Reel sektör firmalarında borçlanma dinamiklerinin belirlenmesi: BİST sanayi firmaları üzerine bir panel veri uygulaması

Yıl 2022, , 15 - 34, 18.02.2022

Sercan Kırık , Çiğdem Kurt Cihangir

https://doi.org/10.30855/gjeb.2022.8.1.002

Öz

Bu çalışmada, BİST Sınai Endeksindeki (XUSIN) firmaların borçlanma dinamiklerine etki eden firmaya özgü, sektöre özgü ve makroekonomik faktörlerin belirlenmesi amaçlanmıştır. Borçlanma göstergesi olarak finansal borçların esas alındığı üç finansal kaldıraç oranı belirlenmiştir. Analiz dönemi olarak 2010Ç1-2019Ç4 dönemi belirlenmiş olup, çalışmada panel veri analizi yöntemi kullanılmıştır. Çalışma sonucunda şu bulgular elde edilmiştir: Birincisi, sektörün finansal borç ortalamaları, her üç, kısa – uzun ve toplam, finansal borç oranında da etkilidir. İkincisi, kısa vadeli ve toplam finansal borç oranları açısından hem firmaya özgü faktörler hem de farklı makroekonomik faktörler etkili iken; uzun vadeli finansal borç oranı üzerinde makroekonomik faktörlerin etkili olmadığı belirlenmiştir. Kısa vadeli finansal borç oranı ile bankacılık sektörü ve tüketici güven endeksi arasındaki ve toplam finansal borç oranı ile borsa arasındaki ilişkilerin varlığı, çalışmayı diğer çalışmalardan farklılaştıran bulgulardır. Finansal gelişmişliğin birer göstergesi olarak bankacılık sektörü ve sermaye piyasalarının ekonomideki etkinliklerinin ve finansal birimlerin ekonomik beklentilerinin dikkate alınması, çalışmanın temel katkıları olarak sıralanabilir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

BİST Sınai Endeksi, Borçlanma Dinamikleri, Panel Veri Analizi

Determining borrowing dynamics in non-financial sector firms: A panel data study on industrial firms listed in BİST

Öz

This study aims to determine the firm-specific, sector-specific, and macroeconomic factors that affect the leverage dynamics of the firms listed in the BİST Industrial Index (XUSIN). Three financial leverage ratios based on financial debt are determined as debt indicators. For the period 2010Q1 - 2019Q4, panel data analysis method is used in the study. As a result of the study, the following findings are obtained. Firstly, the financial debt averages of the sector are effective in all three determined financial debt ratios. Secondly, while both firm-specific factors and different macroeconomic factors are effective in terms of short-term financial debt ratio and total financial debt ratio, it is determined that macroeconomic factors are not effective on the long-term financial debt ratio. The findings on the relationship between the short-term financial debt ratio and the banking sector and consumer confidence index and between the total financial debt ratio and the stock market distinguish the study from other studies. The main contributions of this study are considering the activities of the banking sector and capital markets in the economy as an indicator of financial development and considering the economic expectations of financial units.

Anahtar Kelimeler

BİST Industrial Index, Leverage Dynamics, Panel Data Analysis

Kaynakça

• Abdioğlu, N. ve Deniz, D. (2015). Borsa İstanbul’da işlem gören imalat sanayi şirketlerinin sermaye yapılarının firmaya özgü belirleyicileri. Sosyoekonomi, 23(26), 195-213. https://doi.org/10.17233/se.53896
• Acaravcı, S. ve Doğukanlı, H. (2004). Türkiye’de sermaye yapısını etkileyen faktörlerin imalat sanayinde sınanması. İktisat İşletme ve Finans, 19(225), 43–57.
• Alipour, M., Mohammadi, M. F. S. ve Derakhshan, H. (2015). Determinants of capital structure: An empirical study of firms in Iran. International Journal of Law and Management, 57(1), 53-83. https://doi.org/10.1108/IJLMA-01-2013-0004
• Antoniou A., Güney Y. ve Paudyal K. (2008). The determinants of capital structure: Capital market-oriented versus bank-oriented institutions. The Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 43(1), 59-92. https://doi.org/10.1017/s0022109000002751
• Bai, J. S. ve Ng, S. (2004). A PANIC attack on unit roots and cointegration. Econometrica, 72(4), 1127-1177. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0262.2004.00528.x
• Baker, M. ve Wurgler, J. (2002). Market timing and capital structure. The Journal of Finance, 57(1), 1-32. https://doi.org/10.1111/1540-6261.00414
• Baltagi, H. (2005). Econometric analysis of panel data. John Wiley & Sons.
• Bancel, F. ve Mittoo, U. R. (2004). Cross country determinants of capital structure choice: A survey of European firms. Financial Management, 33(4), 103-132.
• Bayraktutan, Y. ve Demirtaş, I. (2011). Gelişmekte olan ülkelerde cari açığın belirleyicileri: Panel veri analizi. Kocaeli Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, (22), 1-28.
• Booth, L., Aivazian, V., Demirgüç-Kunt, A. ve Maksimovic, V. (2001). Capital structure in developing countries. The Journal of Finance, 56(1), 87-130. https://doi.org/10.1111/0022-1082.00320
• Breuer, J. B., Mcnown, R. ve Wallace, M. (2002). Series-specific unit root tests with panel data. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statitics, 64(5), 527-546. https://doi.org/10.1111/1468-0084.00276
• Breusch, T. S. ve Pagan, A. R. (1980). The Lagrange Multiplier Test and its applications to model specification in econometrics. The Rewiev of Economic Studies, 47(1), 239-253. https://doi.org/10.2307/2297111
• Chen, J.J. (2004). Determinants of capital structure of Chinese listed companies. Journal of Business Research, 57(12), 1341-1351. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0148-2963(03)00070-5
• Cortez, M. A. ve Susanto, S. (2012). The determinants of corporate capital structure: Evidence from Japanese manufacturing companies. Journal of International Business Research, 11(3), 121-134.
• Brounen, D., De Jong, A. ve Koedijk, K. (2006). Capital structure policies in Europe: Survey evidence. Journal of Banking & Finance, 30(5), 1409-1442. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2005.02.010
• Daskalakis, N., Balios, D. ve Dalla V. (2017). The behaviour of SMEs’ capital structure determinants in different macroeconomics states. Journal of Corporate Finance, 46, 248-260. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcorpfin.2017.07.005
• De Jong, A., Kabir, R. ve Nguyen, T. (2008). Capital structure around the World: The roles of firm- and country-specific determinants. Journal of Banking & Finance, 32(9), 1954-1969. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2007.12.034
• Demirgüç-Kunt, A. ve Maksimovic, V. (1996). Stock market developments and firms’ financing choices. World Bank Economic Review, 10(2), 341-369. https://doi.org/10.1093/wber/10.2.341
• Elmas, B. ve Temurlenk, M. S. (2009). Hisse senedi fiyatı-işlem hacmi arasındaki Granger Nedensellik: İMKB’de hisse bazlı bir analiz. İMKB Dergisi, 11(43), 1-15.
• Kuehnhausen, F. ve Stieber, H. (2014). Determinants of capital structure in non-financial companies. Munich Discussion Paper No: 2014-38, 1-57.
• Fama, E. F. ve French, K. R. (2002). Testing trade-off and pecking order predictions about dividends and debt. The Review of Financial Studies, 15(1), 1-33. https://doi.org/10.1093/rfs/15.1.1
• Ferrarini, B., Hinojales, M. ve Scaramozzino, P. (2017). Leverage and capital structure determinants of Chinese listed companies. ADB Economics Working Paper Series, (509), 1-26. http://dx.doi.org/10.22617/WPS178640-2
• Foster, M. D. ve Young, M. T. (2013). Capital structure determinants for emerging markets by geographic region. Journal of Applied Financial Research, 1, 55-87.
• Frank, M. Z. ve Goyal, V. K. (2009). Capital structure decisions: Which factors are reliably important?. MPRA Paper No: 22525, 1-67. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1755-053X.2009.01026.x
• Göçer, İ., Mercan, M. ve Hotunluoğlu, H. (2012). Seçilmiş OECD ülkelerinde cari işlemler açığının sürdürülebilirliği: Yatay kesit bağımlılığı altında çoklu yapısal kırılmalı panel veri analizi. Maliye Dergisi, (163), 449-467.
• Graham, J. R., Harvey, C. R. ve Puri, M. (2015). Capital allocation and delegation of decision-making authority within firms. Journal of Financial Economics, 115(2015), 449-470. https://doi.org/10.3386/w17370
• Gujaratı, D. N. ve Porter, D. C. (2012). Temel ekonometri. Çev: Ü. Şenesen ve G. G. Şenesen, Literatür Yayıncılık.
• Hadri, K. ve Kurozumi, E. (2012). A simple panel stationarity test in the presence of serial correlation and a common factor. Economics Letters, 115(1), 31-34. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2011.11.036
• Hanousek, J. ve Shamshur, A. (2011). A stubborn persistence: Is the stability of leverage ratios determined by the stability of the economy?. Journal of Corporate Finance, 17(5), 1360-1376. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcorpfin.2011.07.004
• Harris, M. ve Raviv, A. (1991). The theory of capital structure. The Journal of Finance, 46(1), 297-355. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6261.1991.tb03753.x
• Hausman, J. A. (1978). Specification tests in econometrics. Econometrica, 46(6), 1251-1271. https://doi.org/10.2307/1913827
• Hovakimian, A., Opler, T. Ve Titman, S. (2001). The debt-equity choice. The Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 36(1), 1-24. https://doi.org/10.2307/2676195
• Fan, J. P. H., Titman, S. ve Twite, G. (2012). An international comparison of capital structure and debt maturity choices. Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 47(1), 23-56. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0022109011000597
• Jensen, M. C. (2001). Value maximization, stakeholder theory, and the corporate objection function. Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, 14(3), 8-21. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1745-6622.2001.tb00434.x
• Jensen, M. C. ve Meckling, W. H. (1976). Theory of the firm: Managerial behavior, agency cost and ownership structure. Journal of Financial Economics, 3(4), 305-360. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-405X(76)90026-X
• Joeveer K. (2013). Firm, country and macroeconomic determinants of capital structure: Evidence from transition economies. Journal of Comparative Economics, 41(1), 83-121. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jce.2012.05.001
• Kakilli Acaravcı, S. (2015). The determinants of capital structure: Evidence from the Turkish manufacturing sector. International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, 5(1), 158-171.
• Karacaer, S., Temiz, H. ve Güleç, Ö. F. (2016). Determinants of capital structure: An application on manufacturing firms in Borsa İstanbul. International Academic Journal of Accounting and Financial Management, 3(2), 47-59.
• Karadeniz, E., İskenderoğlu, Ö. ve Dalak, S. (2018, 10-13 Ekim). Sermaye yapısı kararlarını etkileyen makroekonomik değişkenlerin analizi: BİST perakende sektörü üzerine bir uygulama, Uluslararası Katılımlı 22. Finans Sempozyumu içinde (s. 1011-1027). Mersin, Türkiye.
• Karaşahin, R. ve Küçüksaraç, D. (2016). Revisiting capital structure of non-financial public firms in Turkey. Türkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankası Çalışma Belgesi, (16/09), 1-34.
• Kayiş Beşiktaşlı, D. ve Kurt Cihangir, Ç. (2020). Tüketici güven endeksinin finansal piyasalara ve makroekonomik yapıya etkisi. Finans, Ekonomi ve Sosyal Araştırmalar Dergisi, 5(1), 54-67. https://doi.org/10.29106/fesa.658565
• Kayo, E. K. ve Kimura, H. (2011). Hierarchical determinants of capital structure. Journal of Banking & Finance, 35 (2), 358-371. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2010.08.015
• Kirkpatrick, C. ve Green, C. (2002). Finance and development: An overview of the issues. Journal of International Development, 14(2), 207–209. https://doi.org/10.1002/jid.872
• Koç, E., Kaya, K. ve Şenel, M. C. (2017). Türkiye’de sanayi sektörü ve temel sanayi göstergeleri – ekonomik güven endeksi. Mühendis ve Makina, 58(688), 15-37.
• Koçbulut, Ö. ve Altıntaş, H. (2016). İkiz açıklar ve Feldstein-Horioka hipotezi: OECD ülkeleri üzerine yatay kesit bağımlılığı altında yapısal kırılmalı panel eşbütünleşme analizi. Erciyes Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, (48), 145-174.
• Köksal, B. ve Orman, C. (2014). Determinant of capital structure: Evidence from a major developing economy. TCMB Working Paper, (14/26), 1-51. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11187-014-9597-x
• Kraus, A. ve Litzenberger, R. H. (1973). A state-preference model of optimal financial leverage. The Journal of Finance. 28(4), 911-922. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6261.1973.tb01415.x
• Leland, H. ve Pyle, D. H. (1977). Information asymmetries, finance structure and financial intermediation. Journal of Finance, 32(2), 371-387. https://doi.org/10.2307/2326770
• Lewis, W. A. (2003). The theory of economic growth. Routledge (İlk Baskı: 1955).
• Psillaki, M. ve Daskalakis, N. (2009). Are the determinants of capital structure country or firm specific?. Small Business Econ, 33(3), 319-333. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11187-008-9103-4
• Mackay, P. ve Phillips, G. M. (2005). How does industry affect firm financial structure?. Review of Financial Studies, 18, 1433-1466. https://doi.org/10.1093/rfs/hhi032
• Miao, J. (2005). Optimal capital structure and industry dynamics. Journal of Finance, 60(6), 2621-2659. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6261.2005.00812.x
• Modigliani, F. ve Miller, M. H. (1958). The cost of capital, corporation finance and the theory of investment. The American Economic Review, 48(3), 261-297.
• Modigliani, F. ve Miller, M. H. (1963). Corporate income taxes and the cost of capital: A correction. The American Economic Review, 53(3), 433-443.
• Myers, S. C. (1977). Determinants of corporate borrowing. Journal of Financial Economics, 5(2), 147-175. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-405X(77)90015-0
• Myers, S. C. (1984). The capital structure puzzle. The Journal of Finance, 39(3), 574-592. https://doi.org/10.3386/w1393
• Myers, S. C. (2001). Capital structure. The Journal of Economic Perspectives, 15, 81-102. https://doi.org/10.1257/jep.15.2.81
• Myers, S. C. ve Majluf, N. S. (1984). Corporate financing and investment decisions when firms have information that investors do not have. Journal of Financial Economics, 13(1984), 187-221. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-405X(84)90023-0
• Okuyan, H. A. ve Taşçı, H. M. (2010). Sermaye yapısının belirleyicileri: Türkiye’deki en büyük 1000 sanayi işletmesinde bir uygulama. BDDK Bankacılık ve Finansal Piyasalar, 4(1), 105-120.
• Öztekin, Ö. ve Flannery, M. J. (2012). Institutional determinants of capital structute adjustment speeds. Journal of Financial Economics, 103(1), 88-112. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfineco.2011.08.014
• Öztürk, M. B. ve Şahin, E. E. (2013). İMKB’de işlem gören spor firmalarının sermaye yapısının belirleyicileri üzerine bir analiz. Verimlilik Dergisi, 2013(1), 7-24.
• Pesaran, M. H. (2004). General diagnostic tests for cross section dependence in panels. Discussion Paper Series, (1240), 1-39.
• Pesaran, M. H. (2007). A simple panel unit root test in the presence of cross-section dependence. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 22(2), 265-312. https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.951
• Pesaran, M. H. ve Yamagata, T. (2008). Testing slope homogeneity in large panels. Journal of Econometrics, 142(1), 50-93. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2007.05.010
• Polat, M. (2017). Döviz kurunun firmaların piyasa değerine etkisi: OECD ülkeleri üzerine eşbütünleşme ve nedensellik analizi. Atatürk Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 32(2), 211-230.
• Proença, P., Laureano, R. M. S. ve Laureano, L. M. S. (2014). Determinants of capital structure and the 2008 financial crisis: Evidence from Portuguese SMEs. Procedia Social and Behavioral Sciences, 150, 182-191. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.sbspro.2014.09.027
• Ramli, N. A., Latan, H. ve Solovida, G. T. (2019). Determinants of capital structure and firm financial performance-A PLS-SEM approach: Evidence from Malaysia and Indonesia. The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, 71, 148-160. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.qref.2018.07.001
• Ross, S. A. (1977). The determination of financial structure: The incentive-signalling approach. The Bell Journal of Economics, 8(1), 23-40. https://doi.org/10.2307/3003485
• Sayılgan, G., Karabacak, H. ve Küçükkocaoğlu, G. (2006). The firm-specific determinants of corporate capital structure: Evidence from Turkish panel data. Investment Management and Financial Innovations, 3(3), 125-139.
• Singh, D. (2016). A panel data analysis of capital structure determinants: An empirical study of non-financial firms in Oman. International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, 6(4), 1650-1656.
• Topaloğlu, E. E. (2018). Sermaye yapısına etki eden firmaya özgü faktörlerin panel veri analizleri ile belirlenmesi: Kurumsal yönetim endeksi üzerine bir uygulama. Finans Politik & Ekonomik Yorumlar, (640), 63-100.
• Wooldridge, J. M. (2013). Introductory econometrics a modern approach. South-Western.
• Yarba, İ. ve Güner, Z. H. (2019). Leverage dynamics: Do financial development and government leverage matter? Evidence from a major developing economy, TCMB Working Paper, (19/15), 1-37.