Zoning of Ecuador According to Maximum Magnitudes of Earthquakes and their Frequency of Occurrence using Statistical Models Estimated by Maximum Likelihood

Abstract

This work applied the extreme value theory and Poisson regression considering maximum likelihood estimates to characterize the 5 seismicity zones of Ecuador obtained through cluster analysis. The Gumbel model was optimal in describing maximum magnitudes in these areas. The Poisson regression model was used to estimate the frequency of earthquakes as a function of magnitude (MW) for each zone. Zones 1 (portions of Esmeraldas and Manabí and their respective maritime zones) and 5 (north central of Ecuador) were the most representative in terms of recurrence and seismic magnitudes.

Keywords

• Seismic recurrence time
• Extreme values
• Peaks-over-Threshold
• Block maxima
• Poisson regression

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