Comparison of a random model of Hand-Foot-Mouth Disease model with Gaussian and Laplacian parameters

Year 2022, Volume: 12 Issue: 1, 200 - 210, 15.01.2022

Zafer Bekiryazıcı Saime Hasimoglu

https://doi.org/10.17714/gumusfenbil.973990

Abstract

In this study, we investigate the transmission dynamics of Hand-Foot-Mouth disease (HFMD) using a differential equation system with random parameters. We transform the parameters of the existing deterministic model into random variables with Normal and Laplace distributions. Using the results from the simulations of the random model, we analyze the changes in the compartments of the total population. The random model, unlike the deterministic system, enables the analysis of the variations in the transmission dynamics of the disease. Finally, the randomness of the system is interpreted through the comparison of the results from the deterministic and random models.

Keywords

Hand-Foot-Mouth Disease, Laplace distribution, Normal distribution, Random differential equation, Simulation

Bir rastgele El-Ayak-Ağız Hastalığı modelinin Normal ve Laplace dağılımına sahip parametrelerle karşılaştırılması

Abstract

Bu çalışmada, El-Ayak-Ağız Hastalığının yayılım dinamikleri bir diferansiyel denklem sistemi ve rastgele parametreler kullanarak incelenmektedir. Var olan deterministik modelin parametreleri Normal dağılım ve Laplace dağılımına sahip rastgele değişkenler haline getirilmektedir. Rastgele modelin simülasyonlarından elde edilen sonuçlarla toplam nüfusun kompartmanlarındaki değişimler analiz edilmektedir. Rastgele model, deterministik sistemin aksine, hastalığın yayılım dinamiklerindeki varyasyonların analizine imkan sağlamaktadır. Son olarak, sistemin rastgele yapısı deterministik ve rastgele sonuçların karşılaştırılması ile yorumlanmaktadır.

Keywords

El-Ayak-Ağız Hastalığı, Laplace dağılımı, Normal dağılım, Rastgele diferansiyel denklem, Simülasyon

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