Türkiye’de hanehalkı enflasyon beklentilerinin belirleyicileri: Dijital bankacılık ve makroekonomik göstergeler üzerine bir analiz

Öz

Enflasyon beklentileri, para politikasının aktarım mekanizmasının etkinliği ve fiyat istikrarının sağlanması açısından merkezi bir öneme sahiptir. Özellikle hanehalkı enflasyon beklentileri, tüketim ve tasarruf kararları üzerinden makroekonomik dengeleri doğrudan etkileyen temel bir değişken olarak öne çıkmaktadır. Bu bağlamda çalışmanın amacı dijital bankacılık kullanımının ve seçilen makroekonomik göstergelerin hanehalkı enflasyon beklentileri üzerindeki etkilerini Türkiye özelinde incelemektir. 2015.Q1-2025.Q4 dönemine ilişkin çeyreklik veriler kullanılarak ARDL modeli yardımıyla hem uzun dönemli hem de kısa dönemli ilişkiler analiz edilmiştir. Oluşturulan modelde bağımlı değişken olarak hanehalkı enflasyon beklentisi seçilmiş, bağımsız değişkenler olarak ise dijital bankacılık kullanımı, ekonomik büyüme oranları, politika faizi, TÜFE ve işsizlik oranı seçilmiştir. Mevcut çalışmalar, dijital finansın hanehalkı tüketimi/geliri ve makro enflasyon göstergeleri üzerindeki etkilerini incelemesine rağmen, dijital bankacılık kullanımının hanehalkı enflasyon beklentilerinin seviyesi, yanlılığı veya dağılması üzerindeki etkisi araştırılmamıştır. Bu çalışma, söz konusu boşluğu doldurmayı amaçlamaktadır. Elde edilen bulgular, dijital bankacılık kullanımının hanehalkı enflasyon beklentilerini hem kısa hem de uzun dönemde etkilediğini göstermektedir. Uzun dönemde dijital bankacılık, ekonomik büyüme, tüketici fiyat endeksi ve işsizlik oranının enflasyon beklentileri üzerinde pozitif ve anlamlı etkileri olduğu tespit edilmiştir. Kısa dönem sonuçları ise politika faiz oranının enflasyon beklentilerini azaltıcı yönde etkilediğini, enflasyon ve ekonomik büyüme göstergelerinin ise beklenti oluşumunda etkili olduğunu ortaya koymaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• hanehalkı enflasyon beklentisi
• dijital bankacılık
• ardl sınır testi

Determinants of household inflation expectations in Türkiye: An analysis of digital banking and macroeconomic indicators

Öz

Inflation expectations play a central role in the effectiveness of the monetary policy transmission mechanism and the maintenance of price stability. In particular household inflation expectations constitute a key determinant of macroeconomic dynamics by directly influencing consumption and saving decisions. In this context, this study aims to examine the effects of digital banking usage and selected macroeconomic indicators on household inflation expectations in Türkiye. Using quarterly data covering the period 2015:Q1–2025:Q4, both long-run and short-run relationships are analyzed within the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) framework. Household inflation expectations are employed as the dependent variable, while digital banking usage, economic growth, the policy interest rate, CPI, and the unemployment rate are included as explanatory variables. While the existing literature has examined the effects of digital finance on household consumption, income, and macroeconomic inflation indicators, the impact of digital banking usage on the level, bias, and dispersion of household inflation expectations remains largely unexplored. This study seeks to address this gap in the literature. The findings indicate that the use of digital banking affects household inflation expectations in both the short and long run. In the long run, digital banking, economic growth, the consumer price index, and the unemployment rate are found to have positive and significant effects on inflation expectations. Short-term results show that the policy interest rate has a mitigating effect on inflation expectations, while inflation and economic growth indicators are influential in shaping expectations.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• household inflation expectations
• digital banking
• ardl bounds testing approach

Kaynakça

1. Özer, Y. B., ve Mutluer, D. (2005). Inflation expectations in Turkey: Statistical evidence from the business tendency survey. Central Bank Review, 2, 73-97.
2. Akkoyunlu, S. (1999). Turkish consumption and saving. [PhD thesis]. Oxford University, UK. DOI:10.5287/ora- 6rx6vbyay
3. Andreev, A., Grishchenko, V., Lymar, M., Orlov, D., ve Shubin, I. (2024). Factors in the formation of inflation expectations as recorded in the Russian National Survey of consumer finance. Economic Policy, 19(5), 54-83. DOI:10.18288/1994-5124-2024-5-54-83
4. Andreou, P., ve Anyfantaki, S. (2021). Financial literacy and its influence on internet banking behavior. European Management Journal, 39(5), 658-674. DOI:10.1016/j.emj.2020.12.001
5. Armantier, O., Bruin, W. B., Potter, S., Topa, G., Klaauw, W., ve Zafar, B. (2013). Measuring inflation expectations. The Annual Review of Economics, 5(1), 273-301. DOI:10.1146/annurev-economics-081512- 141510
6. Bachmann, O., Gründler, K., Potrafke, N., ve Seiberlich, R. (2021). Partisan bias in inflation expectations. Public Choice, 513-536. DOI: 10.1007/s11127-019-00741-0
7. Baker, J. D., ve Lam, J. P. (2023). Assessing the credibility of Central Bank signals: The case of transitory inflation. Economics Letters, 220. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2022.110875
8. Binder, C. C., Campbell, J. R., ve Ryngaert, J. M. (2022). Consumer inflation expectations: Daily dynamics. Journal of Monetary Economics, 145, 103613 . https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103613

9. Blanchflower, D. G., ve Maccoille, C. (2009). The formation of inflation expectations: An empirical enalysis for the US. National Bureau of Economic Research(15388). DOI:10.3386/w15388
10. Candia, B., Coibion, O., ve Gorodnichenko, Y. (2021). The inflation expectations of US firms: Evidence from a new survey. NBER Working Paper, 28836. https://doi.org/10.3386/w28836.
11. Carroll, C. D. (2003). Macroeconomic expectations of households and professional forecasters. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 118(1), 269-298. DOI:10.1162/00335530360535207
12. Cavallo, A. (2017). Are online and offline prices similar? Evidence from large multi-channel retailers. American Economic Review, 107(1), 283-303. https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.20160542
13. Cavallo, A., Cruces, G., ve Truglia-Perez, R. (2017). Inflation expectations, learning, and supermarket prices: Evidence from survey experiments. American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 9(3), 1-35. https://doi.org/10.1257/mac.20150147
14. Coibion, O., ve Gorodnichenko, Y. (2012). What can survey forecasts tell us about information rigidities? Journal of Political Economy, 120(1), 116-159. https://doi.org/10.1086/665662
15. D'Acunto, F., Malmendier, U., Ospina, J., ve Weber, M. (2019). Exposure to daily price changes and inflation expectations. CESifo Working Paper, No. 7798, http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3468030
16. Dash, P., Rohit, A., ve Devaguptapu, A. (2020). Assessing the de-anchoring of Households’ long-term inflation expectations in the US. Journal of Macroeconomics (63), DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2019.103183
17. Dilanchiev, A., ve Taktakishvili, T. (2022). Macroeconomic determinants of household consumptions in Georgia. Annals of Financial Economics., 16(4), 2150020. DOI:10.1142/S2010495221500202
18. Ehrmann, M., Pfajfar, D., ve Santoro, E. (2017). Consumers’ attitudes and their inflation expectations. Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2015-015. Washington: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, http://dx.doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.2015.015
19. Ekmen, İ., ve Karatepe, Y. (2024). Examining the nexus of financial inclusion, Household consumption, and economic growth: A 3SLS Approach. Ekonomi, Politika & Finans Araştırmaları Dergisi, 9(1), 1-25. doi:10.30784/epfad.1433921
20. Friedman, M. (1968). The role of monetary policy. American Economic Review, 58(1), 1-17. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-349-24002-9_11
21. Gök, R., ve Tiwari, A. K. (2022). Analysis of the frequency-based relationship between inflation expectations and gold returns in Turkey. İstanbul Business Research, 51(2), 535-561. https://doi.org/10.26650/ibr.2022.51.996964
22. Gülşen, E., ve Kara, H. (2020). Formation of inflation expectations: Does macroeconomic and policy environment matter? International Journal of Central Banking, Working Paper.
23. Galí, J., ve Gertler, M. (1999). Inflation dynamics: A structural econometric analysis. Journal of Monetary Economics, 44(2), 195-222. 10.1016/S0304-3932(99)00023-9
24. Gnan, E., Langthaler, J., ve Valderrama, M. T. (2011). Heterogeneity in Euro Area consumers’ inflation expectations: Some stylized facts and implications. Monetary Policy and the Economy, Q2(11), 43–66.
25. Granger, C. W. (1969). Investigating causal relations by econometric models and cross-spectral methods. Econometria, 37(3), 424-438. https://doi.org/10.2307/1912791
26. Ünlü, A. (2025). Macroeconomic balances and geopolitical risks: determinants of domestic savings in Türkiye. İstanbul Ticaret Üniversitesi Girişimcilik Dergisi, 8(18), 152-167. https://doi.org/10.55830/tje.1732703
27. Kahveci, E., ve Gurgur, T. (2025). Digital payments and sustainable economic growth: Transmission mechanisms and evidence from an emerging economy, Turkey. Journal of Theoretical and Applied Electronic Commerce Reserach, 20(142), 1-29. DOI:10.3390/jtaer20020142
28. Kapoor, P., ve Kar, S. (2023). A review of inflation expectations and perceptions research in the past four decades: A bibliometric analysis. International Economics and Economic Policy, 20(2), 279-302. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10368-023-00557-w
29. Kara, H., ve Küçük-Tuğer, H. (2010). Inflation expectations in Turkey: Learning to be rational. Applied Economics(42), 2725-2742. https://doi.org/10.1080/00036840801964559
30. Kass-Hanna, J., Lyons, A. C. ve Liu, F., (2020). Building financial resilience through financial and digital literacy in South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa. Emerging Markets Review, 51, 100846. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ememar.2021.100846
31. Kikuchi, J., ve Nakazono, Y. (2023). The formation of inflation expectations: Microdata evidence from Japan. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 55(6), 1609-1632. https://doi.org/10.1111/jmcb.12944
32. Koç, Ü., Öğünç, F., ve Özmen, M. U. (2021). The Role of expectations in the ınflation process in Turkey: Have the Dynamics Changed Recently? Türkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankası Working Paper, 21(02), 1-21.
33. Kose, A. M., Matsuoka, H., Panizza, U., ve Vorisek, D. (2019). Inflation expectations review and evidence. Policy Research working paper, no.WPS 8785. http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/723151553110873395
34. Kumar, P. I. (2023). Analysing the behavioural, psychological, and demographic determinants of financial decision making of household investors. Heliyon, 1-16. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.heliyon.2023.e13085
35. Li, J., Wu, Y., & Xiao, J. J. (2020). The impact of digital finance on household consumption: Evidence from China. Economic Modelling, 86(1-2), 317-326. DOI:10.1016/j.econmod.2019.09.027
36. Lucas, R. E. (1972). Expectations and the neutrality of money. Journal of Economic Theory, 4(2), 103-124.
37. Luoma, A., ve Luoto, J. (2009). Modelling the general public’s inflation expectations using the Michigan survey data. Applied Economics, 41(10), 1311-1320. DOI: 10.1080/00036840701604339
38. Mika, K., ve Mikko, S. (1994). Measuring inflation expectations in Finland: A survey data approach. Bank of Finland Discussion Papers, 21(1994), 1-34.
39. Mincer, J. A., ve Zarnowitz, V. (1969). The evaluation of economic forecasts. ın economic forecasts and expectations: Analysis of forecasting behavior and performance. chap. 1, https://www.nber.org/books-and- chapters/economic-forecasts-and-expectations-analysis-forecasting-behavior-and-performance/evaluation- economic-forecasts.
40. Muth, J. F. (1961). Rational expectations and the theory of price movements. Econometrica, 29(3), 315-335.
41. Pala, F. (2024). The impact of the widespread adoption of digital payment systems on individual spending habits and savings. PressAcademia Procedia (PAP)(20), 99-106. DOI: 10.17261/Pressacademia.2024.1961
42. Rumler, F., ve Valderrama, M. T. (2020). Inflation literacy and inflation expectations: Evidence from Austrian household survey data. Economic Modelling, 87, 8-23. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2019.06.016
43. Sharma, N. K., ve Bicchal, M. (2018). The properties of inflation expectations: Evidence for India. Economia, 19(1), 74-89. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econ.2017.12.002
44. Shiller, R. J. (2017). Narrative economics. American Economic Review, 107(4), 967-1004.
45. Souleles, N. S. (2004). Expectations, heterogeneous forecast errors, and consumption. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 36(1), 39-72. https://dx.doi.org/10.1353/mcb.2004.0007.
46. Soybilen, B., ve Yazgan, E. (2017). An evaluation of inflation expectations in Turkey. Central Bank Review, 17(1), 31-38. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.cbrev.2017.01.001
47. Syafi'i, A. (2025). Econometric analysis of inflation dynamics in digital payment ecosystems in emerging markets. Journal of Applied Econometric (JoAE), 1(1), 9-15. DOI:10.64910/journaljoae.v1i1.2
48. Şahin, A. (2022). Basiretli tacir, iktisadi değişkenler ve rasyonel bekleyişler. 5th International Congress on Economics, Finance and Energy (EFE’2022). Kazakhstan.
49. TCMB. (2024, 06 28). Enflasyon beklentilerinin takibi için yeni bir yayın: Sektörel enflasyon beklentileri.
50. Ueda, K. (2010). Determinants of households’ inflation expectations in Japan and the United States. Journal of Japanese International Economies, 24(4), 503-518. 10.1016/j.jjie.2010.06.002
51. Yıldırım, M. O. (2021). What influences ınflation expectations in Turkey? . In book: Theoretical and Empirical Perspectives on Economic and Financial Issues (s. 211-228). içinde Ankara: Gazi Publications.
52. Zhang, C., Liu, Z., Xu, Y., ve Zhang, Y. (2022). How do firms form inflation expectations? Empirical evidence from the United States. Economic Research, 35(1), 1142-1161. https://doi.org/10.1080/1331677X.2021.1958245