulation and Growth: The Case of Turkey 1963–1999. Applied Economics, 37(2), 239-251.
  • Kazgan, G. (2009). İktisadi Düşünce veya Politik İktisadın Evrimi. İstanbul: Remzi Kitabevi.
  • Kibritçioğlu, A. (1998). İktisadi Büyümenin Belirleyicileri ve Yeni Büyüme Modellerinde Beşeri Sermayenin Yeri. AÜ Siyasal Bilgiler Fakültesi Dergisi, 53(1-4), 207-230.
  • Knight, M., Loayza, N., & Villanueva, D. (1993). Testing the Neoclassical Theory of Economic Growth: A Panel Data Approach. IMF Staff Papers, 40(3), 512-541.
  • Korkmaz, T., Çevik, E.İ., & Birkan, E. (2010). Finansal Dışa Açıklığın Ekonomik Büyüme ve Finansal Krizler Üzerindeki Etkisi: Türkiye Örneği. Journal of Yasar University, 17(5), 2821-2831.
  • Kwan, A. C., Wu, Y., & Zhang, J. (1998). An Exogeneity Analysis of Financial Deepening and Economic Growth: Evidence from Hong Kong, South Korea and Taiwan. Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, 7(3), 339-354.
  • Lucas, R.E. (1988). On the Mechanics of Economic Development. Journal of Monetary Economics, 22(1), 3-42.
  • Mehmood, B., & Shahid, A. (2014). Aviation Demand and Economic Growth in the Czech Republic: Cointegration Estimation and Causality Analysis. Statistika: Statistics and Economy Journal, 94(1), 54-63.
  • Mercan, M. (2014). Ekonomik Büyümenin Belirleyicileri ve 2008 Krizi: Orta Asya Ülkeleri ve Türkiye Ekonomisi İçin Panel Veri Analizi. Yönetim ve Ekonomi: Celal Bayar Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 21(1), 125-142.
  • Mougani, G. (2012). An Analysis of the Impact of Financial Integration on Economic Activity and Macroeconomic Volatility in Africa within the Financial Globalization Context. African Development Bank Working Paper, No: 144.
  • Özel, H. A. (2012). Ekonomik Büyümenin Teorik Temelleri. Çankırı Karatekin Üniversitesi İİBF Dergisi, 2(1), 63-72.
  • Özkan, F., & Tarı, R. (2011). Türkiye’de 2001 Yılı Sonrası Yasal VE Kurumsal Reformların Ekonomi Üzerindeki Etkisi. Zonguldak Karaelmas Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 7(14), 1-14.
  • Özsağır, A. (2008). Dünden Bugüne Büyümenin Dinamiği. KMU İİBFDergisi, 10(14), 1-16.
  • Parasız, İ (2003). Modern Büyüme Teorileri: Dinamik Makro Ekonomiye Giriş. Bursa: Ezgi Kitabevi Yayınları. Phillips, P. C., & Hansen, B. E. (1990). Statistical Inference in Instrumental Variables Regression with I (1) Processes. The Review of Economic Studies, 57(1), 99-125.Ramsey, F. P. (1928). A Mathemetical Theory of Saving. Economic Journal, 38(152), 543-559.
  • Rebelo, S. (1991). Long-run Policy Analysis and Long-run Growth. Journal of Political Economy, 99(3), 500-521.
  • Rodrik, D. (1999). Where Did All the Growth Go? External Shocks, Social Conflict, and Growth Collapses. Journal of Economic Growth, 4(4), 385-412.
  • Rodrik, D., Subramanian, A., & Trebbi, F. (2004). Institutions Rule: The Primacy of Institutions over Geography and Integration in Economic Development. Journal of Economic Growth, 9(2), 131-165.
  • Romer, P. M. (1990). Endogenous Technological Change. Journal of Political Economy, 98(5,Part 2), 71-102.
  • Romer, P. M. (1994). The Origins of Endogenous Growth. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 8(1), 3-22.
  • Sachs, J. D., & Warner, A. M. (1995). Natural Resource Abundance and Economic Growth. NBER Working Paper, No: w5398, 1-50.
  • Saikkonen, P. (1992). Estimation and Testing of Cointegrated Systems by an Autoregressive Approximation. Econometric Theory, 8(1), 1-27.
  • Savaş, V.F. (2007). İktisatın Tarihi. Ankara: Siyasal Kitabevi.
  • Sezer, S., & Abasız, T. (2016). Determinants of Economic Growth: An Application with Unbalanced Panel Analysis in OECD Countries. Süleyman Demirel Üniversitesi Vizyoner Dergisi, 7(16), 89-99.
  • Snowdon, B. & Vane, H. R. (2005). Modern Macroeconomics-Its Origins, Development, and Current State. UK: Edward Elgar.
  • Solow, R. M. (1956). A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 70(1), 65-94.
  • Stock, J. H., & Watson, M. W. (1993). A Simple Estimator of Cointegrating Vectors in Higher Order Integrated Systems. Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, 61(4), 783-820.
  • Şiriner, İ., & Doğru, Y. (2008). Türkiye’de Büyümenin Ekonomi Politiği: 1980 Sonrası Türkiye Ekonomisi Üzerine Bir İnceleme. 2. Baskı, Ankara: Dipnot Yayınevi.
  • Temple, J. (1999). The New Growth Evidence. Journal of Economic Literature, 37(1), 112-156.
  • Tsong, C.C., Lee, C.F., Tsai, L.J., & Hu, T.C. (2016). The Fourier Approximation and Testing for the Null of Cointegration. Empirical Economics, 51(3), 1085-1113.
  • Türedi, S., & Berber, M. (2010). Finansal Kalkınma, Ticari Açıklık ve Ekonomik Büyüme Arasındaki İlişki: Türkiye Üzerine Bir Analiz. Erciyes Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 302(35), 301-316.
  • Yapraklı, S. (2007). Ticari ve Finansal Dışa Açıklık ile Ekonomik Büyüme Arasındaki İlişki: Türkiye Üzerine Bir Uygulama. Ekonometri ve İstatistik e-Dergisi, (5), 67-89.
  • Yeldan, E. (2011). İktisadi Büyüme ve Bölüşüm Teorileri, 2. Baskı, Ankara: Efil Yayınevi.
  • Yılancı,V. (2017). Petrol Fiyatları ile Ekonomik Büyüme Arasındaki İlişkinin İncelenmesi: Fourier Yaklaşımı. Ekonometri ve İstatistik, 27, 51-67.
  • Yıldız, B., &Yıldız, G. (2018). Sağlık Harcamalarının Ekonomik Büyüme Üzerindeki Etkisi: Avrupa ve Merkez Asya Ülkeleri Örneği. Maliye Dergisi, 174, 203-218.
  • Yılmaz, Ö., & Akıncı, M. (2012). İktisadi Büyüme ve Makroekonomik Belirleyicileri. Ankara: Nobel Yayınları.
Year 2019, Volume: 3 Issue: 1, 202 - 227, 31.01.2019
https://doi.org/10.25295/fsecon.2019.01.008

Abstract

References

  • Agenor, P.R., & Montiel, P.J. (2008). Development Macroeconomics. UK: Princeton University Press.
  • Arrow, K. J. (1962). The Economic Implications of Learning by Doing. The Review of Economic Studies, 29(3), 155-173.
  • Aydoğan, E.T., Uslu, Ç.L. & Ketenci, N. (2017). Determinants of Economic Growth in Emerging Countries Under Structural Breaks Consideration. Sosyoekonomi, 25(33), 37-58.
  • Baliamoune-Lutz, M. (2009). Institutions, Trade, and Social Cohesion in Fragile States: Implications for Policy Conditionality and Aid Allocation. Journal of Policy Modeling, 31(6), 877-890.
  • Barro, R. J. (1990). Government Spending in a Simple Model of Endogeneous Growth. Journal of Political Economy, 98(5, Part 2), 103-125.
  • Barro, R. J. (1999). Determinants of Economic Growth: Implications of the Global Evidence for Chile. Cuadernos de Economía, 443-478.
  • Barro, R.J. & Salai-Martin, X. (2004). Economic Growth. USA: The MIT Press.
  • Berber, M. (2017). İktisadi Büyüme ve Kalkınma. Trabzon: Celepler Matbaacılık Yayın ve Dağıtım.
  • Bocutoğlu, E. (2015). Makro İktisat. Trabzon: Murathan Yayınevi.
  • Chirwa, T. G., & Odhiambo, N. M. (2016). Macroeconomic Determinants of Economic Growth: A Review of International Literature. South East European Journal of Economics and Business, 11(2), 33-47.
  • Crosby, M. (2004). Exchange Rate Volatility and Macroeconomic Performance in Hong Kong. Review of Development Economics, 8(4), 606-623.
  • Domar, E. D. (1947). Expansion and Employment. The American Economic Review, 37(1), 34-55.
  • Ehrlich, I. (1990). The Problem of Development: Introduction. Journal of Political Economy, 98(5, Part 2), 1-11.
  • Fetahi-Vehapi, M., Sadiku, L., & Petkovski, M. (2015). Empirical Analysis of the Effects of Trade Openness on Economic Growth: An Evidence for South East European Countries. Procedia Economics and Finance, 19, 17-26.
  • Gallup, J. L., Sachs, J. D., & Mellinger, A. D. (1999). Geography and Economic Development. International Regional Science Review, 22(2), 179-232.
  • Göçer, İ. (2013). Ekonomik Büyümenin Belirleyicileri: Sınır Testi Yaklaşımı. Siyaset, Ekonomi ve Yönetim Araştırmaları Dergisi, 1(1), 75-91.
  • Harrod, R. F. (1939). An Essay in Dynamic Theory. The Economic Journal, 49(193), 14-33.
  • Ismihan, M., Metin-Ozcan, K., & Tansel, A. (2005). The Role of Macroeconomic Instability in Public and Private Capital Accumulation and Growth: The Case of Turkey 1963–1999. Applied Economics, 37(2), 239-251.
  • Kazgan, G. (2009). İktisadi Düşünce veya Politik İktisadın Evrimi. İstanbul: Remzi Kitabevi.
  • Kibritçioğlu, A. (1998). İktisadi Büyümenin Belirleyicileri ve Yeni Büyüme Modellerinde Beşeri Sermayenin Yeri. AÜ Siyasal Bilgiler Fakültesi Dergisi, 53(1-4), 207-230.
  • Knight, M., Loayza, N., & Villanueva, D. (1993). Testing the Neoclassical Theory of Economic Growth: A Panel Data Approach. IMF Staff Papers, 40(3), 512-541.
  • Korkmaz, T., Çevik, E.İ., & Birkan, E. (2010). Finansal Dışa Açıklığın Ekonomik Büyüme ve Finansal Krizler Üzerindeki Etkisi: Türkiye Örneği. Journal of Yasar University, 17(5), 2821-2831.
  • Kwan, A. C., Wu, Y., & Zhang, J. (1998). An Exogeneity Analysis of Financial Deepening and Economic Growth: Evidence from Hong Kong, South Korea and Taiwan. Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, 7(3), 339-354.
  • Lucas, R.E. (1988). On the Mechanics of Economic Development. Journal of Monetary Economics, 22(1), 3-42.
  • Mehmood, B., & Shahid, A. (2014). Aviation Demand and Economic Growth in the Czech Republic: Cointegration Estimation and Causality Analysis. Statistika: Statistics and Economy Journal, 94(1), 54-63.
  • Mercan, M. (2014). Ekonomik Büyümenin Belirleyicileri ve 2008 Krizi: Orta Asya Ülkeleri ve Türkiye Ekonomisi İçin Panel Veri Analizi. Yönetim ve Ekonomi: Celal Bayar Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 21(1), 125-142.
  • Mougani, G. (2012). An Analysis of the Impact of Financial Integration on Economic Activity and Macroeconomic Volatility in Africa within the Financial Globalization Context. African Development Bank Working Paper, No: 144.
  • Özel, H. A. (2012). Ekonomik Büyümenin Teorik Temelleri. Çankırı Karatekin Üniversitesi İİBF Dergisi, 2(1), 63-72.
  • Özkan, F., & Tarı, R. (2011). Türkiye’de 2001 Yılı Sonrası Yasal VE Kurumsal Reformların Ekonomi Üzerindeki Etkisi. Zonguldak Karaelmas Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 7(14), 1-14.
  • Özsağır, A. (2008). Dünden Bugüne Büyümenin Dinamiği. KMU İİBFDergisi, 10(14), 1-16.
  • Parasız, İ (2003). Modern Büyüme Teorileri: Dinamik Makro Ekonomiye Giriş. Bursa: Ezgi Kitabevi Yayınları. Phillips, P. C., & Hansen, B. E. (1990). Statistical Inference in Instrumental Variables Regression with I (1) Processes. The Review of Economic Studies, 57(1), 99-125.Ramsey, F. P. (1928). A Mathemetical Theory of Saving. Economic Journal, 38(152), 543-559.
  • Rebelo, S. (1991). Long-run Policy Analysis and Long-run Growth. Journal of Political Economy, 99(3), 500-521.
  • Rodrik, D. (1999). Where Did All the Growth Go? External Shocks, Social Conflict, and Growth Collapses. Journal of Economic Growth, 4(4), 385-412.
  • Rodrik, D., Subramanian, A., & Trebbi, F. (2004). Institutions Rule: The Primacy of Institutions over Geography and Integration in Economic Development. Journal of Economic Growth, 9(2), 131-165.
  • Romer, P. M. (1990). Endogenous Technological Change. Journal of Political Economy, 98(5,Part 2), 71-102.
  • Romer, P. M. (1994). The Origins of Endogenous Growth. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 8(1), 3-22.
  • Sachs, J. D., & Warner, A. M. (1995). Natural Resource Abundance and Economic Growth. NBER Working Paper, No: w5398, 1-50.
  • Saikkonen, P. (1992). Estimation and Testing of Cointegrated Systems by an Autoregressive Approximation. Econometric Theory, 8(1), 1-27.
  • Savaş, V.F. (2007). İktisatın Tarihi. Ankara: Siyasal Kitabevi.
  • Sezer, S., & Abasız, T. (2016). Determinants of Economic Growth: An Application with Unbalanced Panel Analysis in OECD Countries. Süleyman Demirel Üniversitesi Vizyoner Dergisi, 7(16), 89-99.
  • Snowdon, B. & Vane, H. R. (2005). Modern Macroeconomics-Its Origins, Development, and Current State. UK: Edward Elgar.
  • Solow, R. M. (1956). A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 70(1), 65-94.
  • Stock, J. H., & Watson, M. W. (1993). A Simple Estimator of Cointegrating Vectors in Higher Order Integrated Systems. Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, 61(4), 783-820.
  • Şiriner, İ., & Doğru, Y. (2008). Türkiye’de Büyümenin Ekonomi Politiği: 1980 Sonrası Türkiye Ekonomisi Üzerine Bir İnceleme. 2. Baskı, Ankara: Dipnot Yayınevi.
  • Temple, J. (1999). The New Growth Evidence. Journal of Economic Literature, 37(1), 112-156.
  • Tsong, C.C., Lee, C.F., Tsai, L.J., & Hu, T.C. (2016). The Fourier Approximation and Testing for the Null of Cointegration. Empirical Economics, 51(3), 1085-1113.
  • Türedi, S., & Berber, M. (2010). Finansal Kalkınma, Ticari Açıklık ve Ekonomik Büyüme Arasındaki İlişki: Türkiye Üzerine Bir Analiz. Erciyes Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 302(35), 301-316.
  • Yapraklı, S. (2007). Ticari ve Finansal Dışa Açıklık ile Ekonomik Büyüme Arasındaki İlişki: Türkiye Üzerine Bir Uygulama. Ekonometri ve İstatistik e-Dergisi, (5), 67-89.
  • Yeldan, E. (2011). İktisadi Büyüme ve Bölüşüm Teorileri, 2. Baskı, Ankara: Efil Yayınevi.
  • Yılancı,V. (2017). Petrol Fiyatları ile Ekonomik Büyüme Arasındaki İlişkinin İncelenmesi: Fourier Yaklaşımı. Ekonometri ve İstatistik, 27, 51-67.
  • Yıldız, B., &Yıldız, G. (2018). Sağlık Harcamalarının Ekonomik Büyüme Üzerindeki Etkisi: Avrupa ve Merkez Asya Ülkeleri Örneği. Maliye Dergisi, 174, 203-218.
  • Yılmaz, Ö., & Akıncı, M. (2012). İktisadi Büyüme ve Makroekonomik Belirleyicileri. Ankara: Nobel Yayınları.
There are 52 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language English
Journal Section Articles
Authors

Fındık Özlem Alper 0000-0002-7829-8551

Publication Date January 31, 2019
Published in Issue Year 2019 Volume: 3 Issue: 1

Cite

APA Alper, F. Ö. (2019). Determinants of Economic Growth: The Case of Turkey Under Structural Breaks. Fiscaoeconomia, 3(1), 202-227. https://doi.org/10.25295/fsecon.2019.01.008

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