Forecasting Total Energy Demand with Grey Prediction Models: The Case of Turkey

Year 2020, Volume: 10 Issue: 3, 771 - 782, 15.07.2020

Hüseyin Avni Es

https://doi.org/10.17714/gumusfenbil.676909

Cited By: 5

Abstract

Energy demand forecasts are
needed for developing and emerging countries to be able to determine
sustainable energy policies. Grey prediction models can make successful
predictions with limited data without the need for any prior information. In
this study, Grey prediction models are considered for the total energy demand
of Turkey that shows significant economic and social development in recent
years. Grey prediction includes forecasting models based on time series and
cause-effect relationships. Four different grey prediction models including GM
(1,1) and Grey Verhulst from the time series models, and GM (0,N) and GM (1,N)
based on the cause-effect relationships were discussed. The purpose of using
two types of forecasting structures is to achieve reliable and strong forecasts
by capturing the recent trend with the time series and obtaining the change in
energy demand by cause-effect relationship. GM (1,1) and Grey Verhulst model
has been established with past total energy consumption data. By using
independent variables of GDP, population, import, export and building surface
area for GM (0, N) and GM (1, N) models, GM (0,6) and GM (1,6) models were
formed. All applied models have been compared according to performance
criteria, GM (1,1) and GM (1,6) have been designated to be superior models that
performed successful predictions. As a result; Turkey’s total energy demand has
been forecasted up to 2025 with GM (1,1) based on time series and GM (1,6)
including high and low scenarios.

Keywords

Grey Prediction Models, Forecasting, Total Energy Demand, Turkey

Gri Tahmin Modelleri ile Toplam Enerji Talep Tahmini: Türkiye Örneği

Abstract

Gelişen ve gelişmekte olan ülkelerin,
sürdürülebilir enerji politikaları belirleyebilmesinde enerji talep
tahminlerine ihtiyaç duyulmaktadır. Gri tahmin modelleri, önceden herhangi bir ön
bilgiye ihtiyaç duymadan sınırlı veri ile başarılı tahminler gerçekleştirebilmektedir.
Bu çalışmada, son dönemde önemli ekonomik ve sosyal gelişme gösteren
Türkiye’nin toplam enerji talebi için Gri tahmin modelleri dikkate alınmıştır.
Gri tahmin; zaman serisi ve sebep-sonuç ilişkisine dayalı çeşitli tahmin
modellerini içermektedir. Çalışma kapsamında; zaman serisi modellerinden
GM(1,1) ve Gri Verhulst ile sebep-sonuç ilişkisine dayalı GM(0,N) ve GM (1,N) modelleri
olmak üzere dört farklı gri tahmin modeli ele alınmıştır. İki çeşit tahmin
yapısının kullanılmasındaki amaç; son dönemdeki trendin zaman serisi ile
yakalanması ve enerji talebindeki değişimin sebep-sonuç ilişkisiyle elde
edilmesi sağlanarak güvenilir ve güçlü tahminlere ulaşmaktır. GM (1,1) ve Gri
Verhulst modelleri geçmiş toplam enerji tüketim verileri ile kurulmuştur. GM
(0,N) ve GM (1,N) modellerinde ise; GSYH, nüfus, ithalat, ihracat ve bina
yüzölçümü bağımsız değişkenleri kullanılarak GM (0,6) ve GM (1,6) modelleri
oluşturulmuştur. Kurulan tüm modeller performans ölçütlerine göre kıyaslanmış,
başarılı tahmin gerçekleştiren üstün modellerin GM (1,1) ve GM (1,6) olduğu belirlenmiştir.
Sonuç olarak; GM (1,1) ile zaman serisi ve GM (1,6) ile yüksek ve düşük senaryo
bazlı olmak üzere Türkiye toplam enerji talebi 2025 yılına kadar tahmin
edilmiştir.

Keywords

Gri Tahmin Modelleri, Tahmin, Toplam Enerji Talebi, Türkiye

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