Elektrik İletim Hatlarının Güvenirliği için Uygun Olasılık Dağılım Seçimi ve Analizi

Abstract

Güvenirlik, bir sistemin veya sistem bileşenlerinin belirlenen süre içerisinde, belirtilen koşullarda işlevini yerine getirme yeteneğidir. Elektrik iletim sistemlerinin en önemli kriterlerinden birisi sistem üzerindeki enerjiyi limitler dâhilinde sürekli tutabilmek ve mümkün olan en az süre kesintiye gitmektir. Güvenirlik çalışması, sistemin uygun çalışma aralığının tespit edilip gerekli müdahalenin yapılması gibi önemli avantajlar sunmaktadır. Bu çalışmada, elektrik iletim hatlarının bakım ve işletim faaliyetlerinin Güvenirlik Merkezli Bakım (Reliability Centered Maintance-RCM) ön planda tutularak yapıldığında, iletim hatlarının belirlenen limitler içerisinde en az süre kesintiye gidebileceğini gösterebilme hedefi ile iletim hattı arıza verileri kullanarak güvenirlik analizi yapılmıştır. Çalışmada, iletim hattı arıza verilerinin hangi istatistiksel dağılımdan geldiğini belirlemek için Anderson-Darling uyum iyiliği testi yapılmıştır. Uyum iyiliği ile belirlenmiş olan Log-normal dağılım ile iletim hattının güvenirlik değerlendirilmesi yapılmıştır. Güvenirlik değerlendirilmesi sonucunda iletim hattının güvenirliğinin düşük olduğu görülmüştür. İletim hatlarının bakım ve işletim faaliyetlerinin güvenirlik merkezli yapıldığında sağlayabileceği faydalar sunulmuştur.

Keywords

• Güvenirlik Analizi
• Uyum iyiliği
• Log-normal dağılım
• Anderson-Darling Test
• Anderson-Darling Test
• MTBF
• MTBF
• RCM
• RCM

Selecting and Analyzing Appropriate Probability Distributions for Reliability of Electrical Transmission Lines

Abstract

Reliability is the ability of a system or system components to function within a specified time under specified conditions. One of the most important criteria of electricity transmission systems is to be able to keep the energy on the system continuously within the limits and to be interrupted for the least possible time. The reliability study offers important advantages such as determining the appropriate operating range of the system and making the necessary intervention. In this study, it is aimed to show that when the maintenance and operation activities of electricity transmission lines are carried out with Reliability Centered Maintenance (RCM) in the foreground, the transmission lines can be interrupted for the least amount of time within the specified limits. In this direction, reliability analysis has been conducted using transmission line fault data. In the study, the Anderson-Darling goodness of fit test was performed to determine from which statistical distribution the transmission line fault data came from. The reliability of the transmission line was evaluated with the Log-normal distribution, which was determined by the goodness of fit. As a result of the reliability assessment, the reliability of the transmission line was found to be low. The advantages that transmission lines can provide when maintenance and operating activities are conducted based on reliability are presented.

Keywords

• Goodness of fit
• Anderson-Darling Test
• Anderson-Darling Test
• Log-normal distribution
• Reliability Analysis
• MTBF
• RCM

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