Income Disparity, Institutional Effectiveness, and Environmental Decline in Post-Soviet Economies: Insights from VEC and VAR Causality Methods

Year 2025, Volume: 9 Issue: 1, 1 - 12, 25.02.2025

Nermin Yaşar Başkaraağaç

https://doi.org/10.25295/fsecon.1512817

Abstract

This research investigates how income distribution, and the quality of institutions influence environmental damage in post-Soviet economies from 1996 to 2020, employing advanced panel estimation techniques. To test Granger causality, we utilize two alternative methodological procedures: The VECM and the augmented level VAR model with integrated and co-integrated procedures of arbitrary orders suggested by Toda & Yamamoto (1995). Our primary finding suggests that although the VECM results do not uncover a causal relationship running from income distribution and institutional quality to CO2 emission, the Toda-Yamamoto approach indicates causality from the Gini index and the majority of the evaluated institutional quality indicators—such as control of corruption, government effectiveness, regulatory quality, and rule of law—to carbon dioxide emissions. Strong institutions bolster the enforcement of environmental policies, encourage sustainability, and mitigate emissions by ensuring compliance with regulations and responsible resource utilization. Addressing income inequality in observed countries is vital as it leads to consumption disparities and limited access to clean technologies, resulting in heightened carbon emissions and environmental degradation, especially pertinent in post-Soviet economies where adopting equitable economic policies alongside robust environmental regulations and governance is imperative.

Keywords

Income disparity, institutional effectiveness, CO2 emission, ARDL, VEC, VAR, Toda-Yamamoto approach

Sovyet Sonrası Ekonomilerde Gelir Eşitsizliği, Kurumsal Etkinlik ve Çevresel Gerileme: VEC ve VAR Nedensellik Yöntemlerinden Çıkarımlar

Abstract

Bu çalışma, gelişmiş panel veri tekniklerini kullanarak 1996-2020 dönemi için post-Sovyet ekonomilerinde gelir eşitsizliği ve kurumsal etkinlik ile çevresel bozulma arasındaki nedensellik ilişkisini incelemektedir. Granger nedensellik sürecinin araştırılması için iki alternatif yöntem olarak Vektör Hata Düzeltme (VHD) modeli ve Toda & Yamamoto (1995) tarafından geliştirilen VAR modeli kullanılmıştır. Temel bulgumuz, VHD modeli sonuçlarına göre gelir eşitsizliği ve kurumsal kalite ile karbondioksit emisyonu arasında nedensel bir ilişki ortaya çıkmamasına rağmen Toda-Yamamoto yaklaşımı, Gini endeksinden ve yolsuzluk kontrolü, hükümet etkinliği, düzenleyici kalite ve hukukun üstünlüğü gibi kurumsal kalite göstergelerinden karbondioksit emisyonuna doğru ilerleyen bir nedensellik ilişkisinin bulunduğunu öne sürmektedir. Elde ettiğimiz sonuçlara esasen, gözlemlenen ülkelerde güçlü kurumlar, çevre politikalarının uygulanmasını destekler, sürdürülebilirliği teşvik eder ve düzenlemelere uyumu ve sorumlu kaynak kullanımını sağlayarak emisyonları azaltır. Diğer yandan, gelir eşitsizliği tüketim farklılıklarına ve temiz teknolojilere sınırlı erişime yol açarak karbon emisyonlarının artmasına ve çevresel bozulmaya neden olabilmektedir. Bu durum, sağlam çevre düzenlemeleri ve yönetişimin yanı sıra adil ekonomik politikaların benimsenmesinin zorunlu olduğu Sovyet sonrası ekonomiler için geçerli olmaktadır.

Keywords

Gelir eşitsizliği, kurumsal etkinlik, CO2 emisyonu, ARDL, VEC, VAR, Toda-Yamamoto yaklaşımı

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