Singer-Prebisch Teorisi Bağlamında Tarım ve Sanayi Ürünleri Ticaretinin Ekonomik Büyümeye Etkisi: Gelişmiş ve Gelişmekte Olan Ülkeler Üzerine Bir Panel Veri Analizi

Abstract

Bu çalışma, Singer-Prebisch teorisi çerçevesinde tarım ve sanayi ürünleri ticaretinin ekonomik büyüme üzerindeki etkilerini ampirik olarak analiz etmektedir. 2000–2022 dönemini kapsayan panel veri seti, gelişmiş ve gelişmekte olan toplam 16 ülkeyi içermektedir. Değişkenlerin durağanlık düzeyleri panel birim kök testleri ile belirlendikten sonra, veri yapısına uygun olarak Panel ARDL çerçevesinde Augmented Mean Group (AMG) yöntemi tercih edilmiştir. Analizler, dış ticaretin etkilerini daha net gözlemleyebilmek amacıyla ülke gruplarına göre ayrı ayrı gerçekleştirilmiştir. Bulgular, gelişmiş ülkelerde sanayi ürünleri ithalatının ekonomik büyümeyi pozitif etkilediğini, tarım ürünleri ticaretinin ise sınırlı bir rol oynadığını göstermektedir. Ayrıca, Brent petrol fiyatlarının büyümeyi artırıcı, buğday fiyatlarının ise olumsuz etkisi olduğu tespit edilmiştir. Gelişmekte olan ülkelerde ise emtia fiyatlarının büyüme üzerinde daha belirleyici olduğu; özellikle bakır fiyatlarının pozitif, alüminyum fiyatlarının ise negatif yönde anlamlı etkide bulunduğu ortaya konmuştur. Sonuçlar, Singer-Prebisch hipotezini büyük ölçüde desteklemekte olup, politika önerilerinin ülke ve sektör düzeyinde farklılaştırılması gerektiğini ortaya koymaktadır.

Keywords

• Singer-Prebisch Teorisi
• Tarım ve Sanayi Ürünleri Dış Ticareti
• Eknomik Büyüme
• Panel Data analizi

The Impact of Agricultural and Manufactured Goods Trade on Economic Growth in The Context of The Singer-Prebisch Theory: A Panel Data Analysis of Developed and Developing Countries

Abstract

This study analyzes the impact of agricultural and manufactured goods trade on economic growth within the framework of the Singer-Prebisch theory. The panel dataset includes 16 developed and developing countries for the period 2000–2022. Following panel unit root tests, the Augmented Mean Group (AMG) estimator was employed within a Panel ARDL framework. The analyses were conducted separately for developed and developing countries. The findings indicate that, in developed countries, manufactured imports positively affect economic growth, while agricultural trade plays a limited role. In addition, Brent oil prices were found to have a positive effect on growth, whereas wheat prices were found to have a negative effect. In developing countries, commodity prices were found to play a more decisive role in economic growth. Specifically, copper prices were found to have a positive and significant effect on economic growth, whereas aluminum prices were found to have a negative and significant effect. The results largely support the Singer-Prebisch hypothesis and indicate that policy recommendations should be differentiated at the country and sectoral levels.

Keywords

• Singer-Prebisch Theory
• Agricultural and Manufactured Goods Trade
• Economic Growth
• Panel Data Analysis

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