The Effect of Global Interest Rates on Business Cycles in Developing Countries within The Austrian Business Cycle Theory Framework: A Panel VAR Application

Year 2019, Volume: 10 Issue: 2, 439 - 451, 24.07.2019

Serdar Göcen

Abstract

In this study, it was analyzed the
effects of global interest rates on nine developing countries within the Austrian
business cycle theory. According to the Austrian Business Cycles Theory, the
artificial decline in interest rates disrupts the resource allocation of the
economy, causing an unsustainable economic recovery, and the process results in
a crisis. After examining the Austrian business cycle theory for closed and open
economies, the panel VAR model was tested for the 1996-2016 period. First, it
was investigated the relationship between the US-Euro Area interest rates and
interest rates of developing countries. It was found that both interest rates
have impacts on interest rates of developing countries. Then, it was analyzed
that the effects of these three interest rates on industrial production of
developing countries. Besides the domestic interest rates, especially the US
interest rate has significant effects on changing in industrial production. 

Keywords

International Business Cycles, Austrian Business Cycle Theory, Panel VAR

Avusturya İş Çevrimleri Teorisi Çerçevesinde Global Faiz Oranlarının Gelişmekte Olan Ülkelerdeki İş Çevrimlerine Etkisi: Panel VAR Uygulaması

Abstract

Bu
çalışmada Avusturya İş Çevrimleri Teorisi çerçevesinde global faiz oranlarının
dokuz gelişmekte olan ülke üzerindeki etkileri incelenmiştir. Avusturya İş
Çevrimleri Teorisi’ne göre, faiz oranlarındaki suni düşüş ekonominin kaynak
dağılımını bozarak sürdürülebilir olmayan bir ekonomik canlanmaya neden olmakta
ve süreç krizle sonuçlanmaktadır. Avusturya İş Çevrimleri Teorisi kapalı ve
açık ekonomiler için incelendikten sonra, 1996-2016 dönemi için panel VAR
modeli ile test edilmiştir. İlk olarak, ABD ve Euro Bölgesi faiz oranları ile
gelişmekte olan ülkelerin faiz oranları arasındaki ilişki incelenmiş ve her iki
faiz oranının da gelişmekte olan ülkelerin faizleri üzerinde belirleyici
etkileri olduğu tespit edilmiştir. Daha sonra, üç faiz oranının gelişmekte
olan ülkelerin endüstriyel üretimi üzerindeki etkileri incelenmiştir. Yurt içi faizlerin yanı sıra,
özellikle ABD faiz oranının endüstriyel üretimdeki değişimler üzerinde önemli etkilere sahip olduğu
bulunmuştur. 

Keywords

Uluslararası İş Çevrimleri, Avusturya İş Çevrimleri Teorisi, Panel VAR

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