ARE OVERCONFIDENCE AND LOSS AVERSION BIASES IMPORTANT FACTORS IN INVESTMENT DECISIONS?

Year 2020, Volume: 9 Issue: 17, 38 - 54, 09.07.2020

Selim Cengiz , Bilgehan Tekin

Abstract

In the behavioral finance literature, we see that many international studies investigate the effect of behavioral biases on investment decisions. Two of these behavioral biases are overconfidence and loss aversion. In this context, the main purpose of the study is to reveal whether investors' risk-taking behaviors and demographic features are effective on their investment decisions. Another aim of the study is to determine whether the overconfidence scale used in many international studies has been useful in measuring investors' overconfidence. Within the scope of the study, a questionnaire was applied to academic and administrative staff working at Çankırı Karatekin University. The data obtained were analyzed by correlation and regression analysis, dependent / independent groups t-tests. As a result of the study, it was determined that overconfidence is an effective factor in choosing risky investment tools, but loss aversion has no effect on the investment instrument preference. In addition, in this study, one of the findings of the study conducted by Kahneman and Tversky (1979) that “the individuals take risk to avoid losses, but they avoid risk in the case of gains” is tested and confirmed.

Keywords

Overconfidence, Loss Aversion, Investment Decision, Behavioral Finance.

KENDİNE AŞIRI GÜVEN VE KAYIPTAN KAÇINMA ÖNYARGILARI YATIRIM KARARLARINDA ÖNEMLİ BİR FAKTÖR MÜ?

Abstract

Bu çalışmanın amacı, uluslararası literatürde üzerinde oldukça sık durulan yatırımcıların kararları üzerinde etkisi olan faktörlerin neler olduğu konusunun davranışsal finans dikkate alınarak incelenmesidir. Bu bağlamda davranışsal finans alanında uluslararası düzeyde yapılan çok sayıda çalışmaya konu olmuş davranışsal önyargıların, yatırım kararları üzerindeki etkisi incelenmiştir. Söz konusu davranışsal önyargılar ise kendine aşırı güven ve kayıptan kaçınmadır. Çalışmada öncelikle kendine aşırı güven ve kayıptan kaçınma davranışsal önyargıları ile ilgili bilgiler verilmiştir. Daha sonra ölçme yöntemlerinden bahsedilmiş ve analiz kısmına geçilmiştir. Çalışmada kullanılan kendine aşırı güven ölçeği, bu kapsamda Türkiye’ de yapılan çalışmalar arasında ilk defa kullanılmıştır. Bu nedenle bu çalışmanın bir diğer amacı ilgili ölçeğin yatırımcıların kendine aşırı güvenlerinin ölçümünde yararlı olup olmadığının tespitidir. Veri toplamak amacıyla kullanılan anket formu Çankırı Karatekin Üniversitesi’nde görevli akademik ve idari personele uygulanmıştır. Toplanan veriler üzerinden korelasyon ve regresyon analizleri, bağımlı ve bağımsız gruplar t-testleri gerçekleştirilmiştir. Çalışma sonucunda kendine aşırı güvenin riskli yatırım araçlarını tercih etmede etkili bir faktör olduğu buna karşın kayıptan kaçınmanın yatırım aracı tercihi üzerinde herhangi bir etkisi olmadığı tespit edilmiştir. Bu çalışmada ayrıca Kahneman ve Tversky (1979) tarafından yapılan çalışmanın bulgularından biri olan bireylerin kayıplardan kaçınmak için risk almalarına karşın kazançlar söz konusu olduğunda riskten kaçındıkları bulgusu da test edilmiş ve doğrulanmıştır.

Keywords

Kayıptan Kaçınma, Yatırım Kararı, Davranışsal Finans

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