The Impact of Economic Activity and Unemployment Rate on Housing Demand: Estimating a Vector Error Correction Model for Turkey

Year 2021, Volume: 12 Issue: 3, 1157 - 1168, 25.09.2021

Ahmet Usta

Abstract

This study investigates the relationship between probability of buying a house, industrial production index, and unemployment rate in Turkey. This paper tests whether there is a long run relationship among above-stated variables by conducting a cointegration analysis and estimating a vector error correction model with a monthly data over the period between 2010:01 and 2019:12. While the test results suggest a negative and statistically significant relation between probability of buying a house and unemployment rate, the results suggest a positive but statistically insignificant relation with economic activity. Moreover, the deviation from the long run equilibrium is corrected towards equilibrium by 24% within a period.

Keywords

Probability of buying a house, Unemployment rate, Economic activity, Vector error correction model

İktisadi Aktivite ve İşsizlik Oranının Konut Talebi Üzerine Etkileri: Türkiye için Vektör Hata Düzeltme Modeli Tahmini

Abstract

Bu çalışma Türkiye'de konut satın alma ihtimali, sanayi üretim endeksi ve işsizlik oranı arasındaki ilişkiyi araştırmaktadır. Makale, eş bütünleşme analizi ve vektör hata düzeltme modelini 2010:01 ile 2019:12 arasındaki aylık verilerle tahmin ederek belirtilen değişkenler arasındaki uzun dönemli ilişki olup olmadığını test etmektedir. Test sonuçları, ev satın alma ihtimalinin işsizlik oranı ile arasında negatif ve istatistiksel olarak anlamlı ilişki olduğunu ortaya koyarken iktisadi aktivite ile arasında pozitif fakat istatistiksel olarak anlamsız ilişki olduğunu ortaya koymaktadır. İlaveten, konut satın alma ihtimalinde meydana gelen uzun dönem dengesinden sapma her bir dönem içinde %24 oranında düzelmektedir.

Keywords

Konut satın alma ihtimali, İşsizlik oranı, İktisadi faaliyet, Vektör hata düzeltme modeli

References

• Akdoğan, K., Karaçimen, E., & Yavuz, A. A. (2019). Cross country evidence on the link between job security and housing credit. Journal of Housing and the Built Environment, 34, 947-963. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10901-019-09647-1
• Akseki, U. ve Türkcan, B. (2016). Türkiye’de bölgesel göç, konut ve işgücü piyasaları üzerine panel nedensellik analizleri. International Congress of Management Economy and Policy, 1871-1882.
• Alkay, E. ve Övenç, G. (2019). ‘‘Farklı gelir gruplarının konut satın alabilirliğinde bölgesel farklılıkların incelenmesi. Uluslararası Siyaset Bilimi ve Kentsel Araştırmalar Dergisi, 7(1), 259-284. https://doi.org/10.14782/ipsus.539223
• Cagli, E.C. (2019). Explosive behavior in the real estate market of Turkey. Borsa Istanbul Review, 19(3), 258-263. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.bir.2018.10.002
• Ceritoğlu, E. (2020). Homeownership, housing demand, and household wealth distribution in Turkey. Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 56, 1146–1165. https://doi.org/10.1080/1540496X.2018.1555461
• Ceritoğlu, E., & Ganioğlu, A. (2019). What does the housing supply tell us? [Available online at: https://tcmbblog.org/wps/wcm/connect/blog/en/main+menu/analyses/what+does+the+housing+supply+tell+us], Retrieved on: January 5, 2021.
• Coşkun, Y., & Jadevicius, A. (2017). Is there a housing bubble in Turkey? Real Estate Management and Valuation, 25(1), 48-73. https://doi.org/10.1515/remav-2017-0003
• Coşkun, Y., Seven, Ü., Ertuğrul, H.M., & Alp, A. (2020). Housing price dynamics and bubble risk: The case of Turkey. Housing Studies, 35(1), 50-86. https://doi.org/10.1080/02673037.2017.1363378
• Dickey, D. A., & Fuller, W. A. (1979). Distribution of the estimators for autoregressive time series with a unit root. Journal of the American Statistical Association 74(366), 427-431. https://www.jstor.org/stable/2286348
• Dotti Sani, G. M., & Acciai, C. (2017). Two hearts and a loan? Mortgages, employment insecurity and earnings among young couples in six European countries. Urban Studies, 55(11), 2451-2469. https://doi.org/10.1177/0042098017717211
• Fingleton, B. (2008). Housing supply, housing demand, and affordability. Urban Studies, 45(8), 1545-1563. https://www.jstor.org/stable/43197839
• Gan, L., Wang, P., & Zhang, Q. (2018). Market Thickness and the impact of unemployment on housing market outcomes. Journal of Monetary Economics, 98, 27-49. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmoneco.2018.04.007
• Gayrimenkul Yatırım Ortaklıkları Derneği (GYODER), https://www.gyoder.org.tr/uploads/GYODER%20Yayınları/GOSTERGE-CEYREK4-2019-web.pd f Accessed on Sep 1, 2020.
• Girouard, N., & Blöndal, S. (2001). House prices and economic activity. (OECD Economics Department Working Papers, No. 279) OECD Publishing, Paris. https://doi.org/10.1787/061034430132
• Halicioglu, F. (2007). The demand for new housing in Turkey: An application of ARDL model. Global Business and Economics Review, 9 (1), 62–74. https://doi.org/10.1504/GBER.2007.012509
• Johansen, S. (1991). Estimation and hypothesis testing of cointegration vectors in gaussian vector autoregressive models. Econometrica, 59(6), 1551–1580. https://www.jstor.org/stable/2938278
• URL 1: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php?title=File:Demographic_balance,_2019_(thousands).png, Retrieved on: January 20, 2021.
• URL 2: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php?title=File:Youth_unemployment_rates_and_ratios,_2019,_persons_aged_15-24_(%25).png, Retrieved on January 20, 2021.
• URL 3: https://data.tuik.gov.tr/Kategori/GetKategori?p=ekonomik-guven-117&dil=1, Erişim tarihi: 20.01.2021.
• URL 4: https://ec.europa.eu/info/sites/info/files/file_import/questionnaires_tr_cons_en_0.pdf, Retrieved on January 20, 2021.
• Usta, A. (2020). The role of sentiment in housing market with credit-led funding: the case of Turkey. Journal of Housing and Built Environment, 36, 577-600. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10901-020-09776-y
• Yalçınkaya, Ö. ve Aydın, H. İ. (2017). Ekonomik ve politik belirsizliğin ekonomik büyüme üzerindeki etkileri: G-7+BRC ülkeleri üzerine bir panel veri analizi (1997-2015). Ege Akademik Bakış, 17(3), 419-430. https://doi.org/10.21121/eab.2017328407