Research Article
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Impact of Change Point Presence in Extreme Rainfall Series on Hydrological Design

Year 2020, Volume: 37 Issue: 3, 109 - 114, 31.12.2020
https://doi.org/10.13002/jafag4699

Abstract

The study was conducted to on analyze the variations in maximum rainfall data sequences and the impact of change on these datasets through frequency analysis. This goal was achieved with Pettitt test considered in the detection of change-point and, with Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution for frequency analysis. Based on the GEV distribution, quantile values at different return periods were estimated for two data sets before and after the change-point for each site. The couple of quantile at each return period had a significant differences. It was emphasized that it was imperative to eliminate the change in data in obtaining reliable data required in the design of hydraulic projects. When the double-mass curve method was applied to data with a change point, it was confirmed that a reliable data would be able to be reached.

References

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  • Chu HJ, Pan TY and Liou JJ. (2012).Change-point detection of long-duration extreme precipitation and the effect on hydrologic design: a case study of south Taiwan. Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment, 26(8): 1123-1130.
  • Duhan D and Pandey A. (2013). Statistical analysis of long term spatial and temporal trends of precipitation during 1901–2002 at Madhya Pradesh, India. Atmospheric Research, 122: 136-149.
  • Erdogan M. (2020). Fırat-Dicle Havzasında Farklı Şiddetteki Maksimum Yağmurların L-Momentler Yaklaşımıyla Bölgesel Frekans Analizi. Tokat Gaziosmanpasa Universitesi Fen Bilimleri Enstitüsü, Yüksek Lisans Tezi, Tokat.
  • Hosking JRM and Wallis JR. (1997). Regional Frequency Analysis: An Approach Based on LMoments. Cambridge University Press: Cambridge, U.K.
  • Kazemzadeh M and Malekian A. (2018). Homogeneity analysis of streamflow records in arid and semi-arid regions of northwestern Iran. Journal of Arid Land, 10: 493-506.
  • Mahmood Agha OM, Bagcacı SC and Şarlak N. (2017). Homogeneity analysis of precipitation series in North Iraq. IOSR Journal of Applied Geology and Geophysics, 5(3): 57-63.
  • Pettitt AN. (1979). A non-parametric approach to the change point problem. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series C (Applied Statistics), 28(2): 126-135.
  • Sahin S and Cigizoglu HK. (2010). Homogeneity analysis of Turkish meteorological data set. Hydrological Processes, 24(8): 981-992.
  • Smadi MM and Zghoul A. (2006). A sudden change in rainfall characteristics in Amman, jordan during the mid 1950s. American Journal of Environmental Sciences, 2(3): 84-99.
  • Wijngaard JB, Kleink Tank AMG and Konnen GP. (2003). Homogeneity of 20th century european daily temperature and precipitation series. International Journal of Climatology, 23(6): 679-692.
  • Yuksel S. (2019). Kızılırmak Havzasında Mevsimsel Ve Yıllık Yağmurlardaki Değişkenliğin Saptanması. Tokat Gaziosmanpasa Universitesi Fen Bilimleri Enstitüsü, Yüksek Lisans Tezi, Tokat.
  • Yurekli K. (2005). Regional frequency analysis of maximum daily rainfalls based on l-moment approach. Journal of Agricultural Faculty of Gaziosmanpasa University, 22 (1): 37-44.
  • Yurekli K. (2015). Impact of climate variability on precipitation in theUpper Euphrates–Tigris Rivers Basin of Southeast Turkey. Atmospheric Research, 154: 25-38.
  • Yurekli K. (2019).Detecting Change-point in Seasonal Reference Evapotranspiration (ETo) datasets. Journal of Agricultural Faculty of Gaziosmanpasa University, 36 (3): 206-210. doi:10.13002/jafag4595.
Year 2020, Volume: 37 Issue: 3, 109 - 114, 31.12.2020
https://doi.org/10.13002/jafag4699

Abstract

References

  • Anlı AS. (2009). Ankara’da Meydana Gelen Yağmurların L Moment Yöntemleri ile Bölgesel Frekans Analizi. Ankara Üniversitesi Fen Bilimleri Enstitüsü, Doktora Tezi.
  • Chu HJ, Pan TY and Liou JJ. (2012).Change-point detection of long-duration extreme precipitation and the effect on hydrologic design: a case study of south Taiwan. Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment, 26(8): 1123-1130.
  • Duhan D and Pandey A. (2013). Statistical analysis of long term spatial and temporal trends of precipitation during 1901–2002 at Madhya Pradesh, India. Atmospheric Research, 122: 136-149.
  • Erdogan M. (2020). Fırat-Dicle Havzasında Farklı Şiddetteki Maksimum Yağmurların L-Momentler Yaklaşımıyla Bölgesel Frekans Analizi. Tokat Gaziosmanpasa Universitesi Fen Bilimleri Enstitüsü, Yüksek Lisans Tezi, Tokat.
  • Hosking JRM and Wallis JR. (1997). Regional Frequency Analysis: An Approach Based on LMoments. Cambridge University Press: Cambridge, U.K.
  • Kazemzadeh M and Malekian A. (2018). Homogeneity analysis of streamflow records in arid and semi-arid regions of northwestern Iran. Journal of Arid Land, 10: 493-506.
  • Mahmood Agha OM, Bagcacı SC and Şarlak N. (2017). Homogeneity analysis of precipitation series in North Iraq. IOSR Journal of Applied Geology and Geophysics, 5(3): 57-63.
  • Pettitt AN. (1979). A non-parametric approach to the change point problem. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series C (Applied Statistics), 28(2): 126-135.
  • Sahin S and Cigizoglu HK. (2010). Homogeneity analysis of Turkish meteorological data set. Hydrological Processes, 24(8): 981-992.
  • Smadi MM and Zghoul A. (2006). A sudden change in rainfall characteristics in Amman, jordan during the mid 1950s. American Journal of Environmental Sciences, 2(3): 84-99.
  • Wijngaard JB, Kleink Tank AMG and Konnen GP. (2003). Homogeneity of 20th century european daily temperature and precipitation series. International Journal of Climatology, 23(6): 679-692.
  • Yuksel S. (2019). Kızılırmak Havzasında Mevsimsel Ve Yıllık Yağmurlardaki Değişkenliğin Saptanması. Tokat Gaziosmanpasa Universitesi Fen Bilimleri Enstitüsü, Yüksek Lisans Tezi, Tokat.
  • Yurekli K. (2005). Regional frequency analysis of maximum daily rainfalls based on l-moment approach. Journal of Agricultural Faculty of Gaziosmanpasa University, 22 (1): 37-44.
  • Yurekli K. (2015). Impact of climate variability on precipitation in theUpper Euphrates–Tigris Rivers Basin of Southeast Turkey. Atmospheric Research, 154: 25-38.
  • Yurekli K. (2019).Detecting Change-point in Seasonal Reference Evapotranspiration (ETo) datasets. Journal of Agricultural Faculty of Gaziosmanpasa University, 36 (3): 206-210. doi:10.13002/jafag4595.
There are 15 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language English
Journal Section Research Articles
Authors

Kadri Yürekli This is me

Publication Date December 31, 2020
Published in Issue Year 2020 Volume: 37 Issue: 3

Cite

APA Yürekli, K. (2020). Impact of Change Point Presence in Extreme Rainfall Series on Hydrological Design. Journal of Agricultural Faculty of Gaziosmanpaşa University (JAFAG), 37(3), 109-114. https://doi.org/10.13002/jafag4699