“An Analysis of Causality Relation Between Economic Growth and Central Bank Independence: An Empiric Application: A Sample of Turkey”

Year 2012, Volume: 7 Issue: 2, 149 - 168, 01.06.2012

Erkan Demirbaş M Veysel Kaya

Abstract

The aim of this study is to analyze the causality relation between central Bank Independence and economic growth in Turkey, using time series data from 1980 to 2010. In the scope of this aim, an econometric application was held by using the VECM method in which Public sector borrowing requirement, central Bank Independence Index, unemployment rate are added the model as an independent variables, and Gross Domestic Production per capita as a dependent variable. Results show that there is causality from unemployment rate and central Bank Independence to gdp per capita in the short run. In the long run, there is a validity of long run associationship among all the variables

Keywords

Gross domestic products, Central Bank Independence, Cointegration, Vector error correction model-VECM

“Ekonomik Büyüme ve Merkez Bankası Bağımsızlığı Arasında Nedensellik İlişkisi: Ekonometrik Bir Uyulama: Türkiye Örneği”

Abstract

Bu çalışmanın amacı Türkiye’de merkez bankası bağımsızlığı ile ekonomik büyüme arasındaki nedensellik ilişkisini 1980-2010 yılları arasındaki verileri kullanarak incelemektir. Bu amaç çerçevesinde Hata Düzeltme Modeli kullanılarak ekonometrik bir uygulama yapılmış ve bu uygulamada merkez bankası bağımsızlığı, işsizlik oranı, kamu borçlanma gereği bağımsız değişken, ekonomik büyümeyi temsil eden kişi başı GSYİH ise bağımlı değişken olarak modelde yer almıştır. Elde edilen sonuçlar, kısa dönemde işsizlik ve merkez bankası bağımsızlığından kişi başı GSYH’ye doğru bir nedensellik olduğu ortaya koymaktadır. Uzun dönemde ise tüm değişkenler arasında uzun dönem ilişkisi tespit edilmiştir

Keywords

GSYH, Merkez Bankası Bağımsızlığı, Eş-bütünleşme, Hata Düzeltme Modeli

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