PARA ARZI İÇSELLİK ANALİZİ TÜRKİYE ÖRNEĞİ (2006-2017)

Yıl 2018, Cilt: 9 Sayı: 25, 136 - 152, 06.01.2019

İsmail Hakkı Kofoğlu

Öz

Para Arzı İçsellik Analizi Türkiye Örneği (2006-2017) isimli çalışma
yazar tarafından araştırılan ampirik bir çalışmadır. Bu çalışmanın amacı
Türkiye’de 2006Q1-2017Q4 döneminde para arzının içsel olup olmadığını
belirlemektir. Para arzının içsel olup olmadığı iktisat literatürde nedensellik
analizleri ile belirlenmektedir. Bu çalışmada nedensellik analizlerini
gerçekleştirmek için değişken olarak M1, M2 ve M3 Para Arzları, Toplam Kredi
Hacmi, Nominal Gayrisafi Yurtiçi Hasıla ve Tüketici Fiyat Endeksleri
kullanılmıştır. Öncelikle değişkenlerin durağanlık durumları Augment Dickey
Füller ve Phillips-Perron birim kök testleri ile belirlenmiştir. Birim kök test
sonuçlarına göre değişkenler farklı düzeyde durağan bulunmuştur. Farklı düzeyde
durağan serilerle Toda-Yamamoto nedensellik testi yapılmıştır. Yapılan
nedensellik test sonuçlarından elde edilen bulgulara göre analiz döneminde Türkiye’de
para arzının içsel olmadığı belirlenmiştir. 

Anahtar Kelimeler

Para Arzı İçselliği, İçsel Para Arzı Yaklaşımları

THE ENDOGENTY ANALYSIS OF MONEY SUPPLY THE CASE OF TURKEY(2006-2017)

Öz

The Endogenty Analysıs Of Money Supply The Case Of Turkey(2006-2017)named
study is an emperical study researched by the author. The aim of this study is
to determine whether 2006Q1-2017Q4 period the endogeneity of money supply in
Turkey. Whether the money supply is endogenous or not is determined by the
causality analysis in the economic literature. In this study, M1, M2 and M3
Money Supply, Total Credit Volum, Nominal Gross Domestic Product and Consumer
Price Indices were used as variables to perform causality analyzes. Firstly,
stationary states of variables were determined by Augment Dickey Füller and
Phillips-Perron unit root tests. According to the unit root test results,
variables were found to be stable at different levels. The Toda-Yamamoto
causality test was performed with stationary series at different levels.
According to causality test results obtained from the causality tests analysis
the money supply was not determine endegenous in the analysis period in Turkey.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Money Supply Endogeneity, Endogenous Money Supply Approaches, Toda-Yamamoto Causality

Kaynakça

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