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A Provincial Youth Population Analysis In Terms of Time And Space: The Case of Turkey

Year 2020, Volume: 4 Issue: 3, 613 - 627, 20.09.2020
https://doi.org/10.25295/fsecon.762163

Abstract

The youth age period (0-14 age), which is one of the most important periods of human life, is also an important demographic indicator for countries. In this study, youth population, twenty five percent of the total population in Turkey, is examined from the perspective of time and space on provincial level. The traditional coefficient of variation (CV) approach was used to analyze the development of the young population parameter over time. Behind, Moran I index value, which has become a traditional method, has been used to measure the distribution of the young population parameter in space. According to the CV results, the youth age population diversity increases slightly between the provinces from 2007 to 2018. In the 0-4 age group shows high spatial pattern along the southeastern and eastern provinces. High spatial pattern is observed in 5-9 groups of central and northeast provinces. 0-4 and 5-9 age groups of these two regions are almost displaced by spatial pattern. The variety between the provinces is lower in the 10-14 age group. All of these findings shows that, in spatial terms, the young population in Turkey reveals a rapid change especially to 0-4 and 5-9 age groups. Population changes are often the subject of long-term analysis. This study shows that the population structure of countries can transform in the short term. In fact, the change in time and space dimensions of Turkey's youth population structure has been realized in a short time. This finding could lead policymakers on shorter term demographic solutions.

Thanks

We appreciate Prof. Murat Ali Dulupçu for the guidance and support on the study design.

References

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  • Assaad, R., and Roudi-Fahimi, F. (2007). Youth in the Middle Eastand North Africa: Demographic Opportunity or Challenge?. Washington, DC: Population Reference Bureau.
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  • Anselin, L. (1988), Spatial Econometrics: Methods and Models. Studies in Operational Regional Science. Kluwer Academic Publishers.
  • Anselin, L. (1996), “The Moran Scatterplot as an ESDA Tool to Assess Local Instability in Spatial”. Spatial Analytical, 4, 111.
  • Baş, H., and Çetin, B. I. (2017), “Bir Sosyal Bilimler Belediyecilik Uygulaması Olarak İstanbul Esenler Belediyesi Gençlik Merkezi Örneği”. Abant İzzet Baysal Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 17(1), 149-175.
  • Baş, H. (2017), “Türkiye'de Genç Nüfus: Sorunlar ve Politikalar”. Journal of Suleyman Demirel University Institute of Social Sciences, 27(2).
  • Boots, B. N. (1977), “Contact Number Properties in the Study of Cellular Networks”. Geographical Analysis, 9(4), 379-387.
  • Casetti, E. (1977), “Economic Growth and The Population Explosion: Simulation Experiments Using a Growth Model With Population Endogenous”. The Journal of Development Studies, 13(3), 238-261.
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  • Cliff, A. D., and Ord, J. K. (1981), Spatial Processes: Models and Applications. Taylor and Francis.
  • Çetin, D. (2012), Exports and Clusters: A Spatial Econometric Analysis on Ankara and Istanbul OIZs. Orta Doğu Teknik Üniversitesi, Ankara.
  • Epperson, B. K., and Li, T. (1996), “Measurement of Genetic Structure With in Populations Using Moran's Spatial Autocorrelation Statistics”. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 93(19), 10528-10532.
  • Espenshade, T. J., Bouvier, L. F., and Arthur, W. B. (1982), “Immigration and the Stable Population Model”. Demography, 19(1), 125-133.
  • Filiztekin, A., and Çelik, M. A. (2010), “Türkiye’de Bölgesel Gelir Eşitsizliği (Regional Income Inequality in Turkey)”. Megaron, 5(3), 116-127.
  • Fischer, M. M., and Getis, A. (Eds.). (2009), Handbook of applied Spatial Analysis: Software Tools, Methods and Applications. Springer Science and Business Media.
  • Ercan, H. (2007). Youth employment in Turkey. International Labour Office.
  • Kelejian, H. H., and Prucha, I. R. (2001), “On the Asymptotic Distribution of The Moran I Test Statistic with Applications”. Journal of Econometrics, 104(2), 219-257.
  • Koenig, W. D. (2002), “Global Patterns of Environmental Synchrony and The Moran Effect”. Ecography, 25(3), 283-288.
  • Lutz, W., Sanderson, W., and Scherbov, S. (2008), “The Coming Acceleration of Global Population Ageing”. Nature, 451(7179), 716–719.
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  • Moran, P. A. P. (1948), “The Interpretation of Statistical Maps”. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B (Methodological), 10(2), 243–251.
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  • Reed, G. F., Lynn, F., and Meade, B. D. (2002), “Use of Coefficient of Variation in Assessing Variability of Quantitative Assays”. Clin. Diagn. Lab. Immunol, 9(6), 1235-1239.
  • Sazak, Ş. (2016), “Türkiye’de Bölgelere Göre Nüfusun Yaş Gruplarına Dağılımı”. Trakya Üniversitesi Fen Bilimleri Dergisi, 5(2), 187-198.
  • Shortridge, A. (2007), “Practical Limits of Moran’s Autocorrelation Index for Raster Class Maps”. Computers, Environment and Urban Systems, 31(3), 362-371.
  • Şahin, S. (2018), Geçmiş, Günümüz ve Gelecekte Nüfus Gerçeği. Pegem Atıf İndeksi, 001-216.
  • Tobler, W. R. (1970), “A Computer Movie Simulating Urban Growth in The Detroit Region”. Economic Geography, 46(1), 234-240.
  • TUIK, (2018), Adrese Dayalı Nüfus Kayıt Sistemi. Metaveri. http://tuik.gov.tr/PreTablo.do?alt_id=1059
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  • TUIK, (2019), Analitik Çerçeve, Kapsam, Tanımlar ve Sınıflandırmalar. http://www.tuik.gov.tr/PreTablo.do?alt_id=1047
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  • Tung, R. L. (1984), “Strategic Management of Human Resources In The Multinational Enterprise”. Human Resource Management, 23(2), 129-143.
  • Turner, M. G., Gardner, R. H., and O'neill, R. V. (2001). Landscape Ecology in Theoryand Practice (Vol. 401). New York: Springer.
  • UNCTAD, (2018), E-Handbook of Statistics. United Nations Conference on Tradeand Development.
  • UNITED NATIONS Population Division, (2001), World Populations Prospects. The 2000 Revision, Highlights, Population Division Department of Economicand Social Affairs United Nations, New York.
  • US CENSUS, (2011), Age and Sex Composition: 2010. C2010BR-03, US Department of Commerce, Economics and Statistics Administration, US Census Bureau.
  • Stoletov, V.N., Kon, İ.S., Zamaşin, Y.A., Blyahman, L.S., Poşatayev, V.V., & Volkov, G.N. (1979), Toplum ve Gençlik. Çeviren: Şükrü Keleş, Konuk Yayınları, İstanbul.
  • Wang, X., Chen, Y., Liu, B., Shen, Y., and Sun, H. (2013), “A Total Factor Productivity Measure for The Construction Industry and Analysis of Its Spatial Difference: A Case Study In China”. Construction Management and Economics, 31(10), 1059–1071.
  • Ward, M. D., and Gleditsch, K. S. (2018), Spatial Regression Models (Vol. 155). Sage Publications.
Year 2020, Volume: 4 Issue: 3, 613 - 627, 20.09.2020
https://doi.org/10.25295/fsecon.762163

Abstract

References

  • Abdi, H. (2010), “Coefficient of Variation”. Encyclopedia of Research Design, 1, 169-171.
  • Assaad, R., and Roudi-Fahimi, F. (2007). Youth in the Middle Eastand North Africa: Demographic Opportunity or Challenge?. Washington, DC: Population Reference Bureau.
  • Anselin, L. (1980), “Estimation Methods for Spatial Autoregressive Structures”. Estimation Methods for Spatial Autoregressive Structures, 8.
  • Anselin, L. (1988), Spatial Econometrics: Methods and Models. Studies in Operational Regional Science. Kluwer Academic Publishers.
  • Anselin, L. (1996), “The Moran Scatterplot as an ESDA Tool to Assess Local Instability in Spatial”. Spatial Analytical, 4, 111.
  • Baş, H., and Çetin, B. I. (2017), “Bir Sosyal Bilimler Belediyecilik Uygulaması Olarak İstanbul Esenler Belediyesi Gençlik Merkezi Örneği”. Abant İzzet Baysal Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 17(1), 149-175.
  • Baş, H. (2017), “Türkiye'de Genç Nüfus: Sorunlar ve Politikalar”. Journal of Suleyman Demirel University Institute of Social Sciences, 27(2).
  • Boots, B. N. (1977), “Contact Number Properties in the Study of Cellular Networks”. Geographical Analysis, 9(4), 379-387.
  • Casetti, E. (1977), “Economic Growth and The Population Explosion: Simulation Experiments Using a Growth Model With Population Endogenous”. The Journal of Development Studies, 13(3), 238-261.
  • Chen, Y., Bouferguene, A., Shen, Y., and Al-Hussein, M. (2019). “Difference Analysis of Regional Population Ageing From Temporal and Spatial Perspectives: A Case Study in China”. Regional Studies, 53(6), 849-860.
  • Cliff, A. D., and Ord, J. K. (1981), Spatial Processes: Models and Applications. Taylor and Francis.
  • Çetin, D. (2012), Exports and Clusters: A Spatial Econometric Analysis on Ankara and Istanbul OIZs. Orta Doğu Teknik Üniversitesi, Ankara.
  • Epperson, B. K., and Li, T. (1996), “Measurement of Genetic Structure With in Populations Using Moran's Spatial Autocorrelation Statistics”. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 93(19), 10528-10532.
  • Espenshade, T. J., Bouvier, L. F., and Arthur, W. B. (1982), “Immigration and the Stable Population Model”. Demography, 19(1), 125-133.
  • Filiztekin, A., and Çelik, M. A. (2010), “Türkiye’de Bölgesel Gelir Eşitsizliği (Regional Income Inequality in Turkey)”. Megaron, 5(3), 116-127.
  • Fischer, M. M., and Getis, A. (Eds.). (2009), Handbook of applied Spatial Analysis: Software Tools, Methods and Applications. Springer Science and Business Media.
  • Ercan, H. (2007). Youth employment in Turkey. International Labour Office.
  • Kelejian, H. H., and Prucha, I. R. (2001), “On the Asymptotic Distribution of The Moran I Test Statistic with Applications”. Journal of Econometrics, 104(2), 219-257.
  • Koenig, W. D. (2002), “Global Patterns of Environmental Synchrony and The Moran Effect”. Ecography, 25(3), 283-288.
  • Lutz, W., Sanderson, W., and Scherbov, S. (2008), “The Coming Acceleration of Global Population Ageing”. Nature, 451(7179), 716–719.
  • Lopez, R. S. (1961). The Crossroads With in The Wall.
  • Macbeth, H., and Collinson, P. (ed). (2002), Human Population Dynamics: Cross-Disciplinary Perspectives (Vol. 14). Cambridge University Press.
  • Mandıracıoğlu, A. (2010), “Dünyada ve Türkiye'de Yaşlıların Demografik Özellikleri”. Ege Tıp Dergisi, 49.
  • Moran, P. A. P. (1948), “The Interpretation of Statistical Maps”. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B (Methodological), 10(2), 243–251.
  • OECD, (2019), Young Population (İndicator).doi: 10.1787/3d774f19-en (Accessed on 19 June 2019)
  • Ranta, E., Kaitala, V., Lindström, J., and Helle, E. (1997), “The Moran Effect and Synchrony In Population Dynamics”. Oikos, 136-142.
  • Reed, G. F., Lynn, F., and Meade, B. D. (2002), “Use of Coefficient of Variation in Assessing Variability of Quantitative Assays”. Clin. Diagn. Lab. Immunol, 9(6), 1235-1239.
  • Sazak, Ş. (2016), “Türkiye’de Bölgelere Göre Nüfusun Yaş Gruplarına Dağılımı”. Trakya Üniversitesi Fen Bilimleri Dergisi, 5(2), 187-198.
  • Shortridge, A. (2007), “Practical Limits of Moran’s Autocorrelation Index for Raster Class Maps”. Computers, Environment and Urban Systems, 31(3), 362-371.
  • Şahin, S. (2018), Geçmiş, Günümüz ve Gelecekte Nüfus Gerçeği. Pegem Atıf İndeksi, 001-216.
  • Tobler, W. R. (1970), “A Computer Movie Simulating Urban Growth in The Detroit Region”. Economic Geography, 46(1), 234-240.
  • TUIK, (2018), Adrese Dayalı Nüfus Kayıt Sistemi. Metaveri. http://tuik.gov.tr/PreTablo.do?alt_id=1059
  • TUIK, (2019), ABPRS statistics. metaveri. http://tuik.gov.tr/PreTablo.do?alt_id=1059
  • TUIK, (2019), Adrese Dayalı Nüfus Kayıt Sistemi. Metaveri. http://tuik.gov.tr/PreTablo.do?alt_id=1059
  • TUIK, (2019), Analitik Çerçeve, Kapsam, Tanımlar ve Sınıflandırmalar. http://www.tuik.gov.tr/PreTablo.do?alt_id=1047
  • TUIK, (2019), Analitik Çerçeve, Kapsam, Tanımlar ve Sınıflandırmalar. http://www.tuik.gov.tr/PreTablo.do?alt_id=1059
  • Tung, R. L. (1984), “Strategic Management of Human Resources In The Multinational Enterprise”. Human Resource Management, 23(2), 129-143.
  • Turner, M. G., Gardner, R. H., and O'neill, R. V. (2001). Landscape Ecology in Theoryand Practice (Vol. 401). New York: Springer.
  • UNCTAD, (2018), E-Handbook of Statistics. United Nations Conference on Tradeand Development.
  • UNITED NATIONS Population Division, (2001), World Populations Prospects. The 2000 Revision, Highlights, Population Division Department of Economicand Social Affairs United Nations, New York.
  • US CENSUS, (2011), Age and Sex Composition: 2010. C2010BR-03, US Department of Commerce, Economics and Statistics Administration, US Census Bureau.
  • Stoletov, V.N., Kon, İ.S., Zamaşin, Y.A., Blyahman, L.S., Poşatayev, V.V., & Volkov, G.N. (1979), Toplum ve Gençlik. Çeviren: Şükrü Keleş, Konuk Yayınları, İstanbul.
  • Wang, X., Chen, Y., Liu, B., Shen, Y., and Sun, H. (2013), “A Total Factor Productivity Measure for The Construction Industry and Analysis of Its Spatial Difference: A Case Study In China”. Construction Management and Economics, 31(10), 1059–1071.
  • Ward, M. D., and Gleditsch, K. S. (2018), Spatial Regression Models (Vol. 155). Sage Publications.
There are 44 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language English
Journal Section Articles
Authors

Aykut Sezgin 0000-0001-7039-8032

Sevim Unutulmaz 0000-0002-2286-9458

Publication Date September 20, 2020
Published in Issue Year 2020 Volume: 4 Issue: 3

Cite

APA Sezgin, A., & Unutulmaz, S. (2020). A Provincial Youth Population Analysis In Terms of Time And Space: The Case of Turkey. Fiscaoeconomia, 4(3), 613-627. https://doi.org/10.25295/fsecon.762163

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