Aggregate Firm Behavior Under Uncertainty, Sentiments, and Aggregate Income

Year 2022, Volume: 13 Issue: 1, 1 - 17, 10.02.2022

Serçin Sahin

Abstract

Firms hold buffer stocks such as capital stocks, inventories, liquid assets, and retained earnings to absorb the effects of uncertainties they face. However, the existence of such buffers affects both the performance of the firms and the aggregate income. In this study, we built a stock-flow consistent system dynamics model to analyze these effects. Dynamic equilibrium solutions present that the presence of uncertainty decreases both aggregate firm profitability and aggregate income. On the other hand, we analyzed the effects of a change in the sentiment of entrepreneurs and firm managers on aggregate variables if the levels of buffer stocks were affected by this sentiment in the presence of uncertainty. Simulation results show that a change in the sentiment index causes the aggregate income to change in the same direction.

Keywords

Uncertainty, Sentiments, Stock-flow consistent modelling, System Dynamics

Belirsizlik Altında Toplam Firma Davranışı, Güven ve Toplam Gelir

Abstract

Firmalar karşılaştıkları belirsizliğin olumsuz etkilerini bertaraf edebilmek için sabit sermaye, ürün envanterleri, likit varlıklar ve dağıtılmamış karlar gibi çeşitli tampon stoklar tutarlar. Ancak bu tamponların mevcudiyetinin hem firma performansı hem de toplam gelir üzerinde etkileri vardır. Bu çalışmada, bu etkileri analiz edebilmek için stok-akım tutarlı bir sistem dinamiği modeli kurulmuştur. Modelin dinamik denge çözümleri belirsizliğin toplam firma karlılığını ve toplam geliri düşürdüğünü ortaya koymaktadır. Öte yandan, belirsizlik altında girişimcilerin ve firma yöneticilerinin güvenlerinin bu tampon stokların düzeyini etkilemesi halinde, bu güvendeki bir değişimin ekonomi üzerindeki etkilerinin ne olacağı da araştırılmıştır. Simülasyon sonuçları güven endeksindeki bir değişimin, toplam gelirde aynı yönlü bir değişime yol açacağını göstermiştir.

Keywords

Belirsizlik, Güven, Stok-akım tutarlı modelleme, Sistem Dinamiği

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