Türkiye’de hanehalkı enflasyon beklentilerinin belirleyicileri: Dijital bankacılık ve makroekonomik göstergeler üzerine bir analiz

Abstract

Enflasyon beklentileri, para politikasının aktarım mekanizmasının etkinliği ve fiyat istikrarının sağlanması açısından merkezi bir öneme sahiptir. Özellikle hanehalkı enflasyon beklentileri, tüketim ve tasarruf kararları üzerinden makroekonomik dengeleri doğrudan etkileyen temel bir değişken olarak öne çıkmaktadır. Bu bağlamda çalışmanın amacı dijital bankacılık kullanımının ve seçilen makroekonomik göstergelerin hanehalkı enflasyon beklentileri üzerindeki etkilerini Türkiye özelinde incelemektir. 2015.Q1-2025.Q4 dönemine ilişkin çeyreklik veriler kullanılarak ARDL modeli yardımıyla hem uzun dönemli hem de kısa dönemli ilişkiler analiz edilmiştir. Oluşturulan modelde bağımlı değişken olarak hanehalkı enflasyon beklentisi seçilmiş, bağımsız değişkenler olarak ise dijital bankacılık kullanımı, ekonomik büyüme oranları, politika faizi, TÜFE ve işsizlik oranı seçilmiştir. Mevcut çalışmalar, dijital finansın hanehalkı tüketimi/geliri ve makro enflasyon göstergeleri üzerindeki etkilerini incelemesine rağmen, dijital bankacılık kullanımının hanehalkı enflasyon beklentilerinin seviyesi, yanlılığı veya dağılması üzerindeki etkisi araştırılmamıştır. Bu çalışma, söz konusu boşluğu doldurmayı amaçlamaktadır. Elde edilen bulgular, dijital bankacılık kullanımının hanehalkı enflasyon beklentilerini hem kısa hem de uzun dönemde etkilediğini göstermektedir. Uzun dönemde dijital bankacılık, ekonomik büyüme, tüketici fiyat endeksi ve işsizlik oranının enflasyon beklentileri üzerinde pozitif ve anlamlı etkileri olduğu tespit edilmiştir. Kısa dönem sonuçları ise politika faiz oranının enflasyon beklentilerini azaltıcı yönde etkilediğini, enflasyon ve ekonomik büyüme göstergelerinin ise beklenti oluşumunda etkili olduğunu ortaya koymaktadır.

Keywords

• hanehalkı enflasyon beklentisi
• dijital bankacılık
• ardl sınır testi

Determinants of household inflation expectations in Türkiye: An analysis of digital banking and macroeconomic indicators

Abstract

Inflation expectations play a central role in the effectiveness of the monetary policy transmission mechanism and the maintenance of price stability. In particular household inflation expectations constitute a key determinant of macroeconomic dynamics by directly influencing consumption and saving decisions. In this context, this study aims to examine the effects of digital banking usage and selected macroeconomic indicators on household inflation expectations in Türkiye. Using quarterly data covering the period 2015:Q1–2025:Q4, both long-run and short-run relationships are analyzed within the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) framework. Household inflation expectations are employed as the dependent variable, while digital banking usage, economic growth, the policy interest rate, CPI, and the unemployment rate are included as explanatory variables. While the existing literature has examined the effects of digital finance on household consumption, income, and macroeconomic inflation indicators, the impact of digital banking usage on the level, bias, and dispersion of household inflation expectations remains largely unexplored. This study seeks to address this gap in the literature. The findings indicate that the use of digital banking affects household inflation expectations in both the short and long run. In the long run, digital banking, economic growth, the consumer price index, and the unemployment rate are found to have positive and significant effects on inflation expectations. Short-term results show that the policy interest rate has a mitigating effect on inflation expectations, while inflation and economic growth indicators are influential in shaping expectations.

Keywords

• household inflation expectations
• digital banking
• ardl bounds testing approach

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