Güneydoğu Anadolu Bölgesi’ndeki aylık toplam tava buharlaşma verilerinin Mann-Kendall Testi ve Yenilikçi Şen Yöntemi ile trend analizi

Year 2021, , 1059 - 1070, 15.10.2021

Yavuz Avşaroğlu , Veysel Gümüş , Oğuz Şimşek , Latif Doğan Dinsever , Mehmet Kuş

https://doi.org/10.17714/gumusfenbil.908615

Abstract

Buharlaşma miktarındaki değişimin doğru bilinmesi, su kaynaklarının yönetimi, su ile ilgili yapıların tasarlanması ve su eylem planlarının hazırlanması için önemlidir. Bu çalışmada, Türkiye’nin önemli tarımsal alanlarını barındıran Güneydoğu Anadolu Bölgesi’ndeki Gaziantep, Şanlıurfa ve Mardin istasyonlarına ait aylık toplam tava buharlaşması verilerinin trendleri, parametrik olmayan Mann-Kendall (MK) testi ve Yenilikçi Şen Yöntemi (Innovative Trend Analysis-ITA) ile, lineer trend eğimleri ise Sen’in trend eğim metodu ile belirlenmiştir. Çalışma sonucunda, MK testine göre hesaplanan değerlere göre anlamlı trend sadece Şanlıurfa istasyonunda, mayıs ve eylül aylarında %95 güven aralığında, ekim ayında ise %90 güven aralığında artan yönde belirlenmiş ve bu istasyonda lineer trend eğim değerlerine göre en yüksek artış miktarı mayıs ayında %0.98/yıl olarak hesaplanmıştır. ITA yöntemine göre yapılan hesaplar sonucunda düşük, orta ve yüksek değerlerde trend varlığına rastlanmıştır. ITA yönteminin hesaplama kolaylığı, sonuçları grafiksel olarak verme yeteneği ile monotonik trend analizi yöntemlerine alternatif olarak kullanılabileceği sonucuna varılmıştır.

Keywords

Güneydoğu Anadolu Bölgesi, Mann-Kendall, Tava buharlaşması, Trend analizi, Yenilikçi Şen Yöntemi

Trend analysis of monthly total pan evaporation data of Southeast Anatolia Region with Mann-Kendall Test and Innovative Sen Method

Abstract

Determining the change in the amount of evaporation is important for water resources management, design of water structures and preparing water action plans. In this study, trends of total monthly pan evaporation data for Gaziantep, Şanlıurfa and Mardin stations located as Southeastern Anatolia Region, which is important agricultural area of Turkey, are carried out using non-parametric Mann-Kendall (MK) and Innovative Trend Analysis (ITA) methods. The linear trend slope is determined with Sen's slope method. As a result of the study, the significant increasing trend is found with MK test in May and September at 95% confidence level and in October at 90% confidence level. The highest increase in this station according to the linear trend slope values is calculated 0.98%/year. As a result of analysis with ITA method, there is a trend occurrence in low, medium, and high values. It is concluded that ITA method can be used as an alternative method to monotonic trend analysis methods, since its ease of calculation and its ability to give results graphically.

Keywords

Southeastern Anatolia Region, Mann-Kendall, Tan evaporation, Trend analysis, Innovative trend analysis

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