Estimation of Measured Global Solar Radiation by Artificial Neural Networks for Mersin / Turkey and Comparison with Common Solar Radiation Models

Abstract

In this study, the daily total global solar radiation values measured for Mersin between April 2017 and March 2018 were modeled using artificial neural networks and the performance of estimating daily total global solar radiation values of the common models in the literature was investigated. Daily average air temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, sunshine duration, and cloud cover data are obtained from the Turkish State Meteorological Service and solar radiation values are measured with a pyranometer. As a result, Model 37 (Yaman ve Arslan) showed the best prediction performance among the models examined, with the coefficient of determination (R²) being 0.83. the coefficient of determination (R²) was obtained 0.75 for artificial neural network that use dry bulb temperature, relative humidity and wind speed.

Keywords

• global solar radiation,artificial neural network,Mersin

Mersin / Türkiye için Ölçülen Global Güneş Işınımının Yapay Sinir Ağları ile Tahmin Edilmesi ve Yaygın Işınım Modelleri ile Karşılaştırılması

Öz

Bu çalışmada, Nisan 2017 – Mart 2018 tarihleri aralığında Mersin için ölçülen günlük toplam global güneş ışınım değerlerinin yapay sinir ağı kullanılarak modellenmesi yapılmıştır ve literatürde bulunan yaygın modellerin günlük toplam global güneş ışınım değerlerini tahmin etme performansları incelenmiştir. Günlük ortalama hava sıcaklığı, bağıl nem, rüzgar hızı, güneşlenme süresi ve bulut kapalılığı verileri, Devlet Meteoroloji İşleri Genel Müdürlüğü’nden temin edilmiş olup güneş ışnım değerleri ise piranometre ile ölçülmüştür. Sonuç olarak, incelenen modeller içerisinde en iyi tahmin performansını belirlilik katsayısı (R²) 0,83 olan Model 37 (Yaman ve Arslan) göstermiştir. Kuru termometre sıcaklığı, bağıl nem ve rüzgar hızına bağlı güneş ışınımını tahmin eden yapa sinir ağının belirlilik katsayısı (R²) 0,75 olmuştur.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Global güneş ışınımı,yapay sinir ağı,Mersin

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