Forecasting Fig Production in Turkey by Arima Model

Year 2021, Volume: 10 Issue: 3, 16 - 22, 31.12.2021

Figen Çukur Tayfun Çukur

Abstract

Many fruits are grown in Turkey thanks to ecological conditions and climate eligibiliy. Turkey ranks first in the world in the production and export of many fruits. Turkey ranks second in fig production and first in fig exports in the world. The purpose of the current study is to forecast the amount of fig production for the period of 2020-2025. To this end, fig production in Turkey in this period was forecasted with Box Jenkins ARIMA model by using fig production data covering the period between 1990 and 2019. According to the results of the study, fig production in Turkey was estimated to be 314659.4 tons in 2025.

Keywords

time series, fig, forecast, ARIMA

Forecasting Fig Production in Turkey by Arima Model

Abstract

Ekolojik koşulların ve iklimin uygunluğu sayesinde Türkiye’de birçok meyve türü yetiştirilmektedir. Türkiye birçok meyve türünün üretimi ve ihracatında dünyada ilk sıralarda yer almaktadır. Türkiye dünyada incir üretiminde ikinci, incir ihracatında ise ilk sırada yer almaktadır. Bu araştırmanın amacı, 2020-2025 dönemine ait incir üretim miktarlarının tahmin edilmesidir. Bunun için 1990-2019 dönemlerini kapsayan incir üretim verileri kullanılarak, Box Jenkins ARIMA modeli ile Türkiye'de incir üretimi tahmin edilmiştir. Araştırama sonuçlarına göre Türkiye’de 2025 yılında incir üretimi 314659.4 ton tahmin edilmiştir.

Keywords

Zaman serileri, incir, tahmin, ARIMA

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