Multi-Method Earthquake Risk Analysis and Location-Depth Estimation for Pazarcık (Kahramanmaraş): Statistical and Machine Learning Approaches

Ulaş İnan Sevimli

doi:10.54287/gujsa.1809724

Multi-Method Earthquake Risk Analysis and Location-Depth Estimation for Pazarcık (Kahramanmaraş): Statistical and Machine Learning Approaches

Abstract

This study delivers a robust earthquake risk analysis for the highly seismically active Pazarcık region in Kahramanmaraş, Turkey. By examining a substantial dataset of 2,148 earthquake occurrences spanning from 1114 to 2023, including three significant historical records, we meticulously calculated earthquake probabilities using a diverse array of seven cutting-edge statistical and machine learning methodologies. Furthermore, we effectively estimated the location and depth of the impactful earthquake that struck on February 6, 2023. The analytical methods employed—ranging from the Poisson process, Gutenberg-Richter law, Weibull distribution, Gamma distribution, and the ETAS model to Extreme Value Theory and the sophisticated XGBoost algorithm—enabled us to rigorously evaluate the probabilities of earthquakes with magnitudes M≥3, M≥4, M≥5, M≥6, and M≥7 over timeframes extending from 1 to 250 years. Our findings convey a striking probability estimate: the likelihood of an M≥7 earthquake occurring in the region within the next 50 years is between 45.6% and 51.2% (averaging at 45.9%), escalating to 70.5% within 100 years and a staggering 94.9% within 250 years. In our pursuit of precise location and depth estimations, the Kernel Density Estimation (KDE) method emerged as the most reliable tool. It achieved an impressively low margin of error of (−0.0004°, −0.0092°) for the coordinates of the February 6, 2023 earthquake, alongside approximately a 0.5 km margin of error in depth estimation. Overall, the depth estimation accuracy reached an astounding 98.5%. This comprehensive study powerfully demonstrates that employing a multi-method approach not only enhances the reliability of results but is essential for accurate earthquake hazard risk analyses.

Keywords

References

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Details

Primary Language

English

Subjects

Geology (Other)

Journal Section

Research Article

Authors

Ulaş İnan Sevimli ^*
0000-0003-1168-2150
Türkiye

Publication Date

December 31, 2025

Submission Date

October 24, 2025

Acceptance Date

November 14, 2025

Published in Issue

Year 2025 Volume: 12 Number: 4

DOI

https://doi.org/10.54287/gujsa.1809724

IZ

https://izlik.org/JA77EZ62WG

Cite

RIS / Bibtex

APA

Sevimli, U. İ. (2025). Multi-Method Earthquake Risk Analysis and Location-Depth Estimation for Pazarcık (Kahramanmaraş): Statistical and Machine Learning Approaches. Gazi University Journal of Science Part A: Engineering and Innovation, 12(4), 1149-1168. https://doi.org/10.54287/gujsa.1809724

AMA

1.Sevimli Uİ. Multi-Method Earthquake Risk Analysis and Location-Depth Estimation for Pazarcık (Kahramanmaraş): Statistical and Machine Learning Approaches. GU J Sci, Part A. 2025;12(4):1149-1168. doi:10.54287/gujsa.1809724

Chicago

Sevimli, Ulaş İnan. 2025. “Multi-Method Earthquake Risk Analysis and Location-Depth Estimation for Pazarcık (Kahramanmaraş): Statistical and Machine Learning Approaches”. Gazi University Journal of Science Part A: Engineering and Innovation 12 (4): 1149-68. https://doi.org/10.54287/gujsa.1809724.

EndNote

Sevimli Uİ (December 1, 2025) Multi-Method Earthquake Risk Analysis and Location-Depth Estimation for Pazarcık (Kahramanmaraş): Statistical and Machine Learning Approaches. Gazi University Journal of Science Part A: Engineering and Innovation 12 4 1149–1168.

IEEE

[1]U. İ. Sevimli, “Multi-Method Earthquake Risk Analysis and Location-Depth Estimation for Pazarcık (Kahramanmaraş): Statistical and Machine Learning Approaches”, GU J Sci, Part A, vol. 12, no. 4, pp. 1149–1168, Dec. 2025, doi: 10.54287/gujsa.1809724.

ISNAD

Sevimli, Ulaş İnan. “Multi-Method Earthquake Risk Analysis and Location-Depth Estimation for Pazarcık (Kahramanmaraş): Statistical and Machine Learning Approaches”. Gazi University Journal of Science Part A: Engineering and Innovation 12/4 (December 1, 2025): 1149-1168. https://doi.org/10.54287/gujsa.1809724.

JAMA

1.Sevimli Uİ. Multi-Method Earthquake Risk Analysis and Location-Depth Estimation for Pazarcık (Kahramanmaraş): Statistical and Machine Learning Approaches. GU J Sci, Part A. 2025;12:1149–1168.

MLA

Sevimli, Ulaş İnan. “Multi-Method Earthquake Risk Analysis and Location-Depth Estimation for Pazarcık (Kahramanmaraş): Statistical and Machine Learning Approaches”. Gazi University Journal of Science Part A: Engineering and Innovation, vol. 12, no. 4, Dec. 2025, pp. 1149-68, doi:10.54287/gujsa.1809724.

Vancouver

1.Ulaş İnan Sevimli. Multi-Method Earthquake Risk Analysis and Location-Depth Estimation for Pazarcık (Kahramanmaraş): Statistical and Machine Learning Approaches. GU J Sci, Part A. 2025 Dec. 1;12(4):1149-68. doi:10.54287/gujsa.1809724