Bulanık Uyarlanabilir Rezonans Teorisi (FuzzyART) Yöntemi Kullanılarak Heyelan Duyarlılık Analizi: Tonya (Trabzon) Örneği

Year 2018, , 135 - 146, 31.01.2018

Aykut Akgün

https://doi.org/10.17714/gumusfenbil.346532

Cited By: 5

Abstract

Bu çalışmada, şimdiye
kadar heyelan duyarlılık analizi ile ilgili literatürde kullanılmamış olan
bulanık uyarlanabilir rezonans teorisi (FuzzyART-BURT) olarak isimlendirilen ve
esasında bir küme sınıflandırıcı olan yöntemin, heyelan duyarlılık haritası
üretiminde kullanılması amaçlanmıştır. Bu amaç için, çalışma alanı olarak
çoğunlukla sığ kayma yüzeyli heyelanların sıklıkla izlendiği ve bu nedenle
geçmişten günümüze heyelan nedenli afet sürecine maruz kalan Trabzon iline
bağlı Tonya ilçesi seçilmiştir. İlk olarak çalışma alanına ait, heyelan
duyarlılık analizinde ihtiyaç duyulan hazırlayıcı nedenlerden litoloji,
yükseklik, yamaç eğimi, yamaç yönelimi, akarsu güç indeksi (AGİ) ve topoğrafik
nemlilik indeksi (TNİ) verileri elde edilmiştir. Alanda daha önceden meydana
gelmiş ve geçmiş olay envanterini yansıtan heyelan envanter verisi çalışmada
bağımlı değişken olarak kullanılmıştır. Elde edilen bu verilerden ilk olarak
her bir hazırlayıcı parametre için frekans oranı değerleri hesaplanmış,
hesaplanan bu frekans oranı değerlerinden itibaren her bir parametrede ayırt
edilen alt sınıflar için duyarlılık sınıfları belirlenmiştir. Belirlenen bu
duyarlılık sınıfları, uygulanan BURT yönteminde eğitim parametreleri olarak
kullanılmıştır. BURT ile eğitilen her bir hazırlayıcı parametre verisinden o
parametreye ait duyarlılık haritası üretildikten sonra, elde edilen tüm
duyarlılık haritalarının bir araya toplanması sonucunda inceleme alanına ait
nihai heyelan duyarlılık haritası elde edilmiştir. Üretilen sonuç heyelan
duyarlılık haritasının doğruluk analizinin yapılabilmesi amacıyla, eğri
altındaki alan (ROC-EAA) yöntemi kullanılmıştır. Yapılan doğrulama analizi
sonucunda EAA değeri 0.72 olarak belirlenmiş olup bu değer üretilen heyelan
duyarlılık haritasının oldukça başarılı bir kestirime sahip olduğunu
göstermektedir.

Keywords

Doğal afet, Duyarlılık, Heyelan, Trabzon

Landslide Susceptibility Analysis by Fuzzy Adaptive Resonance Theory (FuzzyART) Method: Tonya (Trabzon) Example

Abstract

In this study, use of the method called as fuzzy adaptive resonance
theory (FuzzyART) which is esentially a cluster classifier and has never been
used in landslide susceptibility literature was aimed in producing of landslide
susceptibility map. For this purpose, Tonya district belonging to Trabzon city
where shallow seated landslides occasionally happens and exposed to several
landslide-based hazards was chosen as study area.  Initially, lithology, altitude, slope
gradient, slope aspect, stream power index (SPI) and topographical wetness index
(TWI) data belonging to the study area were chosen to be conditioning
parameters needed for landslide susceptibility analysis. The landslide
inventory data showing past case inventory was used to be independent
parameter. From the conditioning parameters obtained, likelihood ratio (LR) values
for each of these parameters were calculated, and based on the calculated LR
values, susceptibility classes were determined for each of the sub-classes of
the each parameters. These susceptibility classes were used as training
parameter in the Fuzzy ART model applied. After obtaining the susceptibility
maps of each parameter from each preliminary parameter database trained by
FuzzyART, the final landslide susceptibility map of the study area was obtained
as a result of the collection of all the susceptibility maps obtained. To
perform the validation of the produced susceptibility map, area under curvature
(AUC) method was used. At the end of the validation analysis, the AUC value was
obtained to be 0.72, and this value shows that the susceptibility map produced
has a good prediction capability.

Keywords

Natural hazard, Susceptibility, Landslide, Trabzon

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