Gold Investment as an Inflation Hedging Instrument

Abstract

Individuals in developing economies use many alternative investment instruments to protect the purchasing power of national currency against inflation. One of these alternatives is the gold investment. Scientific studies investigate whether or the gold investment decision of individuals is really hedging instrument during the inflationary periods of economies. This study, 'Is it a hedging instrument gold investment in Turkey in inflationary period?' tries to answer its the question. While doing this, 1994-2019 period was analyzed by using gold prices and CPI monthly time series data. In the study, the relationship between gold prices and CPI was investigated with ADF, KPSS and Ng-Perron from of the traditional unit root tests, Lee ve Strazicich unit root test with endogenous structural break, a Toda-Yamamoto with structural breaks causality test. Our findings, in the period under, review doesn’t support the view that an advantage against inflation of gold investment in Turkey.

Keywords

• gold prices,Inflation

Project Number

18.KARİYER.30

Enflasyondan Korunma Aracı Olarak Altın Yatırımı

Abstract

Gelişmekte olan ekonomilerdeki bireyler, enflasyona karşı milli paranın satın alma gücünü korumak için pek çok alternatif yatırım aracı kullanmaktadır. Bu alternatiflerden birisi de altın yatırımıdır. Bilimsel nitelikli çalışmalar da ekonomilerin enflasyonist dönemlerinde bireylerin altın yatırım kararının gerçekten bir koruma aracı olup olmadığını araştırmaktadır. Bu çalışma, ‘Türkiye’de altın yatırımı enflasyonist dönemlerde bir korunma aracı mıdır?’ sorusuna cevap aramaktadır. Bunu yaparken altın fiyatları ve TÜFE aylık zaman serisi verilerini kullanarak, 1994-2019 dönemi analiz edilmiştir. Çalışmada geleneksel birim kök testlerinden ADF, KPSS ve Ng-Perron, endojen yapısal kırılmalı Lee ve Strazicich birim kök testİ ve Yapısal Kırılmalı Toda-Yamamoto nedensellik testi ile altın fiyatları ve TÜFE arasında ilişki incelenmiştir. Bulgularımız, incelenen dönemde Türkiye’de altın yatırımının enflasyona karşı bir avantaj olduğunu savunan görüşü desteklememekktedir.

Keywords

• Altın Fiyatları,Enflasyon

Supporting Institution

AKU BAP

Project Number

18.KARİYER.30

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