TÜRKIYE’DE 2008 SONRASI PARA ARZININ İÇSELLİĞİ-DIŞSALLIĞI ANALİZİ

Year 2021, , 416 - 443, 25.12.2021

Mehmet Mert Türk , Salih Barışık

https://doi.org/10.46849/guiibd.972538

Abstract

Paranın yaratım sürecine yönelik tartışmalardaki fikir ayrılığı para arzının içsel (endogenous) mi dışsal (exogenous) mı belirlendiği noktasında derinleşmektedir. Monetarist görüşe ait enflasyon hedeflemesi rejimi altındaki Türkiye ekonomisini test eden 2008:10-2021:02 dönemli çalışmada para arzının Monetarist görüş varsayımını yanlışlar şekilde içsel olduğu tespit edilmiştir. Paranın içselliği para yaratımını üretim ile bağdaştırarak merkez bankalarını son ödünç verme mercii olarak sistemin içinde tutmaktadır. Analiz sonucunda para arzının içsel olduğu bulgusu diğer bir bakış açısıyla ilgili dönem için TCMB’nin fonksiyonel bir bağımsızlık taşımadığını da dolaylı olarak göstermektedir.

Keywords

Para Politikası ve Teorisi, Para Arzının İçselliği-Dışsallığı, Zaman Serisi Analizi, Kırılmalı Birim Kök Testleri

INTERNALITY-EXTERNALITY ANALYSIS OF MONETARY SUPPLY POST-2008 IN TURKEY

Abstract

The disagreement in the debates on the creation process of money deepens at the point of whether the money supply is determined internally (endogenous) or externally (exogenous). In the 2008:10-2021:02 period study that tests the Turkish economy under the inflation targeting regime of the Monetarist view, it has been determined that the money supply is internal, inaccurately the Monetarist view assumption. The internality of money links money creation with production, keeping central banks in the system as the lender of last resort. As a result of the analysis, the finding that the money supply is internal also indirectly shows that the CBRT did not have a functional independence for the relevant period from another point of view.

Keywords

Monetary Theory and Policy, Internality-Externality of Money Supply, Time Series Analysis, Structural Break Unit Root Tests

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