Hybrid Deep Learning for Climate-Driven Atmospheric Irrigation Potential Forecasting: A Case Study for Ankara

Murat Akın

doi:10.54287/gujsa.1831069

Hybrid Deep Learning for Climate-Driven Atmospheric Irrigation Potential Forecasting: A Case Study for Ankara

Abstract

Accurate forecasting of atmospheric irrigation potential under variable climate conditions is essential for sustainable water management in semi-arid regions. In this study, monthly atmospheric irrigation potential for Ankara, Türkiye was analyzed using a hybrid residual model that combines a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) network with an Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) algorithm. Daily climate data from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Prediction of Worldwide Energy Resources (NASA POWER) archive for 2001–2024 and reference evapotranspiration (ET₀) values calculated using the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) 56 Penman–Monteith equation formed the basis of the predictors. The LSTM model learned the temporal structure of the climatic inputs, and XGBoost was then applied to represent the remaining residual errors by incorporating extended climatic and seasonal features. Testing on the 2022–2024 period, the hybrid model produced a Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of 24.4 mm, a Mean Absolute Error (MAE) of 20.3 mm and a Coefficient of Determination (R²) of 0.87. Feature-importance results showed that Month Sine and last-step ET₀ had the strongest influence, followed by relative humidity, wind speed and shortwave radiation. Although the accuracy gains over the standalone models were moderate, the hybrid design delivered more stable forecasts and a clearer view of variable contributions, offering practical value for climate-driven irrigation pressure assessment in semi-arid environments.

Keywords

References

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Details

Primary Language

English

Subjects

Deep Learning

Journal Section

Research Article

Authors

Murat Akın ^*
0000-0003-0001-1036
Türkiye

Publication Date

March 31, 2026

Submission Date

November 26, 2025

Acceptance Date

January 21, 2026

Published in Issue

Year 2026 Volume: 13 Number: 1

DOI

https://doi.org/10.54287/gujsa.1831069

IZ

https://izlik.org/JA52ZX44BT

Cite

RIS / Bibtex

APA

Akın, M. (2026). Hybrid Deep Learning for Climate-Driven Atmospheric Irrigation Potential Forecasting: A Case Study for Ankara. Gazi University Journal of Science Part A: Engineering and Innovation, 13(1), 200-214. https://doi.org/10.54287/gujsa.1831069

AMA

1.Akın M. Hybrid Deep Learning for Climate-Driven Atmospheric Irrigation Potential Forecasting: A Case Study for Ankara. GU J Sci, Part A. 2026;13(1):200-214. doi:10.54287/gujsa.1831069

Chicago

Akın, Murat. 2026. “Hybrid Deep Learning for Climate-Driven Atmospheric Irrigation Potential Forecasting: A Case Study for Ankara”. Gazi University Journal of Science Part A: Engineering and Innovation 13 (1): 200-214. https://doi.org/10.54287/gujsa.1831069.

EndNote

Akın M (March 1, 2026) Hybrid Deep Learning for Climate-Driven Atmospheric Irrigation Potential Forecasting: A Case Study for Ankara. Gazi University Journal of Science Part A: Engineering and Innovation 13 1 200–214.

IEEE

[1]M. Akın, “Hybrid Deep Learning for Climate-Driven Atmospheric Irrigation Potential Forecasting: A Case Study for Ankara”, GU J Sci, Part A, vol. 13, no. 1, pp. 200–214, Mar. 2026, doi: 10.54287/gujsa.1831069.

ISNAD

Akın, Murat. “Hybrid Deep Learning for Climate-Driven Atmospheric Irrigation Potential Forecasting: A Case Study for Ankara”. Gazi University Journal of Science Part A: Engineering and Innovation 13/1 (March 1, 2026): 200-214. https://doi.org/10.54287/gujsa.1831069.

JAMA

1.Akın M. Hybrid Deep Learning for Climate-Driven Atmospheric Irrigation Potential Forecasting: A Case Study for Ankara. GU J Sci, Part A. 2026;13:200–214.

MLA

Akın, Murat. “Hybrid Deep Learning for Climate-Driven Atmospheric Irrigation Potential Forecasting: A Case Study for Ankara”. Gazi University Journal of Science Part A: Engineering and Innovation, vol. 13, no. 1, Mar. 2026, pp. 200-14, doi:10.54287/gujsa.1831069.

Vancouver

1.Murat Akın. Hybrid Deep Learning for Climate-Driven Atmospheric Irrigation Potential Forecasting: A Case Study for Ankara. GU J Sci, Part A. 2026 Mar. 1;13(1):200-14. doi:10.54287/gujsa.1831069