Multi-Method Earthquake Risk Analysis and Location-Depth Estimation for Pazarcık (Kahramanmaraş): Statistical and Machine Learning Approaches

Year 2025, Volume: 12 Issue: 4, 1149 - 1168, 31.12.2025

Ulaş İnan Sevimli

https://doi.org/10.54287/gujsa.1809724

Abstract

This study delivers a robust earthquake risk analysis for the highly seismically active Pazarcık region in Kahramanmaraş, Turkey. By examining a substantial dataset of 2,148 earthquake occurrences spanning from 1114 to 2023, including three significant historical records, we meticulously calculated earthquake probabilities using a diverse array of seven cutting-edge statistical and machine learning methodologies. Furthermore, we effectively estimated the location and depth of the impactful earthquake that struck on February 6, 2023. The analytical methods employed—ranging from the Poisson process, Gutenberg-Richter law, Weibull distribution, Gamma distribution, and the ETAS model to Extreme Value Theory and the sophisticated XGBoost algorithm—enabled us to rigorously evaluate the probabilities of earthquakes with magnitudes M≥3, M≥4, M≥5, M≥6, and M≥7 over timeframes extending from 1 to 250 years. Our findings convey a striking probability estimate: the likelihood of an M≥7 earthquake occurring in the region within the next 50 years is between 45.6% and 51.2% (averaging at 45.9%), escalating to 70.5% within 100 years and a staggering 94.9% within 250 years. In our pursuit of precise location and depth estimations, the Kernel Density Estimation (KDE) method emerged as the most reliable tool. It achieved an impressively low margin of error of (−0.0004°, −0.0092°) for the coordinates of the February 6, 2023 earthquake, alongside approximately a 0.5 km margin of error in depth estimation. Overall, the depth estimation accuracy reached an astounding 98.5%. This comprehensive study powerfully demonstrates that employing a multi-method approach not only enhances the reliability of results but is essential for accurate earthquake hazard risk analyses.

Keywords

Earthquake Risk Analysis , Statistical Modelling , Seismic Hazard , Pazarcık

References

• Aksoy, E., İnceöz, M., & Koçyiğit, A. (2007). Lake Hazar basin: A negative flower structure on the East Anatolian Fault System (EAFS), SE Turkey. Turkish Journal of Earth Sciences, 16(3), 319-338.
• Ambraseys, N. (2009). Earthquakes in the Mediterranean and Middle East: A multidisciplinary study of seismicity up to 1900. Cambridge University Press. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0016756810000452
• Arpat, E., & Şaroğlu, F. (1972). Doğu Anadolu Fayı ile ilgili bazı gözlemler ve düşünceler. Maden Tetkik ve Arama Dergisi, 78(78), 44-50.
• Ateş, R., & Bayülke, N. (1977). 26 Mart 1977 Palu Elazığ Depremi. Deprem Araştırma Daire Başkanlığı (Yayımlanmamış Rapor), Ankara.
• B.Ü. KRDAE Bölgesel Deprem-Tsunami İzleme ve Değerlendirme Merkezi. (n.d.). Bölgesel Deprem Veritabanı. http://www.koeri.boun.edu.tr/sismo/zeqdb/
• Chen, T., & Guestrin, C. (2016). XGBoost: A scalable tree boosting system. Proceedings of the 22nd ACM SIGKDD International Conference on Knowledge Discovery and Data Mining, 785-794. https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.1603.02754
• Duman, T., & Emre, Ö. (2013). The East Anatolian Fault: Geometry, segmentation and jog characteristics. Geological Society, London, Special Publications, 372, 495-529. https://doi.org/10.1144/SP372.14
• Erisoğlu, M., Calış, N., Servi, T., Erişoğlu, Ü., & Topaksu, M. (2011). The mixture distribution models for interoccurrence times of earthquakes. Russian Geology and Geophysics, 52(7), 737-744. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rgg.2011.06.007
• Field, E. H., Biasi, G. P., Bird, P., Dawson, T. E., Felzer, K. R., Jackson, D. D., Johnson, K. M., Jordan, T. H., Madden, C., Michael, A. J., Milner, K. R., Page, M. T., Parsons, T., Powers, P. M., Shaw, B. E., Thatcher, W. R., Weldon, R. J., II, & Zeng, Y. (2013). Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, Version 3 (UCERF3): The Time-Independent Model. U.S. Geol. Survey Open File Report 2013-1165, 97 p. https://doi.org/10.3133/ofr20131165.
• Gardner, J. K., & Knopoff, L. (1974). Is the sequence of earthquakes in Southern California, with aftershocks removed, Poissonian? Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 64(5), 1363-1367. https://doi.org/10.1785/BSSA0640051363
• Gül, M. A. (2000). Kahramanmaraş yöresinin jeolojisi. (PhD Thesis). Hacettepe University.
• Gutenberg, B., & Richter, C. F. (1944). Frequency of earthquakes in California. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 34, 185-188. https://doi.org/10.1785/BSSA0340040185
• Hagiwara, Y. (1974). Probability of earthquake occurrence as obtained from a Weibull distribution analysis of crustal strain. Tectonophysics, 23, 313-318. https://doi.org/10.1016/0040-1951(74)90030-4
• Hempton, M. R. (1982). The North Anatolian fault and complexities of continental escape. Journal of Structural Geology, 4(4), 502-504. https://doi.org/10.1016/0191-8141(82)90041-4
• İmamoğlu, M. Ş. (1993). Gölbaşı (Adıyaman)-Pazarcık-Narlı (K.Maraş) arasındaki sahada Doğu Anadolu Fayı’nın neotektonik incelemesi. (PhD Thesis). Ankara University.
• İmamoğlu, M. Ş. (1996). Doğu Anadolu fay zonu Gölbaşı kesimi neotektonik özellikleri ve Gölbaşı-Saray fay kaması havzası. Türkiye Jeoloji Kurultayı Bülteni, 11, 176-184.
• İmamoğlu, M. Ş., & Çetin, E. (2007). Güneydoğu Anadolu Bölgesi ve yakın yöresinin depremselliği. Dicle Üniversitesi Ziya Gökalp Eğitim Fakültesi Dergisi, (9), 93-103.
• Jackson, J., & McKenzie, D. (1984). Active tectonics of the Alpine—Himalayan Belt between western Turkey and Pakistan. Geophysical Journal International, 77(1), 185-264. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-246X.1984.tb01931.x
• Kagan, Y., & Jackson, D. (2000). Probabilistic forecasting of earthquakes. Geophysical Journal International, 143, 438-453. https://doi.org/10.1046/j.1365-246X.2000.01267.x
• Mousavi, S. M., & Beroza, G. C. (2020). A machine-learning approach for earthquake magnitude estimation. Geophysical Research Letters, 47, e2019GL085976. https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL085976
• MTA. (n.d.). 1/25.000 ölçekli sayısal jeoloji haritaları ve veritabanı. Maden Tetkik ve Arama Genel Müdürlüğü. https://eticaret.mta.gov.tr/index.php?route=product/category&path=2
• Ogata, Y. (1988). Statistical models for earthquake occurrences and residual analysis for point processes. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 83, 9-27. https://doi.org/10.1080/01621459.1988.10478560
• Oğlakçı, O., Demirkol, C., & Sevimli, U. İ. (2016). Kahramanmaraş (Türkoğlu-Narlı) yakın dolayının jeolojik incelemesi ve tektonik evrimi. Çukurova Üniversitesi Mühendislik-Mimarlık Fakültesi Dergisi, 24(1), 209-227.
• Öztürk, U. (2011). Modelling extreme earthquake events using extreme value theory for Turkey. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 11(2), 463-471. https://doi.org/10.2143/AST.37.1.2020804
• Parsons, T. (2004). Recalculated probability of M ≥ 7 earthquakes beneath the Sea of Marmara, Turkey. Journal of Geophysical Research, 109, B05304. https://doi.org/10.1029/2003JB002667
• Pisarenko, V. F., & Sornette, D. (2012). Statistical methods of parameter estimation for the generalized extreme value distribution in the case of largest earthquakes. Tectonophysics, 536, 87-94. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tecto.2012.03.012
• Rikitake, T. (1991). Assessment of earthquake hazard in the Tokyo area, Japan. Tectonophysics, 199(1), 121-131. https://doi.org/10.1016/0040-1951(91)90122-9
• Schwartz, D. P., & Coppersmith, K. J. (1984). Fault behavior and characteristic earthquakes: Examples from the Wasatch and San Andreas fault zones. Journal of Geophysical Research, 89, 5681-5698. https://doi.org/10.1029/JB089iB07p05681
• Sengor, A. M. C., & Gorür, N. (1985). Strike-slip faulting and related basin formation in zones of tectonic escape: Turkey as a case study. In K. Biddle & N. Christie-Blick (Eds.), Strike-Slip Deformation, Basin Formation and Sedimentation (Special Publications, Vol. 37, pp. 227-264). SEPM Society for Sedimentary Geology. https://doi.org/10.2110/pec.85.37.0227
• Sevimli, U. İ. (2022). Adıyaman ve civarının istatistiksel deprem risk analizi. Geosound, 56(1), 62-80.
• Sevimli, U. İ., & Ünlügenç, Ü. C. (2022). Malatya Ovacık Fay Zonunun Yazıhan segmentinin istatistiksel deprem risk analizi. Geosound, 56(1), 38-61.
• Shimazaki, K. (2002). Long-term probabilistic forecast in Japan and time-predictable behavior of earthquake recurrence. In Y. Fujinawa & A. Yoshida (Eds.), Seismotectonics in Convergent Plate Boundary (pp. 37-43). Terra Scientific Publishing Company.
• Sykes, L., & Nishenko, S. (1984). Probabilities of occurrence of large plate rupturing earthquakes for the San Andreas, San Jacinto, and Imperial faults, California, 1983-2003. Journal of Geophysical Research, 89, 5905-5927. https://doi.org/10.1029/JB089iB07p05905
• Şaroğlu, F., Emre, Ö., & Kuşçu, İ. (1992). The East Anatolian fault zone of Turkey. Annales Tectonicae, (Special Issue-Supplement to Volume VI), 99–125.
• Udias, A., & Rice, J. (1975). Statistical analysis of microearthquake activity near San Andreas geophysical observatory, Hollister, California. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 65(4), 809-827.
• Utsu, T. (1984). Estimation of parameters for recurrence models of earthquakes. Bulletin of the Earthquake Research Institute, University of Tokyo, 59, 53-66.
• Utsu, T. (2002). List of deadly earthquakes in the world: 1500-2000. In W. K. Lee, H. Kanamori, P. C. Jennings, & C. Kisslinger (Eds.), International Handbook of Earthquake and Engineering Seismology (Part A, pp. 691-717). Academic Press.
• Westaway, R. (2003). Kinematics of the Middle East and eastern Mediterranean updated. Turkish Journal of Earth Sciences, 12(1), 5-46.
• Zhuang, J., Ogata, Y., & Vere-Jones, D. (2002). Stochastic declustering of space-time earthquake occurrences. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 97, 369-380. https://doi.org/10.1198/016214502760046925